Morgan Stanley on the lookout for signs of consumer recovery during August earnings season
In a research note to clients overnight Tuesday, the investment back indicated it would keep an eye on retailers' sales and margin trajectories for the 2026 financial year.
The analysts noted while the consumer outlook was more 'constructive', several retailers have called out incremental weakness and softer trading conditions. They include Accent Group, Myer, Super Retail Group, Bapcor, KMD Brands and Adairs.
Category trends are also in focus for the upcoming earnings season, with weakness in apparel and alcohol compared with growth in electronics.
Morgan Stanley has an 'overweight' rating on Sigma Healthcare versus an 'equal weight' rating on Endeavour Group — owner of Dan Murphy's and BWS — as consumers continued to prioritise health and wellness.
'Decline in traditional quick-service restaurant performance and alcohol consumption is increasingly appearing more structural than cyclical as consumer preferences shift toward healthier options,' it said.
Morgan Stanley says while household incomes will improve through 2025 and 2026, it expects a cautious response from spending.
It added flow through from additional rate cuts was required before there was meaningful turnaround in consumer sentiment.
Electronics giant JB Hi-Fi — also behind The Good Guys — will kick off the first full week of earnings season when it reports 2025 financial year results on August 11.
The last week of August is shaping up to be jam-packed, with Endeavour, Coles, Woolworths, Domino's Pizza, Wesfarmers and Harvey Norman among the major retailers reporting.
It comes as National Australia Bank on Wednesday revealed online retail sales grew 2.6 per cent month-on-month in June.
All States recorded growth in June, with a strong rebound for South Australia, WA and Tasmania — all of which posted a drop in May.
The bank estimates in the 12 months to June, Australians spent just over $64 billion on online retail.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release retail trade data for June on Thursday.
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The Advertiser
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The solution to Australia's skills shortage hiding in plain sight
In Australia today, like the proverbial chameleon in the crowd, there is an issue and its solution hiding in plain sight. Migrants and refugees are struggling to get jobs that befit their skills and experience. At the same time, we have a critical skills shortage. Migrants and refugees face barriers, including a lack of local experience and networks, English language proficiency or pronunciation and a lack of familiarity with Australian workplace culture and the job market. There are also difficulties and barriers, including exorbitant costs, in getting overseas qualifications recognised in Australia. These structural barriers inhibit positive migrant and refugee career outcomes. Also, employers can be reticent or unsure about hiring migrants and refugees, and mainstream employment services often are either not accessible or unsuited to migrants and refugees. Easily available statistics and research paint a picture of the effect of this situation. Migrants from non-English-speaking countries suffer persistent wage gaps, and overseas-educated migrants earn less than similarly qualified Australians, particularly those from culturally diverse backgrounds. Poor English can affect employment, with 44 per cent of migrants and refugees working below their skill level, even though 57 per cent of them hold university qualifications. And strong accents or a lack of knowledge of local industry jargon exacerbates the problem. At the same time, we know there are critical workforce shortages across a plethora of sectors. The current shortfall of GPs in Australia will rise to 3900 in 2028 and to more than 8900 in 2028; and the undersupply of nurses will rise to almost 80,000 by 2035. Engineers Australia has reported that the nation's engineering skills and labour shortage are at their highest level in a decade. And Master Builders Australia says 130,000 extra tradies will be needed by 2029 to meet the growing demand for new housing. 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Better harnessing the skills and experience of migrants would deliver economic dividends through addressing professional workforce shortages, boosting productivity and reducing the overall cost of creating the professional workforce we need. This is evidenced in some simple numbers. It costs Australia anywhere from $180,000 to $500,000 - including Commonwealth Place Supported funding - to produce a registered doctor. For overseas trained medicos, that figure is around $28,500 - and it could be lower with more streamlined qualifications recognition. Better utilising migrant and refugee skills would also deliver a social dividend through the better integration of newcomers into the community, thus bolstering social cohesion and further supporting disadvantaged cohorts of migrants and refugees. To do this, we need to address the three pillars of the problem: providing access to gap training and qualification recognition; preparing people for Australia's workplace culture and environment; and addressing employer attitudes and bias toward international skills. Practically, this provides a collective approach to reduce the cost and simplify the processes for requalification and qualification, with clearly communicated pathways. We need to support employers to be more confident about overseas-trained staff through incentives and programs to address discrimination. This includes our looking at our recruitment practices and critically assessing whether they are a barrier to accessing migrant talent. We need to support migrants and refugees with job readiness training initiatives, such as the Skilled Professional Migrant Program delivered by my organisation, AMES Australia. Recently, we commissioned an economist to run the numbers on the effect of a national rollout of the program, a scheme that has a proven record of supporting migrants and refugees into jobs commensurate with their skills and qualifications. The paper, produced by Dr Ian Pringle, found utilising the skills and experience migrants and refugees bring with them could benefit Australia's economy by as much as $10 billion over five years. It found that supporting new arrivals to re-establish their professional careers in Australia could generate more than $2.5 billion in extra tax receipts as well as an extra $8 billion in earnings circulating in the economy over five years. What's more is that the extra access to skills could also produce a 10 per cent spike in productivity. The skills gap is an issue that has evolved again and again over time. Historically, Australia's response has been a siloed approach when what we have is an economic problem that needs a systemic all-of-the-economy response. It's a problem that we have identified but failed to properly pin down and solve over decades. That's the reason why Australia needs a national and integrated initiative to harness the skills of migrants and refugees, while reaping the economic and social benefits that it would bring before that chameleon changes its colour and disappears into the crowd again. In Australia today, like the proverbial chameleon in the crowd, there is an issue and its solution hiding in plain sight. Migrants and refugees are struggling to get jobs that befit their skills and experience. At the same time, we have a critical skills shortage. Migrants and refugees face barriers, including a lack of local experience and networks, English language proficiency or pronunciation and a lack of familiarity with Australian workplace culture and the job market. There are also difficulties and barriers, including exorbitant costs, in getting overseas qualifications recognised in Australia. These structural barriers inhibit positive migrant and refugee career outcomes. Also, employers can be reticent or unsure about hiring migrants and refugees, and mainstream employment services often are either not accessible or unsuited to migrants and refugees. Easily available statistics and research paint a picture of the effect of this situation. Migrants from non-English-speaking countries suffer persistent wage gaps, and overseas-educated migrants earn less than similarly qualified Australians, particularly those from culturally diverse backgrounds. Poor English can affect employment, with 44 per cent of migrants and refugees working below their skill level, even though 57 per cent of them hold university qualifications. And strong accents or a lack of knowledge of local industry jargon exacerbates the problem. At the same time, we know there are critical workforce shortages across a plethora of sectors. The current shortfall of GPs in Australia will rise to 3900 in 2028 and to more than 8900 in 2028; and the undersupply of nurses will rise to almost 80,000 by 2035. Engineers Australia has reported that the nation's engineering skills and labour shortage are at their highest level in a decade. And Master Builders Australia says 130,000 extra tradies will be needed by 2029 to meet the growing demand for new housing. The Commonwealth government's Jobs and Skills Australia agency has estimated that 67 occupations covered by the Technicians and Trades Workers category are in chronic and long-term shortage, representing about one-third of all skills shortages across the country. These shortages are pushing up construction costs and are worse in rural and regional areas, many of which are vulnerable to natural disasters. The boom in renewable energy, data centres to support AI and major infrastructure projects as well as our aging populations and increased demand in care sectors mean these shortages are neither short term nor geographically limited. Making matters worse is global competition for skilled migrants, competition between states within Australia for workers with critical skills and the leakage of skilled workers from regional areas to the cities. But this situation is also an economic opportunity for Australia. Better harnessing the skills and experience of migrants would deliver economic dividends through addressing professional workforce shortages, boosting productivity and reducing the overall cost of creating the professional workforce we need. This is evidenced in some simple numbers. It costs Australia anywhere from $180,000 to $500,000 - including Commonwealth Place Supported funding - to produce a registered doctor. For overseas trained medicos, that figure is around $28,500 - and it could be lower with more streamlined qualifications recognition. Better utilising migrant and refugee skills would also deliver a social dividend through the better integration of newcomers into the community, thus bolstering social cohesion and further supporting disadvantaged cohorts of migrants and refugees. To do this, we need to address the three pillars of the problem: providing access to gap training and qualification recognition; preparing people for Australia's workplace culture and environment; and addressing employer attitudes and bias toward international skills. Practically, this provides a collective approach to reduce the cost and simplify the processes for requalification and qualification, with clearly communicated pathways. We need to support employers to be more confident about overseas-trained staff through incentives and programs to address discrimination. This includes our looking at our recruitment practices and critically assessing whether they are a barrier to accessing migrant talent. We need to support migrants and refugees with job readiness training initiatives, such as the Skilled Professional Migrant Program delivered by my organisation, AMES Australia. Recently, we commissioned an economist to run the numbers on the effect of a national rollout of the program, a scheme that has a proven record of supporting migrants and refugees into jobs commensurate with their skills and qualifications. The paper, produced by Dr Ian Pringle, found utilising the skills and experience migrants and refugees bring with them could benefit Australia's economy by as much as $10 billion over five years. It found that supporting new arrivals to re-establish their professional careers in Australia could generate more than $2.5 billion in extra tax receipts as well as an extra $8 billion in earnings circulating in the economy over five years. What's more is that the extra access to skills could also produce a 10 per cent spike in productivity. The skills gap is an issue that has evolved again and again over time. Historically, Australia's response has been a siloed approach when what we have is an economic problem that needs a systemic all-of-the-economy response. It's a problem that we have identified but failed to properly pin down and solve over decades. That's the reason why Australia needs a national and integrated initiative to harness the skills of migrants and refugees, while reaping the economic and social benefits that it would bring before that chameleon changes its colour and disappears into the crowd again. In Australia today, like the proverbial chameleon in the crowd, there is an issue and its solution hiding in plain sight. Migrants and refugees are struggling to get jobs that befit their skills and experience. At the same time, we have a critical skills shortage. Migrants and refugees face barriers, including a lack of local experience and networks, English language proficiency or pronunciation and a lack of familiarity with Australian workplace culture and the job market. There are also difficulties and barriers, including exorbitant costs, in getting overseas qualifications recognised in Australia. These structural barriers inhibit positive migrant and refugee career outcomes. Also, employers can be reticent or unsure about hiring migrants and refugees, and mainstream employment services often are either not accessible or unsuited to migrants and refugees. Easily available statistics and research paint a picture of the effect of this situation. Migrants from non-English-speaking countries suffer persistent wage gaps, and overseas-educated migrants earn less than similarly qualified Australians, particularly those from culturally diverse backgrounds. Poor English can affect employment, with 44 per cent of migrants and refugees working below their skill level, even though 57 per cent of them hold university qualifications. And strong accents or a lack of knowledge of local industry jargon exacerbates the problem. At the same time, we know there are critical workforce shortages across a plethora of sectors. The current shortfall of GPs in Australia will rise to 3900 in 2028 and to more than 8900 in 2028; and the undersupply of nurses will rise to almost 80,000 by 2035. Engineers Australia has reported that the nation's engineering skills and labour shortage are at their highest level in a decade. And Master Builders Australia says 130,000 extra tradies will be needed by 2029 to meet the growing demand for new housing. The Commonwealth government's Jobs and Skills Australia agency has estimated that 67 occupations covered by the Technicians and Trades Workers category are in chronic and long-term shortage, representing about one-third of all skills shortages across the country. These shortages are pushing up construction costs and are worse in rural and regional areas, many of which are vulnerable to natural disasters. The boom in renewable energy, data centres to support AI and major infrastructure projects as well as our aging populations and increased demand in care sectors mean these shortages are neither short term nor geographically limited. Making matters worse is global competition for skilled migrants, competition between states within Australia for workers with critical skills and the leakage of skilled workers from regional areas to the cities. But this situation is also an economic opportunity for Australia. Better harnessing the skills and experience of migrants would deliver economic dividends through addressing professional workforce shortages, boosting productivity and reducing the overall cost of creating the professional workforce we need. This is evidenced in some simple numbers. It costs Australia anywhere from $180,000 to $500,000 - including Commonwealth Place Supported funding - to produce a registered doctor. For overseas trained medicos, that figure is around $28,500 - and it could be lower with more streamlined qualifications recognition. Better utilising migrant and refugee skills would also deliver a social dividend through the better integration of newcomers into the community, thus bolstering social cohesion and further supporting disadvantaged cohorts of migrants and refugees. To do this, we need to address the three pillars of the problem: providing access to gap training and qualification recognition; preparing people for Australia's workplace culture and environment; and addressing employer attitudes and bias toward international skills. Practically, this provides a collective approach to reduce the cost and simplify the processes for requalification and qualification, with clearly communicated pathways. We need to support employers to be more confident about overseas-trained staff through incentives and programs to address discrimination. This includes our looking at our recruitment practices and critically assessing whether they are a barrier to accessing migrant talent. We need to support migrants and refugees with job readiness training initiatives, such as the Skilled Professional Migrant Program delivered by my organisation, AMES Australia. Recently, we commissioned an economist to run the numbers on the effect of a national rollout of the program, a scheme that has a proven record of supporting migrants and refugees into jobs commensurate with their skills and qualifications. The paper, produced by Dr Ian Pringle, found utilising the skills and experience migrants and refugees bring with them could benefit Australia's economy by as much as $10 billion over five years. It found that supporting new arrivals to re-establish their professional careers in Australia could generate more than $2.5 billion in extra tax receipts as well as an extra $8 billion in earnings circulating in the economy over five years. What's more is that the extra access to skills could also produce a 10 per cent spike in productivity. The skills gap is an issue that has evolved again and again over time. Historically, Australia's response has been a siloed approach when what we have is an economic problem that needs a systemic all-of-the-economy response. It's a problem that we have identified but failed to properly pin down and solve over decades. That's the reason why Australia needs a national and integrated initiative to harness the skills of migrants and refugees, while reaping the economic and social benefits that it would bring before that chameleon changes its colour and disappears into the crowd again. In Australia today, like the proverbial chameleon in the crowd, there is an issue and its solution hiding in plain sight. Migrants and refugees are struggling to get jobs that befit their skills and experience. At the same time, we have a critical skills shortage. Migrants and refugees face barriers, including a lack of local experience and networks, English language proficiency or pronunciation and a lack of familiarity with Australian workplace culture and the job market. There are also difficulties and barriers, including exorbitant costs, in getting overseas qualifications recognised in Australia. These structural barriers inhibit positive migrant and refugee career outcomes. Also, employers can be reticent or unsure about hiring migrants and refugees, and mainstream employment services often are either not accessible or unsuited to migrants and refugees. Easily available statistics and research paint a picture of the effect of this situation. Migrants from non-English-speaking countries suffer persistent wage gaps, and overseas-educated migrants earn less than similarly qualified Australians, particularly those from culturally diverse backgrounds. Poor English can affect employment, with 44 per cent of migrants and refugees working below their skill level, even though 57 per cent of them hold university qualifications. And strong accents or a lack of knowledge of local industry jargon exacerbates the problem. At the same time, we know there are critical workforce shortages across a plethora of sectors. The current shortfall of GPs in Australia will rise to 3900 in 2028 and to more than 8900 in 2028; and the undersupply of nurses will rise to almost 80,000 by 2035. Engineers Australia has reported that the nation's engineering skills and labour shortage are at their highest level in a decade. And Master Builders Australia says 130,000 extra tradies will be needed by 2029 to meet the growing demand for new housing. The Commonwealth government's Jobs and Skills Australia agency has estimated that 67 occupations covered by the Technicians and Trades Workers category are in chronic and long-term shortage, representing about one-third of all skills shortages across the country. These shortages are pushing up construction costs and are worse in rural and regional areas, many of which are vulnerable to natural disasters. The boom in renewable energy, data centres to support AI and major infrastructure projects as well as our aging populations and increased demand in care sectors mean these shortages are neither short term nor geographically limited. Making matters worse is global competition for skilled migrants, competition between states within Australia for workers with critical skills and the leakage of skilled workers from regional areas to the cities. But this situation is also an economic opportunity for Australia. Better harnessing the skills and experience of migrants would deliver economic dividends through addressing professional workforce shortages, boosting productivity and reducing the overall cost of creating the professional workforce we need. This is evidenced in some simple numbers. It costs Australia anywhere from $180,000 to $500,000 - including Commonwealth Place Supported funding - to produce a registered doctor. For overseas trained medicos, that figure is around $28,500 - and it could be lower with more streamlined qualifications recognition. Better utilising migrant and refugee skills would also deliver a social dividend through the better integration of newcomers into the community, thus bolstering social cohesion and further supporting disadvantaged cohorts of migrants and refugees. To do this, we need to address the three pillars of the problem: providing access to gap training and qualification recognition; preparing people for Australia's workplace culture and environment; and addressing employer attitudes and bias toward international skills. Practically, this provides a collective approach to reduce the cost and simplify the processes for requalification and qualification, with clearly communicated pathways. We need to support employers to be more confident about overseas-trained staff through incentives and programs to address discrimination. This includes our looking at our recruitment practices and critically assessing whether they are a barrier to accessing migrant talent. We need to support migrants and refugees with job readiness training initiatives, such as the Skilled Professional Migrant Program delivered by my organisation, AMES Australia. Recently, we commissioned an economist to run the numbers on the effect of a national rollout of the program, a scheme that has a proven record of supporting migrants and refugees into jobs commensurate with their skills and qualifications. The paper, produced by Dr Ian Pringle, found utilising the skills and experience migrants and refugees bring with them could benefit Australia's economy by as much as $10 billion over five years. It found that supporting new arrivals to re-establish their professional careers in Australia could generate more than $2.5 billion in extra tax receipts as well as an extra $8 billion in earnings circulating in the economy over five years. What's more is that the extra access to skills could also produce a 10 per cent spike in productivity. The skills gap is an issue that has evolved again and again over time. Historically, Australia's response has been a siloed approach when what we have is an economic problem that needs a systemic all-of-the-economy response. It's a problem that we have identified but failed to properly pin down and solve over decades. That's the reason why Australia needs a national and integrated initiative to harness the skills of migrants and refugees, while reaping the economic and social benefits that it would bring before that chameleon changes its colour and disappears into the crowd again.
