Clean energy's bleak outlook

Politico

7 days ago

The country's largest renewable installers and manufacturers reported financial earnings today for the first time since passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
The takeaway: Clean energy projects are moving forward for now — but the outlook for additional renewable development is bleak.
NextEra Energy's call perhaps best underscored the rapidly shifting energy and political landscape. The country's largest renewable installer called President Donald Trump's budget law — which rolls back wind and solar tax incentives — 'tough, but constructive.'
'New gas and nuclear are on the way and will be critical to meeting demand over the long term,' said CEO John Ketchum. 'Renewables and storage can bridge the gap and will play an important role in an all-of-the-above future.'
'All of the above' and 'bridge fuel' were once widely used to signal a continued role for fossil fuels in a country rapidly pursuing a renewables build-out. Now, the clean energy industry has flipped the meaning to promote wind and solar at a time when Trump is demanding more fossil fuel production.
NextEra executives expressed confidence they would be able to bring online new wind and solar projects in time to receive credits that the GOP megalaw is phasing out.
The company is also pitching renewables as the cheap option to quickly add power to the grid. An earnings presentation shared with investors Wednesday estimated that new wind and storage projects cost $25-$50 per megawatt-hour, while solar and storage cost $35-$75 per MWh — compared to $90-$115 for combined cycle gas plants and $130-$150 for small modular nuclear reactors.
A $1 billion hit
Trump's moves have hit the offshore wind industry particularly hard.
On its call Wednesday, Equinor announced a $955 million write-down driven by its expectation that few, if any, offshore wind projects will come online after Empire Wind 1 is complete. The Trump administration halted that New York project for a month earlier this year — a move that cost the company $50 million a week.
GE Vernova, the turbine-maker, reported a robust quarter for gas turbine sales and grid infrastructure like transformers and switchgear.
As for wind turbines? Not so much. Sales there continue to lag. The company reported orders of $2.7 billion through the first six months of 2025, compared to $3.3 billion over the same period last year.
The Spanish power giant Iberdrola, however, struck an optimistic note Wednesday. It reported that 17 of the 62 turbines at Vineyard Wind 1 are sending electricity to the New England grid — and said it expects a second project, New England Wind, could qualify for federal tax credits if it starts construction within the next year.
But prospects for New England Wind appear grim. Negotiations between Avangrid, an Iberdrola subsidiary, and Massachusetts over a power contract for the project have been repeatedly delayed this year.
It's Wednesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Benjamin Storrow. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to [e-mail].
Today in POLITICO Energy's podcast: Garrett Downs breaks down how Utah Republican Sen. Mike Lee's plan to sell public lands was stripped from the megalaw.
Power Centers
White House rolls out plans for AIThe White House on Wednesday outlined 90 actions federal agencies should take to accelerate the development of artificial intelligence, Christa Marshall writes.
Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright have stressed the need for the U.S. to lead on AI to counter China's rise on related technologies. The plan includes a call to hold back funding for states that hinder AI development and directs the Department of Commerce to eliminate climate change from its 'risk management' AI framework, among other suggestions.
'This plan galvanizes Federal efforts to turbocharge our innovation capacity, build cutting-edge infrastructure, and lead globally, ensuring that American workers and families thrive in the AI era. We are moving with urgency to make this vision a reality,' White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios said in a statement.
Never mind the scienceThe Trump administration plans to argue that federal law does not require agencies to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, writes Zack Colman.
The move is designed to dismantle virtually all U.S. limits on climate pollution — and avoids challenging the science behind the so-called endangerment finding, which in 2009 laid out how greenhouse gases threaten human health.
Instead, the administration may assert that a key 2007 Supreme Court ruling allowed but did not require the agency to regulate greenhouse gases, according to the three people who were granted anonymity to discuss a draft regulation not yet made public.
The Environmental Protection Agency has been conspicuously missing from White House meetings to discuss revoking the endangerment finding, as Jean Chemnick reports.
Green lobbying blitz yielded littleRenewable energy lobbyists spent millions trying to save their priorities from a wave of Republican attacks in recent months, Timothy Cama and Kelsey Brugger write.
They have little to show for it. The recently signed megalaw slashed the timetables for wind and solar tax credits. But it didn't end them immediately.
'Was it a failure? No, absolutely not. Every single Republican voted against the IRA in the first place, so anything north of complete repeal was a win,' said Colin Hayes, founding partner at Lot Sixteen, which has a number of clean energy clients.
That's not to say advocates are satisfied with their investment.
'We all failed to appreciate just the intensity of the desire to undo any fraction of any figment of any remaining Biden policy,' American Clean Power Association CEO Jason Grumet said on POLITICO's Energy podcast.
Legal showdown asks: Who's in charge of small nuclear reactors?States and developers are suing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission over the licensing of smaller reactors, and the outcome could reshape the agency's authority, Francisco 'A.J.' Camacho writes.
The complaint, originally brought by developer Last Energy and the states of Texas and Utah, alleges that the NRC doesn't have the authority to license small modular reactors and some microreactors. And they say the agency is slowing down the industry at a time when it's being called on to address growing electricity demand.
'Although the case is still in its early stages, a successful legal challenge could significantly reshape the regulatory landscape for some reactors in the United States,' Judi Greenwald, president and CEO of the Nuclear Innovation Alliance, told A.J.
In Other News
Hot topic: Heat waves in Europe have inflamed political battles about the benefits of air conditioning.
Endangered finding: EPA has drafted a plan to rescind a finding that forms the basis for regulating greenhouse gas emissions.
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The Department of Energy canceled a $4.9 billion loan guarantee for the Grain Belt Express transmission line.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved requests from two grid operators to fast-track projects to meet skyrocketing demand.
The head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency was unable to tell lawmakers today whether the agency would continue under the Trump administration.
That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.