logo
Oil prices on course for biggest monthly fall since 2021

Oil prices on course for biggest monthly fall since 2021

Yahoo30-04-2025
The pound fell against the dollar on Wednesday after a strong week of gains which had pushed it to its highest point since September.
Sterling slipped 0.2% lower, to trade below the $1.34 mark. The dollar strengthened even as fears of a recession in the US begin to solidify.
Wall Street firms have raised their odds of a year-end recession, citing growing risks from president Trump's aggressive trade policies. But with tariffs creating whiplash for businesses and consumers alike, economists caution that the impact could arrive sooner than anticipated, casting uncertainty over the broader outlook.
The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.2%.
Sterling also fell against the euro, heading 0.2% lower to trade below the 1.18 mark.
Gold prices pulled back further from all-time highs of $3,500 on Wednesday dropping around 1.2% by late-morning as geopolitical tensions eased slightly.
Spot gold dipped 0.2%, while US futures slid 0.5%, pressured by a modest rebound in the dollar index.
"The recent de-escalation in US trade friction — highlighted by Trump's tariff relief orders and China's rollback of its 125% ethane duty — has dialled down the geopolitical risk premium that had been fuelling bullion's historic rally," said Mohamed Radwan, lead analyst at XMarabia.
The dip represents short-term profit taking by investors, as opposed to a longer-term shift, Radwan added.
He said: "The metal's role as a hedge against policy uncertainty, currency debasement, and financial stress remains intact — especially with global central banks still cautious and rate paths unclear. Until the Fed firmly signals a pivot or economic momentum reaccelerates, gold retains its strategic appeal."
A firm dollar also contributed to the dip. A strong dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers outside the US.
Oil prices fell further on Wednesday, putting them on course for their biggest monthly fall since 2021.
Brent crude futures were down 0.8%, to trade around $62.75 a barrel by late-morning, while West Texas Intermediate dipped 0.9%, hitting the $59.87 a barrel mark.
The drop comes as concerns about supply are mounting and the ongoing global trade war has put doubt in the minds of traders about demand.
According to Reuters, Brent and WTI have lost 15.4% and 17% respectively, in April, the biggest percentage drops since November 2021.
Bets are mounting of a global recession this year, with restrictive tariff policies from the Trump administration being a sticking point for growth.
OPEC+ members ramping up supply output is also a concern heading into the summer.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Interest Rates Are More Complicated Than The Fed And 10-Year Treasury
Interest Rates Are More Complicated Than The Fed And 10-Year Treasury

Forbes

time3 minutes ago

  • Forbes

Interest Rates Are More Complicated Than The Fed And 10-Year Treasury

Man carrying heavy stone with growing interest rate symbol increasing debt. 3D. getty The Wall Street Journal 's editorial board wrote about interest rates this week. They tried to explain that a change by the Federal Reserve in its short-term benchmark federal funds rate on Wednesday wouldn't necessarily improve borrowing costs. They're right to a degree, but the explanation is overly simplified and seems to miss the biggest point: how global markets, not the Fed, are the real force. Interest rates at all levels are always based on fundamental rates with an additional amount for risk. To understand what rates will be, the question is which reference value is in place and how much is added. The Journal noted that expectations are for the part of the Fed that sets rates, the Federal Open Market Committee, to keep the federal funds rate at its current 4.25%–4.5%. What the editorial board called a 'rate-cutting spree' last fall that was 'premature' set off a run-up of yields on the 10-year Treasury Note. The response was unusual; historically, the Treasury yield curve has fallen with the federal funds rate. There was a rebound in unexpected consumer inflation. 'This climb in yields coincided with a rebound in consumer-price inflation that the Fed didn't expect. After flattening through October, the consumer-price index rose 0.3% in November, 0.4% in December, and 0.5% in January. The FOMC hadn't conquered inflation by September as its members had thought. It is good to remember that, at the time, the Journal 's editorial board admonished the Fed: 'The real risk for the Fed is if it embarks on a monetary easing cycle that stops the current disinflation and causes prices to rise again.' It was a risk; they were right. 'That's critical because the rates that matter most to the economy are longer rates, especially the 10-year Treasury,' they wrote. 'Those are rates that most affect corporate borrowing and consumer mortgages.' The Broader View Of Interest Rates The federal funds rate and the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note are both critical to interest rates for commercial and consumer needs. But they aren't the only ones. The federal funds rate range is the set of interest rates that banks charge one another for overnight unsecured loans. The secure overnight financing rate (SOFR) also involves short-term borrowing called repurchase agreements (repo) backed by Treasury securities. SOFR is calculated by ongoing calculations of loan terms, so ultimately controlled by market activity. Put more formally by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 'The SOFR is calculated as a volume-weighted median of transaction-level tri-party repo data collected from the Bank of New York Mellon as well as GCF Repo transaction data and data on bilateral Treasury repo transactions cleared through FICC's DVP service, which are obtained from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Financial Research (OFR).' The New York Fed publishes the SOFR on its website at about 8:00 a.m. Eastern time. SOFR is important as a base for adjustable-rate mortgages, private student loans, home equity lines of credit, and many commercial real estate mortgages. While the Fed has indirect influence on it, SOFR is based on market-driven forces. As for the 10-year Treasury, it is also driven by market forces. The Trump administration has known all along how important the 10-year Treasury is. In February, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on Fox Business, 'In my talks with [the president], he and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury [yield].' But the administration has tried to convince and nudge the banking industry to invest more in 10-year Treasury Notes. The intent was to increase demand that, in turn, would boost price and push down yields, which move inversely to price. And then there is the 5-year Treasury, which is important to banks that are lending on properties or uses that will likely try to refinance within three to five years, like may commercial real estate businesses. It also follows market forces. Interest Rate Complexities Trying to understand how interest rates work and their potential impact on the economy, companies, and individuals is critical to survive financially. What will happen next is impossible to know. As the Journal wrote of Fed monetary policy moves: 'If short rates fall but long rates rise in anticipation of higher inflation, the economic gain Mr. Trump expects won't occur. What the President needs is a Fed that investors believe favors low inflation and a sound and stable dollar. That will yield lower long-bond and mortgage rates over time.' However, the uncertainty and distrust the administration has created globally is likely a reason the 10-year yield stays up. With tariffs still creating concern about their potential impact on inflation and Trump pushing for faster economic growth (which usually means higher inflation), it also seems unlikely that a broad set of investors will assume low inflation is going to be a direct goal.

U.S. Stock Futures Steady as Market Awaits Fed's Rate Decision
U.S. Stock Futures Steady as Market Awaits Fed's Rate Decision

Business Insider

time9 minutes ago

  • Business Insider

U.S. Stock Futures Steady as Market Awaits Fed's Rate Decision

U.S. stock futures were near the flat line on Tuesday evening as investors looked forward to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, due tomorrow. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and the S&P 500 (SPX) were up 0.05% and 0.01%, respectively, at 6:15 p.m. EDT, on July 29, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures were down 0.05%. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. Tuesday's trading session marked the first time in seven sessions that the S&P 500 did not close at an all-time high and was down 0.3%. The Dow Jones and the Nasdaq Composite also fell 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. All eyes are now on the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. According to the CME Group (CME), there is a 98% chance the central bank will keep rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%. Tomorrow, investors are looking forward to major economic data releases, such as reports on private payrolls, gross domestic product, and pending home sales. Also, major companies such as Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Ford (F), Etsy (ETSY), and Robinhood (HOOD) will report earnings on Wednesday.

Strength in Crude Oil Sparks Short Covering in Sugar Futures
Strength in Crude Oil Sparks Short Covering in Sugar Futures

Yahoo

time10 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Strength in Crude Oil Sparks Short Covering in Sugar Futures

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Monday closed up +0.14 (+0.86%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) closed up +3.80 (+0.81%). Sugar prices finished higher Monday as a rally in crude oil prices sparked short covering in sugar futures. WTI crude oil (CLU5) rose by more than +2% Monday to a 1-week high, which benefits ethanol prices and may prompt the world's sugar mills to divert cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thus curbing sugar supplies. More News from Barchart Does the 2025 Corn Crop Have a Pollination Problem? Weather Shocks vs. Oversupply: Are You Trading SRW Wheat's Next Big Move? Adverse Brazilian Weather and Tariff Concerns Boost Coffee Prices Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! Last Wednesday, sugar prices fell to 3-week lows after Bloomberg reported that India may permit local sugar mills to export sugar in the next season, which starts in October, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop. India's Meteorological Department reported Monday that cumulative monsoon rain in India is 6% above normal as of July 21. The outlook for higher sugar production in Brazil is bearish for sugar prices. Datagro said Monday that dry weather in Brazil has encouraged the country's sugar mills to increase their cane crushing, diverting more of the cane crush toward more profitable sugar production rather than ethanol. According to Covrig, Brazil's sugar mills are expected to crush 54% of the available cane in the first half of this month, likely adding 3.2 MMT of sugar into the market. The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. That would follow a -17.5% y/y decline in India's sugar production in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). Also, the ISMA reported on July 7 that India's sugar production during Oct 1-May 15 fell -17% y/y to 25.74 MMT. Sugar prices have retreated over the past three months, with NY sugar falling to a 4.25-year low earlier this month and London sugar sliding to a nearly 4-year low, driven by expectations of a sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season. On June 30, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT, with global sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y. Signs that the recent slide in sugar prices to 4-year lows has sparked a pickup in demand are positive for sugar prices. China's June sugar imports soared by 1,435% to 420,000 MT. Also, President Trump last Wednesday said Coca-Cola agreed to use cane sugar in Coke beverages sold in the US instead of high-fructose corn syrup, which could boost US sugar consumption by +4.4% to 11.5 MMT from 11 MMT currently, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Sugar prices also have support from reduced sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported last Monday that the cumulative 2025/26 Brazil Center-South sugar output through June fell by -14.3% y/y to 12.249 MMT. Last month, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, said 2024/25 Brazil sugar production fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat. The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. On May 2, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand's 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT on May 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT. This indicates a tightening market following the 2023/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. ISO also cut its 2024/25 global sugar production forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT. The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India's 2025/26 sugar production would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT due to favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store