
What a Black fascist can teach us about liberalism
American diplomat, consultant and author Lawrence Dennis (1893-1977) walks to court during his sedition trial on May 9, 1944 in Washington, DC. Getty Images
It was 1935, and Lawrence Dennis was sure that fascism was coming to America. He couldn't wait.
Dennis, a diplomat turned public intellectual, had just published an article in a leading political science journal titled 'Fascism for America.' In his mind, the Great Depression was proof that liberalism had run its course — its emphasis on free markets and individual liberty unable to cope with the complexities of a modern economy. With liberal democracy doomed, the only question was whether communism or fascism would win the future. And Dennis was rooting for the latter.
'I should like to see our two major political parties accept the major fascist premises,' he wrote. 'Whether our coming fascism is more or less humane and decent will depend largely on the contributions our humane elite can make to it in time.'
His case for fascism, made at book length in 1936's The Coming American Fascism, felt persuasive to many at the time. A contemporary review of the book in the Atlantic wrote that 'its arraignment of liberal leadership is unanswerable'; he was well-regarded enough to advise leading isolationist Charles Lindbergh and meet with elites on both sides of the Atlantic, ranging from sitting senators to Adolf Hitler himself.
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I first encountered Dennis researching my feature on liberalism and its critics (which has just emerged from the Highlight's paywall). In the piece, I use him to show that liberalism's enemies have long predicted its inevitable doom.
But the more I've thought about Dennis, the more I've realized how much we have to learn from him today. There are striking parallels between Dennis's fascist attack on liberalism and the arguments made by its current right-wing critics. And given that Dennis's arguments proved so badly wrong, his fate should be a warning against accepting similar predictions of inevitable liberal doom from his modern heirs.
There are, I think, two central errors in Dennis's work that have direct parallels in the arguments made by contemporary illiberal radicals. I've termed them 'anti-liberal traps,' and I think many are falling into them today.
What Lawrence Dennis believed
Dennis came to fascism through a peculiar route. A Black man who passed for white for nearly his entire life, he was openly critical of Jim Crow and American racism — almost, his biographer Gerald Horne theorizes, as if he wanted people to know who he truly was. Horne further suggests that Dennis's embrace of fascism was motivated in part by disgust with the racism of the median American voter. Dennis, Horne intimates, may have been so disgusted with racist rule of 'the people' that he embraced rule-by-elite as an alternative.
But while he did discuss race, Dennis's arguments in The Coming American Fascism were primarily economic. In his view, the Great Depression was not an isolated crisis but rather a sign of the current political order's structural failures.
Dennis believed that capitalism depended on several key factors to deliver economic growth — including continued acquisition of new territory, a growing population, and debt-financed business expansion. By the 1930s, he believed that these factors had reached a dead end: that the US could not feasibly acquire new territory, that its population would level off thanks to immigration restrictionism and birth control, and that private debt had reached wholly unsustainable levels.
The Depression, he argued, was a symptom of these structural failings coming to a head.
In Dennis's view, American liberal democracy did not have the tools to repair the flaws in the capitalist system. Liberalism was, he believed, joined inevitably to laissez-faire economics. Its deference to private property was so total, its institutions so dominated by the interests of the wealthy, that it would be impossible for even a leader as ambitious as then-President Franklin D. Roosevelt to make serious internal adjustments.
'The features of the liberal system we are now discussing are fundamental. It is constantly forgotten that the quintessence of liberalism and liberal liberties under a constitution is the maintenance of a regime of special or exceptionally favorable considerations for private property,' Dennis writes. 'A series of majority votes arrived at by the parliamentary or Congressional methods of majority group pressures, lobbying, and the individual pursuit of reelection by hundreds of office holders, do not constitute a guiding hand. And a political system of checks and balances is not coordinated control.'
This last line hints at Dennis's fascist vision: a system in which liberal democracy is replaced by the rule of a handful of enlightened elites, who develop a comprehensive plan for the economy rather than leaving things up to the whims of private owners. Only state control over economic affairs, including nationalization of the banking system, could repair the malfunctioning economy and put the United States on the pathway to prosperity.
Dennis was no communist: he did not believe in the complete abolition of private property. Rather, he believed that the state should be far more aggressive in dictating to private owners — forcing them to make corporate decisions based not on the profit motive but rather on the good of the collective, as defined by the fascist governing class. This was the model emerging in Italy and Germany at the time he was writing, and one he believed would prove vastly more efficient and productive in the modern world than American-style liberal democratic capitalism.
'America cannot forever remain 17th and 18th century in its law, and political and social theory and practice, while moving in the vanguard of 20th century technological progress. The defenders of 18th century Americanism are doomed to become the laughing stock of their own countrymen,' he writes.
Dennis believed that liberalism's practical failings stemmed from its philosophical essence: that 'the features of the liberal system we are now discussing are fundamental.' The liberal obsession with individual rights, be it private property or free speech, made liberal democracies ideologically incapable of taking the economic steps necessary to fix capitalism's errors.
'The fascist State entirely repudiates the liberal idea of conflict of interests and rights as between the State and the individual,' he writes. 'Liberalism assumes that individual welfare and protection is largely a matter of having active and powerful judicial restraints on governmental interference with the individual; Fascism assumes that individual welfare and protection is mainly secured by the strength, efficiency, and success of the State in the realization of the national plan.'
The obvious objection is that this fascist vision would lead to terrifying mistreatment of citizens. Dennis did allow that Germany had gone too far in this direction by repressing the media and the church, but argued that 'a desirable form of fascism for Americans' could avoid such 'drastic measures.' Even Germany, Dennis believed, would not become 'a State and government…whose every act would be an abuse,' as 'such an eventuality seems most improbable in any modern State.'
Though fascist ideology might define the national plan in a way that directed violence against ethnic minorities, Dennis — ever the closeted Black man — believed that such racism could be excised from the fascist project.
'If, in this discussion, it be assumed that one of our values should be a type of racism which excludes certain races from citizenship, then the plan of execution should provide for the annihilation, deportation, or sterilization of the excluded races,' he worried. 'If, on the contrary, as I devoutly hope will be the case, the scheme of values will include that of a national citizenship in which race will be no qualifying or disqualifying condition, then the plan of realization must, in so far as race relations are concerned, provide for assimilation or accommodation of race differences within the scheme of smoothly running society.'
The anti-liberal traps, from 1936 to 2025
We now know that every single one of Dennis's arguments was terribly wrong.
The New Deal worked; both the US and European democracy developed social models that reformed capitalism without abandoning its essence. This political-economic system proved far more effective economically than either fascist or communist central planning. And fascism in practice committed every horrible abuse that its liberal critics warned of — and some so awful that almost no one imagined their possibility in advance.
Now, '1930s-era fascist was wrong' is not exactly breaking news. But what I found notable about Dennis is how closely his argument follows a general pattern of anti-liberal argument — one which many far-right intellectuals deploy today in their critiques. It is one centered on what I described earlier as the twin 'anti-liberal traps.'
The first anti-liberal trap is a claim that a recent crisis is a product of unchangeable and unreformable liberal philosophical commitments. It is a belief that while liberal states still stand, the author has seen their coming doom — and its causes align, just perfectly, with the author's preferred view of the world.
Such claims not only demand extraordinary evidence, but risk being embarrassed when events in the world begin to shift.
Patrick Deneen, a political theorist at Notre Dame, has put this mode of argument at the center of his worldview. In two recent books, Why Liberalism Failed and Regime Change, Deneen argues that the current rise of populist figures like Donald Trump augurs liberalism's collapse — a collapse that is, he believes, a necessary product of liberalism's philosophical commitments to meritocracy and individualism.
'Liberalism has careened towards its inevitable failure,' he writes in Regime Change, because 'liberalism's conception of liberty created both a new ruling class and degraded the lives of the masses.'
Specifically, he argues, liberalism's commitment to freeing individuals to live the lives of their choosing has led to weakening of the ties that bind humans together — without which most will suffer so badly that the system cannot long survive.
'The advance of liberal liberty has meant the gradual, and then accelerating, weakening, redefinition, or overthrowing of many formative institutions and practices of human life, whether family, the community, a vast array of associations, schools and universities, architecture, the arts, and even the churches,' he writes.
Deneen's analysis is, in argumentative structure, extraordinarily similar to Dennis's.
Both take recent events, be it the rise of Trump or the Depression, as proof that liberalism's doom is not merely likely but assured. Both argue that this inevitable collapse stems from liberalism's unchangeable and unreformable philosophical essence.
And both, notably, locate the failures in areas that align with their political interests. Deneen is a Catholic conservative who believes the state ought to promote conservative religious values; Dennis was a fascist who believed in a state-structured economy. Not coincidentally, they blame liberalism's inevitable doom on (respectively) its social and economic failings.
In describing these similarities, I am not attempting a comprehensive rebuttal of Deneen's arguments. The content of their arguments are different enough, as are the circumstances. Perhaps Dennis was wrong and Deneen is right. But there is a tendency, among observers of all stripes, to overextrapolate from recent developments — typically in ways that flatter their own worldviews and biases.
The second anti-liberal trap represents a similar kind of wishful thinking. It is an idealization of liberalism's alternatives: a comparison of actually-existing liberalism either to theoretical models or whitewashed versions of its real-life competitors. To imagine, in essence, Dennis's anti-racist fascism or less-hateful Nazism.
You can see this, most obviously, in the recent right-wing vogue for Catholic integralism: a political model in which the state would be tasked with using its power to further the spiritual mission of the church.
Any such project would require truly extraordinary amounts of coercion to be implemented in a country that's 20 percent Catholic (and most American Catholics are not themselves far-right). More broadly, right-wing religious regimes have a poor track record when it comes to protecting the rights of non-believers.
Yet integralists respond to these claims either by deflection — liberal states coerce too! — or an assertion that their confessional state would surely be better than the others. Recalling a conversation with a Jewish colleague about what would happen to this person under integralism, Harvard's Adrian Vermeule — a leading American integralist — described his answer in two glib words: 'nothing bad.'
You also see parallels to Dennis in the way that modern anti-liberals talk about contemporary Hungary, which has become to the illiberal right what the Nordic states are to the American left. Hungary is undeniably authoritarian, but its modern right-wing defenders angrily deny that its regime is anything other than a well-functioning democracy. Hard evidence to the contrary, such as its repression of independent media or attacks on judicial independence, are dismissed as liberal propaganda or else no worse than what happens here in the United States.
This false equivalence, incidentally, was a favorite move of Dennis's. In dismissing charges that fascism would trample on individual rights the liberal state protects, he replied that all states coerce, just in different ways.
'The popular type of denunciation of fascism on the ground that it stands for State absolutism, or a State of unlimited powers, as contrasted with the liberal State of limited powers, is based on misrepresentation of the true nature of the liberal State,' he wrote. 'The important differences between fascism and liberalism in this respect lie between those certain things which each State, respectively, does without limitation.'
Again, the point is not to suggest complete equivalence: Viktor Orbán's Hungary is not Adolf Hitler's Germany. Rather, it is to point out how similar the arguments are structurally — how easy it is, when starting from a point of hostility to liberalism, to handwave away criticisms of its alternatives through idealizations and tu quoques.
Lawrence Dennis was not a dumb man. After reading much of his writing, I'm confident of that. But his arguments, which seemed so persuasive to many at the time, proved to be mistaken in nearly every particular — a shortsighted extrapolation from recent evidence that misread both the politics of liberal democracies and liberalism's philosophical adaptability to new circumstances.
It's a lesson that radical anti-liberals today ought to take to heart.
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Time Magazine
7 minutes ago
- Time Magazine
Poor People Are America's Swing Voters
In January, while the world waited to see what a second Donald Trump Presidency would look like, photos from the Inauguration offered a snapshot of what was to come. Some of the wealthiest people in the world joined politicians in the Capitol rotunda to mark the beginning of the Trump regime while everyone else was locked out in the cold. Six months later, Congress passed one of the largest transfers of wealth from low-income people to the rich in history. As lawmakers go home for their August recess, the record is clear: the White House and Congress are working hand-in-hand to serve the interests of elites at the expense of everyday Americans. On the one hand, this is the worst of times: power is concentrated in the hands of people who pray at the opening of Congress, then act to prey on the people they swore an oath to serve. 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But the reality of American politics is that, despite these appeals, most poor people don't vote against their own interests. While Trump improved in 2024 among low-income voters who cast a ballot in the election, new data from Lake Research Associates makes clear that the real change was in the number of poor and low-income people who decided not to vote in the race between Trump and Harris. More than 19 million 'Biden Skippers' who helped elect President Joe Biden in 2020 didn't show up in 2024. When asked why, nearly a third said their number one reason for not voting was that they didn't feel like the Democrats' message spoke to their economic situation. When asked, these 'Biden skippers' were not disinterested in politics. Far from it, nearly half say they check the news more than once a day and the majority favor Democrats in a generic match-up. 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In our book White Poverty, we wrote about how the 2018 midterms saw a roughly 10% increase in voter participation over the previous midterms—a larger four-year-increase than Obama's record-breaking turnout in 2008. Many factors contributed to this surge in participation, but a raw number increase in low-income voters made a significant contribution to the 'blue wave' that returned control of the U.S. House to Democrats in 2018 and put a check on Trump's use of the White House to reward elite interests and undermine policies that lift poor people in 2020. A movement can change how candidates talk and what agenda they promise to pursue when elected. Democrats need a new wave of leadership that not only articulates a vision for how government can serve everyday people, but also demonstrates that they are committed to use executive action, change courts, and use power when they are in office to win policies that lift from the bottom so everyone can rise. If a moral fusion movement, led by poor and low-income people, can rise up in America today, we have the numbers to change the political conversation. This is why we have organized Moral Mondays across the South to go to the districts that will be hurt first and worst by cuts to healthcare and organize people who will be directly impacted to speak directly to their representatives with clergy and moral leaders by their side. A movement led by these people, linking arms across racial lines and joining hands with progressive allies, could not only decide the Presidential elections, but many Congressional and other statewide races as well. Poor and low-income people make up a third of the U.S. electorate—more than 40% of the electorate in the swing states that will decide the 2026 midterms. It's time for poor people of every race to reject the myths that have been used to divide us and come together to demand an economy that works for all of us. Such a movement isn't only good news for the poor. It's the best hope for American democracy. Adapted from White Poverty: How Exposing Myths About Race and Class Can Reconstruct American Democracy, by William J. Barber with Jonathan Wilson-Hartgrove (Liveright), out in paperback August 5, 2025.


Vox
7 minutes ago
- Vox
Israel's Gaza aid cutoff was not only immoral. It was a strategic disaster.
is a senior correspondent at Vox, where he covers ideology and challenges to democracy, both at home and abroad. His book on democracy,, was published 0n July 16. You can purchase it here. Palestinians, including children gather with cooking pots to receive hot meals distributed by a charitable organization in the Al-Ansar area of western Gaza City on August 1, 2025. The food distribution comes amid severe hunger and humanitarian crisis caused by ongoing Israeli attacks. Anadolu via Getty Images Israel's restrictions on humanitarian aid in Gaza are, first and foremost, a moral atrocity. Israeli policies since March, most notably the initial shutdown on aid entering the Strip, were very obviously going to cause a hunger crisis down the line. There can be no defense for intentionally starving children. But strikingly, the policy has also become a strategic failure for Israel. Its aid limitations, intended to starve out Hamas, have actually strengthened the group's position and handed it new leverage in ceasefire negotiations. International outrage over the past week has prompted important Israeli partners — France, the UK, and Canada — to announce support for recognizing a Palestinian state. Perhaps most importantly, the suffering in Gaza has done severe damage to Israel's alliance with the United States, alienating masses of Democrats and even some MAGA Republicans. This is not only my opinion. It is a point of emerging consensus of well-informed analysts across the political spectrum, who see the recent international uproar over starvation in Gaza as a catastrophe for Jerusalem. 'Israel may have massive military superiority in Gaza but as of this week, it has lost the war,' writes Michael Stephens, a Middle East expert at the UK's RUSI think tank. If the policy is such an obvious disaster, both morally evil and strategically disastrous, then why did Israel do it all? In some sense, this is the question of the entire war, which Israeli generals concluded over a year ago was no longer improving the country's security. The answer, in both cases, is the same: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu depends on Israel's extreme right to stay in office, and they support ever-more-brutal war policies to further their project of Israel reconquering and resettling the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu has, in short, deliberately caused mass suffering and inflicted a strategic disaster on the country he leads — all for the purpose of appeasing a handful of fanatics who hold his future in their hands. 'All the gains on the battlefield jeopardized' Even before October, Gaza was in poor economic straits — thanks both to Israeli restrictions and Hamas's own poor governance. But the war has destroyed even the limited capacities Gazans had to sustain themselves. Roughly 95 percent of farmland is no longer operational; fishing, a vital activity in the coastal enclave, is now 'virtually impossible' at scale, per a UN report. So today, Gazans either receive aid or face starvation — a reality that was already obvious back when Israel announced its aid cutoff back in March. At the time, a statement from the prime minister's office described the policy as punishment for Hamas' refusal to release Israeli hostages during ongoing ceasefire negotiations. This turned into a full-on effort to starve Hamas out. First, Israel cut off aid entirely from early March through May, blocking assistance from entering at border crossings. It then partnered with the US to support a new entity called the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation — a parallel aid distribution mechanism alongside traditional UN efforts designed to ensure that Hamas was not, as Israel claimed, stealing supplies. 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As the reality of starvation on the ground became undeniable to all but the most blinkered Israeli propagandists, the world erupted in outrage. While Israel is used to international criticism, the volume and nature of the outrage was so significant that it was forced to change policy. Israel began airdropping supplies into Gaza, opened up new corridors for UN trucks to provide aid, and unilaterally announced 10-hour daily 'pauses' in its military operations in order to facilitate aid provision. Whether these policies actually alleviate hunger in Gaza remains to be seen. But the key point, from a military point of view, is that Israel just proved that it cannot leverage suffering in Gaza into gains at the negotiating table. Quite the opposite, in fact: The worse things get, the more Israel feels a need to change course — to slow down its military operations unilaterally, without Hamas having to give up anything in exchange. 'The world coming down on you…that takes the pressure off Hamas,' says Ilan Goldenberg, the senior vice president at J Street who recently served as a top Israel-Palestine official in the Biden administration. '[The aid cutoff] actually probably causes Hamas to take a harder line in negotiations.' This should not come as a shock. The October 7 attacks themselves were intended, at least in part, to provoke an Israeli overreaction — something so violent and bloody that Israel would lose the world's post-attack goodwill and even suffer severe political consequences. The more misery Netanyahu's government inflicts on Gazans, the better off Hamas is in the long term. By cutting off and limiting aid, Israel made a vicious choice that played directly into Hamas's hands. 'Months wasted playing a game the enemy couldn't lose, and if you miscalculate the consequences are justifiably on you — on your head,' Haviv Rettig Gur, a prominent right-leaning Israeli journalist, said on his podcast last week. Israel's aid policy 'failed so severely,' in Gur's view, 'that Hamas has been propped up at every turn, its resilience assured, and all the gains on the battlefield jeopardized.' A long-term diplomatic disaster It is worth dwelling on why Israel cares so much about the current wave of international outrage. Throughout the Gaza war, Israel has been able to ride out increasingly hostile opinions in most countries thanks to its support among the leaders of Western democracies. The European Union is Israel's trading partner, and the United States its military supplier and diplomatic patron. So long as those relationships are intact, Israel faces few serious threats from global public opinion. But in the past week, that dam has started to crack — beginning what Michael Koplow, the chief policy officer at the Israel Policy Forum, calls a 'long-predicted diplomatic tsunami.' It is not that the proposals by countries like Britain, Canada, and France to recognize a Palestinian state mean much in immediate practical terms. It is what they signal as newly possible: a world where countries begin actually treating Israel not as a peer democracy, but as a rogue aggressor more akin to Russia than an EU member state. Just this week, the EU floated a bid to end some research cooperation with Israel — a punishment that, per key member states, will become more and more likely if the humanitarian situation in Gaza doesn't improve. Yet for all Israel's woes in Europe, it is the United States where it faces the most dangerous long-term threat. Democrats have been turning from Israel since the Obama presidency, a trend that accelerated sharply and dramatically during the Gaza war. And there are forces on the MAGA right, including some unsavory ones, that have long wanted to sever the Republican party's bond with the Jewish state. But the past week has been a watershed in US-Israel relations — and not in a good way for Israel. Israel's decision to knowingly induce an acute starvation crisis has played a clear and direct role in weakening its most important strategic relationship. 'The only truly existential strategic threat that Israel faces is loss of support from the United States,' Koplow says. 'As a direct result of [Gaza's starvation], we have now seen lower support among Democrats, measured in every way. [And] anyone can see the trends in MAGA world, which is now the base of the Republican Party.' Israel has sabotaged itself So if Israel's starvation policy was so obviously self-defeating — to say nothing of its grotesque immorality — why did it do it in the first place? The answer has two layers — the first political, the second ideological. Put together, they suggest there's dim hope of positive changes so long as the current government is in power. Politically, Netanyahu's coalition has exactly half of the seats in Israel's parliament (60 out of 120). Even a single defecting lawmaker could enable a vote in parliament calling for early elections, which polls have long said he would lose. The math makes Netanyahu unusually dependent on the leaders of two extremist factions — Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir — who have repeatedly threatened to jump ship if Netanyahu compromises on maximalism in Gaza. For these radicals, the war is part of a broader ideological agenda. They believe that Israel should rightfully control all of the land between the river and the sea, and that pursuit of Israeli control and security justifies seemingly unlimited cruelty towards Palestinians. The aid restrictions reflect these twisted values: Last year, Smotrich gave a speech declaring that it would be 'just and moral' if Israel chose to 'starve and thirst two million [Palestinian] citizens' until the hostages are returned. But it's not just aid: These lawmakers are the reason why this entire war continues despite the lack of obvious military benefits and widespread domestic support for a ceasefire. Smotrich and Ben Gvir have both said they would abandon Netanyahu if he agrees to stop the fighting indefinitely. These threats do not seem idle; Ben Gvir briefly quit the coalition in January in protest of Netanyahu's accession to a temporary ceasefire. Netanyahu is so afraid of the consequences of losing office — he's currently on trial for corruption — that he has chosen to outsource portions of his war policy to these fanatics, including the most fundamental choice of whether to continue the war at all. The Gaza starvation disaster is a direct product of this combination of fanaticism and rank self-interest. There will likely be more so long as this coalition remains in power.


Vox
7 minutes ago
- Vox
Is it possible to 'win' a nuclear war?
is a senior correspondent at Vox covering foreign policy and world news with a focus on the future of international conflict. He is the author of the 2018 book, Invisible Countries: Journeys to the Edge of Nationhood , an exploration of border conflicts, unrecognized countries, and changes to the world map. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, US President Joe Biden, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lay flower wreaths at the Cenotaph for Atomic Bomb Victims in the Peace Memorial Park as part of the G7 Leaders' Summit in Hiroshima on May 19, 2023. Susan Walsh/Pool/AFP via Getty Images Following their first meeting in Geneva in 1985, US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev issued a historic joint statement stating their shared belief that 'a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.' The maxim lived on. The Geneva summit turned out to be a key milestone in the beginning of the end of the Cold War arms race. Nearly four decades later in 2022, leaders of the world's five main nuclear powers — the US, Russia, China, France, and the UK — issued another joint statement, affirming that 'a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought' and that their arsenals are meant to 'serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war.' The thinking behind the phrase is that these weapons are so destructive — with potential consequences that include the literal destruction of human civilization — that it makes no sense to talk about 'victory' in a nuclear war. It's a powerful idea. But do the nuclear powers really believe it? As the world marks the 80th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki this week, it's clear that the world is entering a new nuclear age, characterized by increasing tension between superpowers, China's growing arsenal, and the rising possibility that more countries will acquire the bomb. And judging from the nations' actions and strategy documents — as opposed to their declarations at summits — we are also in an era in which nuclear powers do believe they can win a nuclear war and want to be prepared to do so. Recent years have seen threats of Russia using a 'tactical' nuclear weapon in Ukraine and a military conflict between India and Pakistan that US officials believed could have gone nuclear. The governments making these threats aren't suicidal; if they were contemplating nuclear use, it's because they thought it would help them win. In response to growing threats, the United States has been updating its own doctrine and arsenals to provide more options for a so-called limited nuclear war. Looming over it all is the danger of war between the US and China, a conflict that would be fought under the nuclear shadow. The idea that there can be a winner in a nuclear exchange rests on several assumptions: that the conflict can be contained, that it won't inevitably escalate into an all-out exchange that sees whole cities or countries wiped out, and that there will be anyone left alive to claim victory. Some experts claim that as long as the potential for nuclear war exists, we'd be foolish not to plan for how to win one as quickly and with as little destruction to ourselves as possible. Others say the idea that a nuclear war could be kept 'limited' is a dangerous notion that only makes such a war — and the risk that it could escalate to something not so limited — more likely. A long-running debate: MAD vs. NUTS The bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki killed somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 people, depending on estimates, but both cities are once again thriving metropolises today. Despite the fears of some of the scientists involved in developing the bombs, they did not ignite the atmosphere and kill all life on Earth. They did play a significant role — though there continues to be a debate about just how significant it was — in ending World War II. The only time nuclear weapons were used in war, the side that used them won the war. But the difference then was that only one country had the weapons. Today, there are nine nuclear-armed countries with more than 12,000 nuclear weapons between them, and most of those are far more powerful than the ones used on Japan in 1945. The W76 warhead, the most common nuclear weapon in the US arsenal, is about five times more powerful than 'Fat Man,' dropped on Nagasaki. When most people imagine what a war using these weapons would look like, images of armageddon — annihilated cities, radiation fallout, nuclear winter — come to mind. Popular depictions of nuclear war, from Dr. Strangelove to the Terminator movies to last year's chilling quasi-novel Nuclear War: A Scenario, soon to be adapted into a film, tend to focus on the worst-case scenarios. The apocalyptic possibilities have, for decades, motivated global campaigns to ban nuclear weapons and haunted many of the world leaders who would have to make the decisions that would set them in motion. That includes Donald Trump, who has described what he calls 'nuclear warming' as the 'biggest problem we have in the whole world.' If there could be a silver lining to the fact that humanity has built weapons capable of destroying itself, it's that this fear has made those weapons much less likely to be used. 'Mutually Assured Destruction' (MAD) has never actually been officially US policy — the RAND Corporation analyst who popularized the term back in the 1960s meant it as a critique — but nonetheless, the idea that nuclear war would be suicidal for both sides is arguably what kept the Cold War from getting hot. The logic continues to operate today: Joe Biden preemptively ruled out responding with direct military force to Russia's invasion of Ukraine because of the potential consequences of war between the two countries that account for 90 percent of the world's nukes. But from the earliest days of the nuclear era, there have been prominent voices arguing that nuclear war could be kept within limited boundaries, and that it's worth preparing to win one. In the mid-1950s, President Dwight Eisenhower's administration operated under a nuclear strategy that emphasized 'massive retaliation,' meaning the US would respond to any Soviet attack with overwhelming nuclear force against Soviet territory. But Henry Kissinger — who at the time was a Harvard professor and up-and-coming security analyst, and later went on to become secretary of state and national security adviser — argued against 'massive retaliation,' lamenting that 'far from giving us freedom of action, the very power of modern weapons seems to inhibit it.' He wanted options between refraining from nuclear use at all and all-out annihilation. In 1956, Kissinger argued that the US should instead plan for fighting a 'limited' nuclear war by emphasizing the development of lower-yield weapons and devising 'tactics for their utilization on the battlefield.' Herman Kahn, the RAND Corporation nuclear strategist who was one of the inspirations for Stanley Kubrick's Dr. Strangelove character, envisioned a 44-rung escalation ladder for nuclear conflict, with what he called 'barely nuclear war' kicking in at rung 15 and getting more serious from there. If MAD stood for the idea that the only two options were avoiding nuclear war or global annihilation, the view that nuclear weapons could be used selectively with devastating but limited consequences came to be known as NUTS, or Nuclear Utilization Target Selection. The debate never really went away, but it faded somewhat with the end of the Cold War when both the US and Russia substantially reduced their arsenals, and the risk of confrontation appeared to fade. Recently, however, the topic of limited nuclear war has been making a comeback. Concern over limited nuclear war is growing 'We have nine nuclear powers in the world today that are building nuclear weapons, not to put in museums, but for military and political use, and developing plans for their use,' Matthew Kroenig, a national security analyst at the Atlantic Council and Georgetown University, told Vox. The United States is no exception. The 2018 US Nuclear Posture Review, issued under the first Trump administration, called for 'expanding flexible U.S. nuclear options.' The 2022 review, issued under the Biden administration, included similar language. To provide those options, the US has begun production of a number of new lower-yield nuclear warheads, such as the 5-kiloton W76-2, which has been deployed on nuclear submarines. For reference, that's about a third as powerful as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, but more than a 1,000 times more powerful than the 'massive ordinance penetrator' bomb the US recently used on Iran's nuclear facilities. Advocates for limited nuclear war planning are on the ascendance as well. Elbridge Colby, the current undersecretary of defense for policy, has attracted attention for advocating a shift in military priorities away from Europe and the Middle East toward what he sees as the more pressing threat from China. He's also a leading advocate for preparing for limited nuclear war. In a 2018 article for Foreign Affairs, Colby argued that deterring Russia or China from using force against US allies requires developing the 'right strategy and weapons to fight a limited nuclear war and come out on top.' These advocates say that recent actions by America's adversaries make it necessary to plan for fighting a limited nuclear war. US officials believe that Russia's military doctrine includes a so-called escalate to de-escalate strategy, in which it would use a nuclear strike or the threat of one to force surrender, to compensate for disadvantages on the battlefield or to avoid an imminent defeat. Russia's war plans are classified, and some analysts are skeptical that such a strategy exists, but an example of the kind of thinking that keeps American strategists up at night is laid out in a 2023 article by Sergei Karaganov, a one-time adviser to President Vladimir Putin and one of Russia's leading foreign policy commentators. Karaganov argues that Russia has 'set too high a threshold for the use of nuclear weapons,' and that in order to prevent further US meddling in Ukraine, Russia needs to demonstrate its willingness to use a nuclear weapon. He reassures readers that nuclear retaliation by the US to protect a faraway ally is unlikely, and that 'if we correctly build a strategy of intimidation and deterrence and even use of nuclear weapons, the risk of a 'retaliatory' nuclear or any other strike on our territory can be reduced to an absolute minimum.' Obviously, Putin hasn't done this yet in Ukraine, though he has made repeated threatening references to his country's arsenal, and at one point, in 2022, Biden administration officials reportedly believed there was a 50-50 chance Russia would use a nuke. Russia is believed to have an arsenal of more than 1,000 'tactical' or 'nonstrategic warheads.' (The distinction between 'tactical' and 'strategic' nuclear weapons is a little vague. The former refers to weapons meant to destroy military targets on the battlefield rather than target an enemy's cities and society. Tactical nukes are generally smaller and shorter range, though some are larger than the bombs dropped on Japan, and some observers — including former Secretary of Defense James Mattis — have argued that there is no difference between the two.) The US has also accused Russia of developing capabilities to deploy a nuclear weapon in space, which could be used to destroy communications satellites in orbit. This would be a less catastrophic scenario than a detonation on Earth, to be sure, but still a dangerous new form of nuclear escalation. (Russia has denied the American allegations.) Unlike Russia and the United States, China has an official 'no-first use' policy on nuclear weapons. But the country's arsenal is growing rapidly, and many experts suspect that in an all-out military conflict, particularly if the war were going badly for China and its conventional forces were threatened, its threshold for nuclear use might be lower than official statements suggest. The argument from some strategists is that ruling out nuclear use entirely gives China an incentive to escalate to the point where the US backs down. 'If we are completely convinced that a limited war is impossible, and the Chinese believe that it is possible, then they will checkmate us every time,' Colby told me in a 2022 interview for Grid. 'At some point, we have to be willing to fight a war under the nuclear shadow. My view is [that] the best way to avoid testing that proposition, which I absolutely don't want to do, is to be visibly prepared for it.' On the other hand, Chinese planners can think this way too. Lyle Goldstein, a professor at Brown University who studies Chinese military strategy, says that 'Chinese scholars are talking openly about limited nuclear war now,' which they have not in the past. But when confronted about this shift by Americans, they tend to make the argument, 'We're discussing it because you're discussing it.' It's not only the world's top three nuclear powers that engage in this sort of thinking. Pakistan's nuclear doctrine, also classified, is thought to emphasize 'calibrated escalation' to deter strategic surprise by its rival, India. During the recent military conflict between the two countries in May, fears of nuclear escalation are reportedly what prompted the Trump administration to intervene diplomatically, after initially suggesting it was not a core US interest. Since acquiring nuclear weapons, the two South Asian adversaries have proven adept at managing military escalation and de-escalation without letting things spiral out of control. But this was the most intense conflict between the two in years, and after it ended, Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed that India would no longer succumb to Pakistan's 'nuclear blackmail,' suggesting that his country's tolerance for nuclear risk was growing higher. What will it take to keep a nuclear war limited? Advocates for preparing for limited nuclear war say the attention devoted to full-scale global thermonuclear war distracts us from the sort of war that we're much more likely to get into. 'Any use of nuclear weapons in the future will be limited. There's virtually no prospect whatsoever of a global thermonuclear conflagration,' said Kerry Kartchner, a former State Department and Pentagon official and coauthor of a book on limited nuclear war. The most likely way a war would stay limited is if one side simply decided not to fight. 'There is a very, very strong, very powerful incentive not to use nuclear weapons,' even when the other side uses them first, Kartchner told Vox. In his book The Bomb, journalist Fred Kaplan reports that during the Obama administration, the National Security Council held a series of war games simulating the response to a hypothetical use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia during an invasion of the Baltic countries. Officials differed sharply over whether the US should respond with a nuclear strike of its own or keep its response limited to conventional military and economic means in order to 'rally the entire world against Russia.' Years later, when President Biden believed a real-world version of this scenario could be imminent, he declined to say how he would respond. Kroenig, of the Atlantic Council, has argued that the US should respond to Russian nuclear use with conventional force. But he also believes that even if the US used nuclear weapons to respond, it could keep the conflict limited. 'You can signal through the use of military force,' he said. 'I think Russia understands the difference between a low-yield battlefield nuclear weapon going off on the battlefield versus a big ICBM heading towards Moscow.' He concedes that this type of signaling wouldn't work with a 'true madman,' but argues, 'in most real-world cases, leaders don't rise to run major countries without having some kind of ability to think rationally and to preserve their own survival.' The world's biggest gamble Others aren't so sure. 'Whenever somebody says, 'we can control escalation,' they immediately assume a whole bunch of things that seem unrealistic to me, like perfect information, calm, rational decision makers,' says Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on nonproliferation at Middlebury Institute of International Studies. From Napoleon to Hitler, history is rife with examples of leaders making military decisions that led to the destruction of their regimes. Putin believed the war in Ukraine could be won in a matter of weeks and that the international response would be far more limited than it turned out to be. There's also no guarantee that adversaries would be able to communicate effectively during a nuclear crisis. During the 2023 incident in which the US downed a Chinese spy balloon that had drifted over US territory, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reached out to his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe, to explain US attentions and calm tensions, but Wei didn't pick up the phone. An infamous 1983 Pentagon war game known as Proud Prophet, simulating a US-Soviet nuclear war in Europe, provides a sobering warning: As the strikes between the two sides escalated, they were unable to communicate their intention to keep the conflict limited. 'When we hit the Soviets, they hadn't the slightest idea of what our limitations were,' one participant recalled. By the end of the game, Paris, London, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Brussels — and every major German city — were destroyed. Including tests, there have been more than 2,000 nuclear detonations since 1945. One, or even a few more, will not literally be the end of the world, but there's limited margin for error. In a 2007 study, a group of physicists estimated that a limited regional nuclear exchange 'involving 100 15-kiloton explosions (less than 0.1% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal)' could 'produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II' as well as causing enough smoke to rise into the atmosphere causing 'significant climatic anomalies on global scales.' When it comes to nuclear wars, even limited ones, 'You might be able to survive the first one or two,' said Manpreet Sethi, a nonproliferation expert at India's Centre for Air Power Studies. 'But after that, we'll be pushing the envelope. It can't be business as usual after you've done a 'little bit' of nuclear war.' Does planning for a nuclear war make it more likely? Advocates for limited nuclear war planning argue that by ruling it out entirely, the US is inviting adversaries like Russia and China to use their nukes without fear of retaliation. Sethi's concern is that 'If you start preparing for a limited nuclear war, you increase the likelihood of fighting a war like that because you get into the idea that escalation management is possible.' For now, the example of Ukraine and Putin's failure to follow through on his threats suggests that the taboo against nuclear use — no matter how 'tactical' or 'limited' — remains in place. 'The important lesson from this war is that nobody really has confidence that escalation can be contained, said Pavel Podvig, an expert on Russia's nuclear forces at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva. Encouragingly, Biden administration officials say they believe China may have warned Russia against using its weapons, suggesting this may be a red line even for Moscow's backers. This year's Hiroshima anniversary is a moment for somber reflection on the risks humanity has put itself under. But a more optimistic view is that the world is also marking 80 years without any other country actually using these weapons, something many leaders would not have predicted at the dawn of the nuclear age. As armed conflicts continue to proliferate, longstanding arms control treaties fall by the wayside, and the number of nuclear-armed powers continues to grow, getting to the 100th anniversary with that record intact may prove even more challenging.