The 2025 Australian federal election so far
Greens Leader Adam Bandt with a giant toothbrush advocating for the inclusion of dental care in Medicare at Luna Park in Melbourne. Photograph: Nadir Kinani/AAP
Prime minister Anthony Albanese takes in the sights on a ferry to Green Island, Queensland, in the electorate of Leichhardt. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP
A journalist gets to work with a live cross straight after touchdown in Perth. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP
Peter Dutton at a press conference in Prestons, in western Sydney, in the seat of Werriwa. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
Anthony Albanese falls off the riser as he attends an MEU conference in the electorate of Hunter in the Hunter Valley. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP
Independent Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel gives her campaign launch speech at Kingston City Hall in Melbourne. Photograph:Peter Dutton at Ampol Carrick petrol station in Tasmania. Photograph: Thomas Lisson/AAP
A protestor approaches the minister for climate change and energy Chris Bowen as he arrives for a press conference at a home in Burwood, Melbourne. Photograph: Joel Carrett/AAP
Peter Dutton visits a Headspace facility in Melton north-east of Melbourne, in the seat of Hawke. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
A protester confronts Peter Dutton at a beer factory in the seat of Brisbane. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
A buff-banded rail bird photobombs Anthony Albanese as he speaks to the media on Green Island. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP
Peter Dutton tightens a wheel nut during a visit to the Cougar Mining Equipment facility in Tomago in the Hunter Valley in the seat of Paterson. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
A Keep the Sheep protester shouts outside Midland hospital in Perth. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP
The shadow of Peter Dutton is seen at a press conference in Prestons, in western Sydney in the seat of Werriwa. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
Anthony Albanese and the Member for Lalor Jo Ryan during a visit to the The Werribee Medicare Urgent Care Clinic in Melbourne. Photograph: Jason Edwards/AAP
A pet cockatoo named 'Malcolm Turnbill II' at a home visited by Anthony Albanese in the electorate of Canberra, ACT. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP
Anthony Albanese with the minister for regional development Kristy McBain in Bega, NSW.
Photograph: Jason Edwards/AAP
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The Herald Scotland
a day ago
- The Herald Scotland
John Curtice: SNP majority in 2026 ‘extremely unlikely'
"What is [[John Swinney]] doing? He is saying to people: if you want independence, vote [[SNP]]. Do not vote for Alba, do not vote for the Greens." READ MORE The First Minister's plan has proved controversial in the party, with rebels set to attempt to amend it at conference in October. One change that has the backing of 43 branches is to make a majority of list votes for pro-independence parties in 2026 a mandate for independence negotiations with the UK Government. "[[John Swinney]] does not want there to be a fragmented list vote," Prof Curtice told the audience in Edinburgh's Summerhall. "He wants people to vote for the SNP. The challenge facing the SNP — the thing that has not changed in Scottish politics despite the turbulence of the last two and a half years — is support for independence. We are still around 50/50 on the independence question. "Although you hear a lot of talk of people not being concerned about independence anymore, just tell that to most unionist voters. Most unionist voters are deeply concerned about independence. "Very few people now are willing to vote for the SNP if they are opposed to independence. That is in complete contrast to the position in 2011." Professor Sir John Curtice at The Herald's Unspun Live (Image: Colin Mearns/NQ) Then, he said, around 40% of people who supported devolution but not independence voted for the SNP. But now the party was not picking up any new No voters and was only winning around three-fifths of independence supporters. Even if the SNP were to win a majority of seats, the academic said it was unlikely the UK Government would agree to a referendum. Last week's comments from the First Minister marked a change in strategy. Previously, the party said a "democratic majority" of pro-independence MSPs after the 2026 election should pave the way to a new vote. Mr Swinney said: "The necessity of independence is absolutely paramount and we have got to make that case in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections. "But there is a logjam and we have got to break that logjam. "We demonstrated how we break the logjam in the past, by electing a majority of SNP MSPs in 2011, and that led to an independence referendum in 2014." He invited supporters of independence to back his party in the constituency vote and to "demand independence" in the regional vote. Asked about how popular the First Minister is, Prof Curtice said Mr Swinney numbers had "been kind of steady since he became First Minister." "He is not as popular now as he was when he was Deputy First Minister," he added. "In an era of fragmented politics, that is still good enough to make him the least unpopular politician in Scotland." He added: "Anas Sarwar is still suffering from the shadow of Sir Keir Starmer. Kemi Badenoch — who is she? Nigel Farage is very strong and popular among a section of Scottish and British society." He said around 40% of Leave voters in Scotland were set to vote for Reform next year. Asked for predictions for next year's election, Prof Curtice said he thought it would be "child's play" for Reform to win at least 10 seats. Prof Curtice and Kevin McKenna and the Herald's Hannah Brown in conversation (Image: Colin Mearns/NQ) "I think Kemi Badenoch is becoming more effective, but it is very much a work in progress. The problem the Tories face is that Reform are not just taking voters, they are taking donors, they are taking people. "It is very difficult to see any outcome other than the SNP still providing government. What remains highly uncertain is how strong it will be. It could be as low as 45 seats. I think the maximum at the moment is 55 seats. "But 55 seats — you have only got to find one party to make a deal. With 45 you have got to find two, and that becomes much more difficult. "I think at the moment it is a race between Reform and Labour over who comes second, and unless the popularity of the Labour government improves, Labour may find themselves in much the same position as they are at the moment." "The lesson of the last Westminster parliament is not to presume that the outcome of the last election is going to determine what happens at the next one," he added. READ MORE Prof Curtice was also asked about Kate Forbes's decision to stand down at the next election. He described the outgoing Deputy First Minister as "one of the most talented politicians within the current parliament". "Some of us are old enough to remember those promises 25 years ago of a family-friendly parliament," he added. "She is not the only person who has found it difficult to combine parenthood with being an MSP. To that extent, I think the Parliament should reflect back on whether or not it is going to make it possible for people with young children, particularly those in rural constituencies, to be MSPs."
The Herald Scotland
2 days ago
- The Herald Scotland
Kate Forbes quits: what it means for the SNP
"I'm going to be held to account for what we deliver,' she added. Well, not any more. READ MORE The news that she will not stand at next year's election has properly stunned the SNP group at [[Holyrood]] and the wider party. The timing of the announcement that she wants to spend more time with her young family is not coincidental. Today is her daughter Naomi's third birthday. There is something a bit jarring about some of the tributes paid to Ms Forbes, especially those by people who had attacked and briefed against her during 2023's bitter SNP leadership campaign. But that's politics, I suppose. John Swinney recently claimed to have 'healed' his party, but the scars from that lengthy battle between Ms Forbes, Humza Yousaf and Ash Regan are still fresh. And while his deputy's decision to stand down means the race to replace John Swinney is now likely to be between Stephen Flynn and Mairi McAllan, could it also signal a change in the party's politics? 'Kate was holding back some of the wilder current obsessions,' one MSP told me. 'As we approach the election, watch the party stance on so-called conversion therapy' they added. Plans for a ban were shelved after [[John Swinney]] succeeded Mr Yousaf as First Minister, with the Scottish Government instead working with UK ministers on Westminster-led legislation. There is, of course, an election looming, one where, thanks to Nigel Farage, the result is still widely unpredictable. It may be that the SNP needs to look, once again, at the Greens for help in forming a government. No Kate Forbes, and a move on conversion therapy could make those Bute House Mk2 conversations a little easier. Another senior SNP source said they thought Ms Forbes' resignation was a damning indictment of the party's chances next year. 'We're losing parts left right and centre' they said. 'It doesn't bode well for John's plan to win a majority next year - if there was even a glimmer of that happening I doubt she'd have thrown in the towel.' Another thing about the timing of the announcement is that it comes just days before the Deputy First Minister is due to sit down with The Herald at the Edinburgh Festival Fringe for a long form interview in front of a live audience. The chat will take place in the Dissection Room at Summerhall, the capital's old vet school. There is plenty to dissect.
The Guardian
2 days ago
- The Guardian
Young Liberals urge Coalition to distance itself from Sky News and blame Maga ‘mirage' for Dutton loss
The Young Liberals want the Coalition to distance itself from Sky News and appeal to voters through a wider variety of media outlets, blaming Donald Trump-style culture wars for Peter Dutton's historic election rout. In a submission to the party's election postmortem, obtained by Guardian Australia, the New South Wales Young Liberals division said the 'fringe right' of the Liberal membership had too much influence over policy and campaign media, causing 'a mirage of the Maga movement' which turned off women and multicultural voters. The 31-page assessment, handed to the review being led by Liberal elders Pru Goward and Nick Minchin, is scathing of the campaign run by Dutton and his frontbench team, describing them as badly outplayed by Labor and out of touch with traditional Liberal constituencies. The document has not been released publicly and was provided to Guardian on the condition of anonymity. 'The 2025 election proved that being one of the loudest media voices in the room does not mean voters are listening to you,' it said. 'Viewership data shows that most Australians do not engage with overtly political commentary on traditional media, such as evening commentators on Sky News. Yet much of our party's policy agenda and media appearances during the campaign were stuck in a conservative echo-chamber.' Sign up: AU Breaking News email Labor won 94 seats, its biggest victory in decades, while the Coalition was reduced to 43 seats in the lower house. Pointing to Dutton directly, the submission said the parliamentary leader must 'front up' to a range of media outlets, including those not considered 'traditionally friendly' to the Liberal and Nationals parties. Ahead of his 3 May defeat, Dutton did the opposite. He was criticised for not regularly fronting the Canberra press gallery in the lead-up to the campaign and dubbed the ABC and Guardian 'hate media' in the final days before the poll. The Young Liberals called out senior figures for demonising Chinese-Australians and exacerbating division related to war in the Middle East. Frontbencher Jacinta Nampijinpa Price was criticised for declaring a Dutton government would 'make Australia great again,' echoing Trump's slogan just as the Coalition was trying to distance itself from the unpopular US president's policies and rhetoric. 'The Coalition must refrain from pursuing culture war issues and respect the intelligence of the Australian people by formulating nuanced, meaningful policy,' it said. On promises to voters, the submission was equally downcast. It said major policies should be announced with more lead time and accompanied by sufficient costings detail. It criticised Dutton's signature plan for development of nuclear power in Australia, and the decision to oppose Labor's tax cuts. 'Coalition policies such as the promise to cut 40,000 public service jobs, Peter Dutton's refusal to stand before the Indigenous and Torres Strait Islander flags, and a crackdown on 'woke' culture in schools all reinforced the perception of a party more interested in symbolic battles than addressing serious domestic and international issues,' it said. The opposition leader, Sussan Ley, has commissioned Minchin and Goward to assess the loss, and ordered a second review into the Liberal party's structure. One question being considered is how to boost female representation in Coalition ranks. The Young Liberals have called for a 2015 party review to be implemented, including an aspirational national target for 50-50 gender parity in parliament, but suggested Labor-style quotas could be required. 'Ultimately, the Liberal Party doesn't look like modern Australia. Australians notice, and it matters,' the submission said. Submissions to the review were due by Friday, with a report expected by the end of the year.
