logo
BofA's Cabana Expects Some Tariff Inflation Signs in CPI

BofA's Cabana Expects Some Tariff Inflation Signs in CPI

Yahoo14-07-2025
Mark Cabana, head of US rates strategy at Bank of America Global Research, says the firm's base case is for inflation to emerge from tariffs and sees June CPI data giving markets "a bit of pause" on justifying a Federal Reserve rate cut priced in for September.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

U.S. Hiring Was Weak in July, With 73,000 Jobs Added
U.S. Hiring Was Weak in July, With 73,000 Jobs Added

Yahoo

time25 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

U.S. Hiring Was Weak in July, With 73,000 Jobs Added

U.S. job growth slowed in July, a signal that pockets of weakness that had been marring the labor market are starting to take hold. The U.S. added a seasonally adjusted 73,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department reported Friday, below the gain of 100,000 jobs economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected to see. Why Ford's Made-in-America Strategy Hurts It in Trump's Trade War Ray Dalio Sells Last Stake in Bridgewater, the Hedge Fund That Made Him a Billionaire Community Callout: What Would You Ask a Mega-Millionaire About Money? Big Tech's $400 Billion AI Spending Spree Just Got Wall Street's Blessing Amazon Shares Fall Because Cloud Unit's Growth Wasn't Enough for Wall Street The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% from 4.1%. Hiring in May and June was much weaker than previously reported. Revisions showed employers added a combined 258,000 fewer jobs in May and June than previously estimated. July's report comes as economists and policymakers are trying to figure out which of two competing narratives about the economy is more true. One view is that of surprising resilience. Tariff threats, though they have started to seep into some prices, have yet to translate into pronounced inflation. Consumers, after holding back earlier in the year, are feeling a bit more confident. The other perspective is that cracks are starting to appear and could deepen. Some companies, such as Procter & Gamble and Chipotle Mexican Grill, are reporting that customers are becoming more sensitive to prices. Young consumers in particular are cutting back on discretionary spending, and much of the economy's growth is being driven by the wealthiest Americans. 'Everyone is trying to understand what direction the economy is taking,' said Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS. Guy Berger, senior fellow at labor-market think tank Burning Glass Institute, is of the opinion that the economy is still stable. 'You look at almost every major indicator,' Berger said, 'and they have all been pretty steady since last fall.' One factor that hasn't been steady, though, is the policy backdrop. 'I would not bet a lot of money on things staying stable going forward,' Berger said, citing tariffs, restrictions on immigration and a big new tax bill. Economists are paying particular attention to changes in the supply of workers. A dramatic decrease in border crossings is constraining the number of people from abroad coming into the labor force. High-profile immigration raids are keeping many workers at home. Meanwhile, the U.S. is aging, boosting retirements and limiting the number of younger people joining the workforce. A year and a half ago, the economy needed to add 166,000 jobs a month to keep the labor market steady, according to Peterson Institute for International Economics senior fellow Jed Kolko. As of June, Kolko said, the needed number was only 86,000. 'It's fallen so much because this immigration surge has ended,' Kolko said. In other words, a job creation number that might have looked lackluster a year and a half ago might actually be strong today. Recently, the number of jobs created each month has been slowing, but the unemployment rate has risen only slightly. 'People are going to have to get used to employment gains that are meh that will not tell us on their own that the job market is weak,' said Berger. 'That is a weird thing for people to get used to.' Write to Rachel Wolfe at Shake Shack Leans Into Innovation to Keep Customers Coming Figma Shares Jump 250% in Their Stock-Market Debut Apple's iPhone Sales Blow Past Estimates as Customers Raced to Beat Tariffs UnitedHealth Group Replaces CFO John Rex Here's How Companies Are Dealing With $50 Billion of New Tariffs Sign in to access your portfolio

US labor market adds 73,000 jobs in July while unemployment rate hits 4.2%
US labor market adds 73,000 jobs in July while unemployment rate hits 4.2%

Yahoo

time25 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

US labor market adds 73,000 jobs in July while unemployment rate hits 4.2%

The latest monthly jobs report showed the US labor market added fewer jobs than expected in July while the unemployment rate moved higher and revisions to prior months revealed significantly less jobs had been added in recent months than initially thought. The US economy added 73,000 nonfarm payrolls in July less than than the 104,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate moved up to 4.2% from 4.1% the month prior, in line with expectations from economists. In June, the US economy added 14,000 jobs while the unemployment ticked lower to 4.1%. Those figures were revised significantly lower on Friday from an initial reading of 14,7000. Revisions showed the labor market added 258,000 less jobs than initially thought in May and June. Average hourly earnings in July rose 3.9% over last month and 0.3% over the prior year. Economists expected wages to rise 0.3% over last month and 3.8% over the prior year. Meanwhile the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% from 62.3% the month prior. The latest labor market data was released just two days after the Federal Reserve opted to hold interest rates steady at its July meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the labor market as "solid" and pointed to a "historically low" unemployment rate as a key metric to watch when assessing the health of the jobs picture in America. Powell admitted job creation has shown slowing, but that has come with a decrease in labor supply due to less immigration, therefore keeping the broad labor market picture in balance. Recent data has reflected signs of this slowing. On Wednesday, data from ADP showed private payrolls grew by 104,000 in July, above the 75,000 expected by economists and a rebound from the 23,000 job losses seen in June. But as the chart below shows, overall hiring momentum has slowed in the private sector in recent months. "We are in a labor market that has recalibrated to a lower average level," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told Yahoo Finance on a call with reporters. "The good news here is that that level is still solid enough to support the consumer, and that ultimately will be the tried-and-true test of the health of the labor market. Will consumers keep spending?" Elsewhere in labor market data, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.44 million jobs open at the end of June, a decrease from the 7.71 million seen the month prior. The hiring rate ticked lower to 3.3% from the 3.4% seen the month prior and stood at its lowest level since November 2024. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slump after weak jobs report, Trump's sweeping tariffs, Amazon's earnings flub
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slump after weak jobs report, Trump's sweeping tariffs, Amazon's earnings flub

Yahoo

time25 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slump after weak jobs report, Trump's sweeping tariffs, Amazon's earnings flub

US stock futures sank on Friday after President Trump officially hit virtually every US trading partner with sweeping tariff hikes, while the June jobs report showed signs of a labor market slowdown. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) dropped 0.9%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell around 1%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) also sank around 1%, on the heels of a losing day for the major US gauges. The retreat in stocks came as markets assessed the reshaped US trade landscape after President Trump on Thursday hit dozens of countries — including crucial partners Taiwan and India — with steep new tariffs. His executive order formally authorized a hike in levies on Canada to 35%, to go into effect on Friday. Most of the other "reciprocal" rates range from 15% to 40% (though the baseline remains 10%) and will be implemented in seven days. The White House also confirmed details of trade agreements negotiated by some trading partners before the Aug 1. deadline for "Liberation Day" tariffs to hit. But Trump said the implementation of the hiked levies will be pushed back by seven days, opening up scope for more talks. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs The June jobs report released Friday morning came in weaker than expected, with the economy adding some 73,000 jobs, versus 104,000 expected. The prior two months were also revised down. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, as expected. The key indicator of US economic health will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve, whose preferred inflation gauge on Thursday showed signs of increasing price pressures. Also dragging on spirits was disappointment over Amazon's (AMZN) earnings released late Thursday. The performance of its AWS cloud unit failed to live up to lofty expectations set by rivals Google (GOOG, GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), sending its shares down over 8%. But Apple (AAPL) stock rose after its results beat expectations, boosted by surprisingly strong iPhone sales. US labor market adds 73,000 jobs in July while unemployment rate hits 4.2% Stock futures fell premarket after the July jobs report showed US nonfarm payrolls missed estimates. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) dropped 0.9%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell around 1%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) sank 1.1%. Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer reports: Read more here. European stocks slide after Trump announces new tariffs European stocks fell on Friday after President Trump confirmed new tariff rates, including a 15% tariff rate on goods from the European Union and a 10% rate for the UK. In London, the benchmark FTSE 100 index (^FTSE) fell 0.5%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 (^STOXX) index shed 0.75%, while Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) dropped 1.89% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris declined 2%. In a twist, Trump said the new tariffs will take effect a week from now, instead of today, as was originally telegraphed. Still, global markets were rattled by the latest change to US trade policy. Swiss manufacturers warned Friday that tens of thousands of jobs are at risk after President Trump imposed steep tariffs. European pharmaceutical companies, such as Novo Nordisk (NVO) and AstraZeneca (AZN), were also in the red Thursday and will be stocks to watch Friday after Trump sent a letter to 17 companies, urging them to lower prices. Good morning. Here's what's happening today. Economic calendar: Nonfarm payrolls (July); Unemployment rate (July); Average hourly earnings (July); Average weekly hours worked (July); Labor force participation rate (July); ISM manufacturing (July); S&P Global US manufacturing (July final); Construction spending (June); University of Michigan consumer sentiment (July final) Earnings: Chevron (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Exxon Mobil (XOM) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: July jobs report on deck: What to expect Trump stuns markets again with latest bid to reshape US trade order Trump: Fed board should assume control if Powell won't cut rates Trump lays out sweeping tariff hikes for dozens of countries Amazon stock sinks as cloud results fail to impress Moderna beats estimates on COVID booster sales, cost cuts Exxon beats profit estimates as output rises despite weak oil prices Chevron beats Wall Street profit estimates with record output Big Tech's AI and core businesses are blurring together This week, investors heard quarterly updates from Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META). And in the midst of strong quarterly financial results from Big Tech, a new paradigm is emerging, Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban wrote in today's Morning Brief. Hamza writes: Read more here. Chevron beats Wall Street profit estimates with record production Chevron (CVX) beat analyst estimates on Friday for second-quarter profit as record oil and gas production and lower capital expenditure helped the US oil producer boost earnings despite weaker crude prices. Chevron shares were flat in premarket trading. Reuters reports: Read more here. Exxon beats profit estimates with higher production despite weak oil prices Shares in Exxon Mobil (XOM) rose more than 1% before the bell on Friday after the company beat Wall Street estimate for second-quarter profit as higher oil and gas production helped the top US oil producer overcome lower crude prices. Reuters reports: Read more here. Eyes on Figma, day two After a sizzling 250% surge on Thursday IPO day, Figma (FIG) is up another 8% premarket. You are watching the forming of a stock bubble in real time here! I encourage you to read up on the company's not-so-impressive financials this weekend. US stock losses pick up pace after Trump's tariff blitz The retreat in US stock futures accelerated on Friday morning as Wall Street weighed the likely fallout from President Trump's trade war. The broad benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F) was down 1% with four hours to go before the market open, having held not far below the flat line in earlier overnight trade. Futures on The Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) sank 0.9%, while contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) dived 1.1%. Markets are assessing the reshaped US trade landscape after President Trump on Thursday hit dozens of countries — including crucial partners Taiwan and India — with steep new tariffs. July jobs report on deck: What to watch The countdown is on for the release of the US nonfarm-payrolls reading for July, the final piece in a string of top-tier data this week. Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer lays out what's in store: Read more here. Asian markets slide as tariffs rock global boat Asian markets fell overnight Thursday following the White House's announcement that Trump's sweeping tariffs on many of America's largest trading partners will be implemented in varying degrees of severity. Reuters reports: Read more here. US labor market adds 73,000 jobs in July while unemployment rate hits 4.2% Stock futures fell premarket after the July jobs report showed US nonfarm payrolls missed estimates. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) dropped 0.9%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell around 1%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) sank 1.1%. Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer reports: Read more here. Stock futures fell premarket after the July jobs report showed US nonfarm payrolls missed estimates. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) dropped 0.9%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell around 1%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) sank 1.1%. Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer reports: Read more here. European stocks slide after Trump announces new tariffs European stocks fell on Friday after President Trump confirmed new tariff rates, including a 15% tariff rate on goods from the European Union and a 10% rate for the UK. In London, the benchmark FTSE 100 index (^FTSE) fell 0.5%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 (^STOXX) index shed 0.75%, while Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) dropped 1.89% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris declined 2%. In a twist, Trump said the new tariffs will take effect a week from now, instead of today, as was originally telegraphed. Still, global markets were rattled by the latest change to US trade policy. Swiss manufacturers warned Friday that tens of thousands of jobs are at risk after President Trump imposed steep tariffs. European pharmaceutical companies, such as Novo Nordisk (NVO) and AstraZeneca (AZN), were also in the red Thursday and will be stocks to watch Friday after Trump sent a letter to 17 companies, urging them to lower prices. European stocks fell on Friday after President Trump confirmed new tariff rates, including a 15% tariff rate on goods from the European Union and a 10% rate for the UK. In London, the benchmark FTSE 100 index (^FTSE) fell 0.5%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 (^STOXX) index shed 0.75%, while Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) dropped 1.89% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris declined 2%. In a twist, Trump said the new tariffs will take effect a week from now, instead of today, as was originally telegraphed. Still, global markets were rattled by the latest change to US trade policy. Swiss manufacturers warned Friday that tens of thousands of jobs are at risk after President Trump imposed steep tariffs. European pharmaceutical companies, such as Novo Nordisk (NVO) and AstraZeneca (AZN), were also in the red Thursday and will be stocks to watch Friday after Trump sent a letter to 17 companies, urging them to lower prices. Good morning. Here's what's happening today. Economic calendar: Nonfarm payrolls (July); Unemployment rate (July); Average hourly earnings (July); Average weekly hours worked (July); Labor force participation rate (July); ISM manufacturing (July); S&P Global US manufacturing (July final); Construction spending (June); University of Michigan consumer sentiment (July final) Earnings: Chevron (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Exxon Mobil (XOM) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: July jobs report on deck: What to expect Trump stuns markets again with latest bid to reshape US trade order Trump: Fed board should assume control if Powell won't cut rates Trump lays out sweeping tariff hikes for dozens of countries Amazon stock sinks as cloud results fail to impress Moderna beats estimates on COVID booster sales, cost cuts Exxon beats profit estimates as output rises despite weak oil prices Chevron beats Wall Street profit estimates with record output Economic calendar: Nonfarm payrolls (July); Unemployment rate (July); Average hourly earnings (July); Average weekly hours worked (July); Labor force participation rate (July); ISM manufacturing (July); S&P Global US manufacturing (July final); Construction spending (June); University of Michigan consumer sentiment (July final) Earnings: Chevron (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Exxon Mobil (XOM) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: July jobs report on deck: What to expect Trump stuns markets again with latest bid to reshape US trade order Trump: Fed board should assume control if Powell won't cut rates Trump lays out sweeping tariff hikes for dozens of countries Amazon stock sinks as cloud results fail to impress Moderna beats estimates on COVID booster sales, cost cuts Exxon beats profit estimates as output rises despite weak oil prices Chevron beats Wall Street profit estimates with record output Big Tech's AI and core businesses are blurring together This week, investors heard quarterly updates from Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META). And in the midst of strong quarterly financial results from Big Tech, a new paradigm is emerging, Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban wrote in today's Morning Brief. Hamza writes: Read more here. This week, investors heard quarterly updates from Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META). And in the midst of strong quarterly financial results from Big Tech, a new paradigm is emerging, Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban wrote in today's Morning Brief. Hamza writes: Read more here. Chevron beats Wall Street profit estimates with record production Chevron (CVX) beat analyst estimates on Friday for second-quarter profit as record oil and gas production and lower capital expenditure helped the US oil producer boost earnings despite weaker crude prices. Chevron shares were flat in premarket trading. Reuters reports: Read more here. Chevron (CVX) beat analyst estimates on Friday for second-quarter profit as record oil and gas production and lower capital expenditure helped the US oil producer boost earnings despite weaker crude prices. Chevron shares were flat in premarket trading. Reuters reports: Read more here. Exxon beats profit estimates with higher production despite weak oil prices Shares in Exxon Mobil (XOM) rose more than 1% before the bell on Friday after the company beat Wall Street estimate for second-quarter profit as higher oil and gas production helped the top US oil producer overcome lower crude prices. Reuters reports: Read more here. Shares in Exxon Mobil (XOM) rose more than 1% before the bell on Friday after the company beat Wall Street estimate for second-quarter profit as higher oil and gas production helped the top US oil producer overcome lower crude prices. Reuters reports: Read more here. Eyes on Figma, day two After a sizzling 250% surge on Thursday IPO day, Figma (FIG) is up another 8% premarket. You are watching the forming of a stock bubble in real time here! I encourage you to read up on the company's not-so-impressive financials this weekend. After a sizzling 250% surge on Thursday IPO day, Figma (FIG) is up another 8% premarket. You are watching the forming of a stock bubble in real time here! I encourage you to read up on the company's not-so-impressive financials this weekend. US stock losses pick up pace after Trump's tariff blitz The retreat in US stock futures accelerated on Friday morning as Wall Street weighed the likely fallout from President Trump's trade war. The broad benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F) was down 1% with four hours to go before the market open, having held not far below the flat line in earlier overnight trade. Futures on The Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) sank 0.9%, while contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) dived 1.1%. Markets are assessing the reshaped US trade landscape after President Trump on Thursday hit dozens of countries — including crucial partners Taiwan and India — with steep new tariffs. The retreat in US stock futures accelerated on Friday morning as Wall Street weighed the likely fallout from President Trump's trade war. The broad benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F) was down 1% with four hours to go before the market open, having held not far below the flat line in earlier overnight trade. Futures on The Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) sank 0.9%, while contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) dived 1.1%. Markets are assessing the reshaped US trade landscape after President Trump on Thursday hit dozens of countries — including crucial partners Taiwan and India — with steep new tariffs. July jobs report on deck: What to watch The countdown is on for the release of the US nonfarm-payrolls reading for July, the final piece in a string of top-tier data this week. Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer lays out what's in store: Read more here. The countdown is on for the release of the US nonfarm-payrolls reading for July, the final piece in a string of top-tier data this week. Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer lays out what's in store: Read more here. Asian markets slide as tariffs rock global boat Asian markets fell overnight Thursday following the White House's announcement that Trump's sweeping tariffs on many of America's largest trading partners will be implemented in varying degrees of severity. Reuters reports: Read more here. Asian markets fell overnight Thursday following the White House's announcement that Trump's sweeping tariffs on many of America's largest trading partners will be implemented in varying degrees of severity. Reuters reports: Read more here. Sign in to access your portfolio

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store