Indian agriculture's prospects depend on innovating and adopting genetic tech

Indian Express

10 hours ago

As the July 9 deadline approaches, US negotiators are turning up the heat, urging India to open its agriculture market to genetically modified (GM) crops. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has declared agriculture and dairy as sacrosanct 'red lines,' warning that accepting GM imports could jeopardise both farmers' livelihoods and food safety. Meanwhile, global GM crop adoption has skyrocketed since 1996. As of 2023, over 200 million hectares of GM soyabean, maize, canola, and more are in cultivation across 76 countries. India's refusal to budge can become a major challenge in sealing the trade deal.
The only crop that is GM in India is cotton. It was Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government in 2002 when this bold decision to allow Bt cotton was taken. Today, more than 90 per cent of India's cotton area is under Bt cotton, and its seed is fed to cattle. So, in a way, a GM crop is already in our food system. The cotton seed oil is consumed by humans, although some scientists suggest that the oil does not carry the protein that the seed has. Earlier, even poultry feed, such as soya and corn, was also imported — this was GM. So, one thing is clear — it would be wrong to claim that GM food has not been in our food chain. It has been there for quite some time, mainly through cattle or poultry feed.
Vajpayee envisioned that science could transform agriculture. He extended the original slogan of 'Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan' (salutation to the soldier and the farmer), given by Lal Bahadur Shastri, to include 'Jai Vigyan' (salutation to science). The results were dramatic. Cotton production surged from 13.6 million bales in 2002–03 to 39.8 million bales in 2013–14 — a phenomenal 193 per cent growth. Productivity shot up by 87 per cent (from 302 kg/ha to 566 kg/ha), and cultivated area expanded by 56 per cent, with Bt cotton dominating. Farmers' incomes soared, and Gujarat even witnessed an agrarian boom — the state averaged over 8 per cent annual growth in agri GDP. By then, India had become the world's second-largest cotton producer after China and the second-largest exporter after the US, hitting $4.1 billion of net exports during 2011-12.
Since 2015, however, India's cotton story has hit a roadblock. Productivity gains have not only flattened but even dipped. The yield has slumped from 566 kg/ha in 2013-14 to around 436 kg/ha in 2023-24 — far below the global average of approximately 770 kg/ha, and way behind China's nearly 1,945 kg/ha and Brazil's around 1,839 kg/ha. This decline is commensurate with a roughly 2 per cent average annual drop in cotton production since 2015, driven largely by pest outbreaks like pink bollworm and whiteflies, tangled regulations, and a prohibition on next-generation cotton seeds such as herbicide-tolerant (HT) Bt cotton.
HT-Bt cotton, engineered to survive glyphosate spraying, never received official clearance in India —trials by Mahyco-Monsanto were suspended over a decade ago, and no approval has followed. Despite this, the seeds have leaked into farms across Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Punjab. Industry bodies and surveys estimate that illegal HT-Bt covers 15–25 per cent of cotton acreage. This illegal spread reflects farmers' desperate response to technology and pest attacks. Yet, because these seeds are unregulated, farmers risk crop failure with no recourse, and legitimate seed suppliers are undercut by a shadow economy that harvests their brand names without accountability. The rise of illicit HT-Bt cotton underscores a deep disconnect between regulation and reality. While the government blocks commercialisation citing ecological and health concerns, the seeds continue to spread — unchecked and untested.
Since 2015, government intervention in private seed contracts has emerged as a major challenge to innovation in India's cotton sector. The Cotton Seed Price Control Order (SPCO) of 2015 slashed Bt cotton seed royalties dramatically, rendering research and development unappealing. By 2018, trait fees had shrunk to a mere Rs 39 per packet — far too low to entice biotech firms to invest in new seed technologies. In 2016, additional regulations mandated that GM trait licensors transfer technology within 30 days and capped trait fees at 10 per cent of MSP for five years, with further annual cuts thereafter. By 2020, these restrictions tightened even further, deterring global biotech players from engaging in India's cotton industry.
India was poised to lead the gene revolution and serve as a major seed exporter to Asia and Africa. However, policy inertia — from 2003 to 2021—driven by activist and ideological opposition, deprived farmers of potential gains. Consequently, cotton exports began to decline after 2011-12, and by 2024-25, India turned into a net importer of raw cotton, with net imports valued at $0.4 billion.
The issue of GM crops goes far beyond Bt cotton. Approval for Bt brinjal and GM mustard (DMH 11), developed at Delhi University by Deepak Pental's team, remains on hold. These crops cleared in principle by the Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC) haven't received full commercial green light. Bt brinjal has been under moratorium since 2009, while GM mustard got conditional environmental release in 2022—but commercialisation has stalled pending further regulatory checks and potentially a Supreme Court ruling. By muzzling trait monetisation and hindering technology transfer, India's rigid regulatory posture has stalled crop innovation, forced reliance on imports, and squandered a chance to lead the gene revolution.
So, what should be done? The need of the hour is a strong, science-led political leadership. The future of agriculture belongs to technology adopters and innovators. Prime Minister Modi's slogan — 'Jai Anusandhan' (hail innovation) — is inspiring and is backed by an ambitious Rs 1 lakh crore RDI (Research, Development and Innovation) fund. But real progress needs commercial deployment of advanced biotech: Ht Bt cotton, Bt brinjal, GM mustard, and even GM soy and corn. From plate to plough, India's future depends on embracing gene technology. As Vajpayee often said, what IT (information technology) is for India, BT (biotechnology) is for Bharat. It can bring prosperity in rural areas.
Gulati is Distinguished Professor and Juneja is Research Fellow at ICRIER. Views are personal