Get ready for several years of killer heat, top weather forecasters warn
There's an 80% chance the world will break another annual temperature record in the next five years, and it's even more probable that the world will again exceed the international temperature threshold set 10 years ago, according to a five-year forecast released Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Meteorological Office.
'Higher global mean temperatures may sound abstract, but it translates in real life to a higher chance of extreme weather: stronger hurricanes, stronger precipitation, droughts,' said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn't part of the calculations but said they made sense. 'So higher global mean temperatures translates to more lives lost.'
With every tenth of a degree the world warms from human-caused climate change 'we will experience higher frequency and more extreme events (particularly heat waves but also droughts, floods, fires and human-reinforced hurricanes/typhoons),' emailed Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. He was not part of the research.
And for the first time there's a chance — albeit slight — that before the end of the decade, the world's annual temperature will shoot past the Paris climate accord goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and hit a more alarming 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of heating since the mid-1800s, the two agencies said.
There's an 86% chance that one of the next five years will pass 1.5 degrees and a 70% chance that the five years as a whole will average more than that global milestone, they figured.
The projections come from more than 200 forecasts using computer simulations run by 10 global centers of scientists.
Ten years ago, the same teams figured there was a similar remote chance — about 1% — that one of the upcoming years would exceed that critical 1.5 degree threshold and then it happened last year. This year, a 2-degree Celsius above pre-industrial year enters the equation in a similar manner, something UK Met Office longer term predictions chief Adam Scaife and scientist Leon Hermanson called 'shocking.'
'It's not something anyone wants to see, but that's what the science is telling us,' Hermanson said. Two degrees of warming is the secondary threshold, the one considered less likely to break, set by the 2015 Paris agreement.
Technically, even though 2024 was 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, the Paris climate agreement's threshold is for a 20-year time period, so it has not been exceeded. Factoring in the past 10 years and forecasting the next 10 years, the world is now probably about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter since the mid 1800s, World Meteorological Organization climate services director Chris Hewitt estimated.
'With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat. Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape,' said Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter.
Ice in the Arctic — which will continue to warm 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world — will melt and seas will rise faster, Hewitt said.
What tends to happen is that global temperatures rise like riding on an escalator, with temporary and natural El Nino weather cycles acting like jumps up or down on that escalator, scientists said. But lately, after each jump from an El Nino, which adds warming to the globe, the planet doesn't go back down much, if at all.
'Record temperatures immediately become the new normal,' said Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson.
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Scientific American
6 minutes ago
- Scientific American
Summer Meteor Showers, Short Summer Days and Ancient Arthropods
Rachel Feltman: Happy Monday, listeners! For Scientific American 's Science Quickly, I'm Rachel Feltman. It's been a while, but we're finally back with our usual science news roundup. Let's catch up on some of the science news you might have missed in the last week or so. If last Tuesday seemed to fly right by, that's probably because it was a little shorter than usual. The International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service says that July 22 was around .8 milliseconds short of the standard 24 hours. That's slightly less dramatic than the almost 1.4 milliseconds that were missing from July 10, and scientists anticipate another ever-so-slightly truncated day on August 5. Now, while there were plenty of headlines about these missing fractions of a milliseconds, it's not actually news that the Earth's rotation varies in speed. The length of a single rotation—also known as a day—is impacted by factors such as the movements of our planet's liquid core, variations in the jet stream and the gravitational pull of the moon. One 2024 study even suggested that melting polar ice has decreased Earth's angular velocity enough to slow rotations down. On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. In fact, earth's days have generally been trending longer if you look back at the last few billion years. Research suggests that at various points in the time before our species evolved, days were minutes and even hours shorter. But we always get our shortest days in the summer, and there have been some especially short ones over the last few years. Scientists aren't totally sure why that's been happening, but they expect the spike to flatten back down soon, according to reporting by The Guardian. Speaking of the movement of celestial heavenly bodies: two meteor showers are set to peak on the same evening this week. In the overnight from July 29 to 30 both the Southern delta Aquariids and the alpha Capricornids will be reaching the height of their activity. While the alpha Caricornids aren't known for dropping loads of visible objects, they do sometimes produce bright fireballs—plus they can be seen from anywhere on the planet. Meanwhile, folks in the Southern Hemisphere will also get a great view of the Southern delta Aquariids, and people farther north could catch some activity if they look southward. There will also be some scattered meteors from the Perseids, which will ramp up in activity next month. With the moon in a waxing crescent phase, conditions should be good for spotting meteors—as long as it's not too cloudy. 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The study authors pointed to a number of aspects of the pandemic—including increases in stress, alcohol consumption and economic insecurity, along with decreases in physical activity and socialization—that they believe may have made our brains age more quickly. We don't yet know what the implications of these changes might be or whether they're reversible. Speaking of brains—and to end our show on a fun story because you know I love to do that—let's talk about ancient sea critters. A recent study focused on the extinct species Mollisonia symmetrica, which lived around half a billion years ago, suggests that the ancestors of spiders and other arachnids may have started out in the ocean. In studying fossilized remains of the tiny creature, scientists found that its brain was basically backwards—at least compared to other arthropods. The layout is more similar to the way modern arachnid noggins are arranged, which suggests that spider brains may have first evolved in the sea. That's all for this week's news roundup. We'll be back on Wednesday to talk about some of this summer's hottest topics in the world of weather. Science Quickly is produced by me, Rachel Feltman, along with Fonda Mwangi, Kelso Harper and Jeff DelViscio. Shayna Posses and Aaron Shattuck fact-check our show. Our theme music was composed by Dominic Smith. Subscribe to Scientific American for more up-to-date and in-depth science news.
Washington Post
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Fox News
7 minutes ago
- Fox News
World's most premature baby defies all medical odds to reach 1st birthday
An Iowa family recently celebrated a major milestone for a very special baby. Mollie and Randall Keen welcomed their son, Nash Keen, on July 5, 2024. He was born 133 days early, at just 21 weeks gestation. Guinness World Records has officially recognized Nash as the world's most premature baby to survive. Earlier this month, Nash — affectionately nicknamed "Nash Potato" — turned 1 year old, defying all odds. When he was born at the University of Iowa Health Care Stead Family Children's Hospital, Nash weighed just 285 grams (10 ounces) at birth — less than a grapefruit — and measured 24 centimeters long, according to a press release from the hospital. Two years before Nash's premature birth, the Keens lost a baby girl, McKinley, at 18 weeks gestation. At that time, Mollie Keen was diagnosed with an incompetent cervix, which is when the lower part of the cervix begins to open (dilate) too early, typically in the second trimester, the release shared. She also suffers from polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), a hormonal disorder that can cause fertility difficulties. Six months after their loss, the Keens found out another baby was on the way. "When we went to our local doctor's office for the 20-week scan for Nash, I just had some concerns about how I was feeling, so I asked them to look at me closer — which they normally don't do at that appointment — and they found I was already 2 centimeters dilated," Mollie Keen said. A few days later, she began having contractions and was placed on bed rest. "We were devastated," she said. "We thought we were going through the exact same thing — we thought we were going to lose this baby." The medical team at Stead Family Children's Hospital's neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) provides life-saving care for babies born at 21 weeks gestation and later. Fortunately, Mollie's care team was able to delay labor until just 10 hours after Nash surpassed the 21-week mark. 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"It was a subtle but powerful shift – from day-to-day survival to long-term hope." Nash received ongoing care during his 198 days in the hospital, as the team monitored his heart function and brain health. In addition to receiving many medications, he also underwent surgery for a perforated bowel, which has up to a 40% mortality rate. "They were on top of it every step of the way. They really gave him a fighting chance," said Randall Keen. "They were really honest with us during the whole journey about what his chances looked like. They made sure we were well-informed and kept us involved in all the decision-making." After more than six months in the hospital, Nash was finally able to go home in January 2025. He will continue to be monitored for ongoing health issues, including a minor heart defect, and is currently being weaned from oxygen. Nash is still on a feeding tube and wears hearing aids. Although he has had some developmental delays, Nash is getting stronger and more interactive with the help of ongoing therapy sessions, according to his mother. Stanford shared her ultimate goal for Nash — "that by the time he's 5 years old when he goes to kindergarten, no one will know that he was born so early." "Nash's remarkable outcome reflects the progress we've made by building on the experiences of those patients who came before him," she added. For more Health articles, visit Mollie Keen shared that she wants Nash to know how loved he is — and "how many people have cheered him on from the very beginning." "I want him to grow up and be healthy, happy and confident in who he is. I want him to see his story as a source of strength."
