Turkiye, US ride out the storm of regional tensions

Arab News

16 hours ago

https://arab.news/mden9
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US President Donald Trump met on Tuesday for the first time since the latter's return to office in January. The meeting took place on the sidelines of the NATO Summit held in The Hague and came at a critical moment for Turkish-American relations. The talks between the two leaders were extensive and touched on key issues of mutual concern: the Israel-Iran truce, Ukraine-Russia negotiations, Gaza, Syria, and the F-35 fighter jet program.
Each of these topics needs a particular focus. However, it is important to first analyze Ankara's reaction to the recent US strikes on Iran. When America carries out strikes in the region, it often affects everything from regional power dynamics to global markets and Washington's relations with its allies and rivals. Ankara's response to the US strikes on Iran was interesting for Turkiye observers.
The attack came while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was visiting Turkiye. Araghchi held a rare press conference in Istanbul, directly addressing the Turkish media in the immediate aftermath of the strikes. Notably, he was not joined by a Turkish official, likely a deliberate move by Ankara to position itself as a neutral facilitator. Turkiye remains one of the few actors with viable backchannels to both Washington and Tehran.
Given Turkiye's rapid responses to regional developments, its reaction to the strikes reflected a broader pattern of what I see as strategic restraint. Although the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a strong statement expressing deep concern over the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, it stopped short of using the word 'condemnation.' This cautious wording appears calculated, as Turkiye aims to remain part of diplomatic efforts to de-escalate regional tensions and potentially host future negotiations.
Prior to the US strikes, Ankara had been working to persuade Iran to return to the negotiating table, while also urging Washington to avoid military escalation with Tehran. Also, Erdogan spoke with Trump twice in mid-June, reiterating Turkiye's support for the US-led nuclear talks with Iran and offering to assist in broader diplomatic efforts.
Turkiye aims to remain part of diplomatic efforts to de-escalate regional tensions and potentially host future negotiations
Dr. Sinem Cengiz
This measured and strategically calculated approach may be Ankara's best move in a volatile environment. Yet, the effectiveness of this approach depends heavily on the regional context. Why should Turkiye risk straining ties with Washington over a war that is not its own? Erdogan has significant expectations from the US on various dossiers. First and foremost, he is working to secure a meeting with Trump at the White House in the coming months. He also proposed hosting the 2026 NATO Summit — an important diplomatic opportunity for Ankara.
Second, Erdogan hopes to position Turkiye as a venue for peace talks between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is an ambitious diplomatic goal, but Trump has reportedly expressed a willingness to attend such talks if Putin agrees.
Third, Ankara is eager to maintain dialogue with Washington on Israel's genocidal war on Gaza — an issue overshadowed by the Israel-Iran war and the developments in Syria. Turkiye seeks to persuade Washington to end the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza.
Fourth, Syria remains a critical sticking point in Turkish-American relations. While Erdogan welcomed Trump's lifting of sanctions on Syria, the continued US support for the Syrian Democratic Forces — which Ankara considers a terrorist organization that poses a threat to Turkiye's national security — remains deeply contentious.
During the NATO Summit, Erdogan reportedly told Trump that, following the integration of SDF units into the Syrian national army, the continuation of US support would no longer be necessary. He emphasized that Syria, with Turkish backing, is capable of fighting Daesh and that American support should be gradually withdrawn.
Another priority for Ankara is that it expects to see the ceasefire reached between Israel and Iran become permanent
Dr. Sinem Cengiz
In addition to the SDF issue and the US sanctions, the Israeli factor further complicates matters. The Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory — carried out with Washington's knowledge — could become another challenging task in Turkish-American relations.
Another priority for Ankara is that it expects to see the ceasefire reached between Israel and Iran become permanent. Erdogan's 45-minute meeting with Trump was reportedly dominated by this issue. A day before the US strikes on Iran, it was reported that Erdogan and Trump had quietly attempted to arrange US-Iran talks in Istanbul to deescalate the tensions.
However, the plan collapsed not only due to the US strikes, but also because the Iranian supreme leader could not be reached to approve the meeting. Nevertheless, Ankara is expected to continue working toward US-Iran dialogue — not only to enhance its regional role but also because tensions directly impact its security and economy.
Finally, Erdogan said Turkiye has not given up on acquiring F-35 fighter jets from the US and has conveyed its desire to rejoin the program, from which it was removed over its purchase of Russian defense systems. Turkiye wants to advance cooperation with the US in the defense industry to achieve the goal of a $100 billion trade volume.
From Gaza and Syria to F-35s and US-Russia diplomacy, none of these issues can be resolved overnight. They require real political will on both sides and a mutual understanding of each other's expectations. Turkish-American ties are clearly taking a pragmatic direction and adopting a new dimension; yet these issues — some structural — will continue shaping the course of relations.
So far, Turkiye has navigated its relations with the Trump White House with careful diplomacy and strategic restraint. This is mainly because the two leaders have told their teams to avoid any deterioration in Turkiye-US relations amid the contentious climate in the region. Whether their approach will yield results remains to be seen.
• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye's relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz