Starmer will get it right after first getting it wrong … again
The consensus on his first year is that he has been uniquely skilled at making sure he suffers the maximum amount of pain for the very smallest amount of benefit. He has crossed the street to be punched in the face by blame.
He and Rachel Reeves have liked to brand this relentless stampede toward loathing as being unafraid to take 'tough decisions'. Scrapping means-tested winter fuel payments, hammering the disabled; these were 'tough' decisions.
And then, soon after, they were not afraid to take the even tougher decisions, of making themselves look ridiculous by not going through with them. In an interview to mark his first year, Starmer did not disagree with the verdict of a football friend who had called him 'a hard bastard'. He does himself down. To take all these tough decisions not once but twice is not merely hard but double hard.
Great British Energy, renationalised rail, renters' rights and employment rights; these are all theoretically popular ideas but no one has noticed. Why? Because the government has made a spectacular show of doing and undoing again some of the most unpopular policies in decades, actions from which no one gains and only they suffer.
Labour's second year began with a big bold plan to turn this frown upside down. What was Labour's most popular policy from the glory days of 1997? Sure Start centres, special community hubs for new parents that transformed life chances for children, which should never have been scrapped.
And so to the dispatch box came the education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, to announce the plan to bring back Sure Start, under the new name of 'Best Start'.
But, it not being 1997 any more, Phillipson and co had spent the weekend doing all they could to make sure no credit could come their way. Instead, what should have been the most popular policy announcement in ages was overshadowed by Labour's worst humiliation yet — the reform of funding entitlements for children with special educational needs.
This stuff is toxic. In a fractured and polarised Commons, the state of special needs education is the one area of unity. Every MP spent weeks last year knocking on doors, trying to win votes and in every part of the country they heard that there's a crisis in special educational needs.
While Phillipson spoke, members on both sides bobbed with enthusiasm. It was clear they were desperate to ask about anything other than the subject at hand. On Sunday, she'd been given a number of chances to assure the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that she would not be cutting the budget for special educational needs. That assurance did not come. On Monday morning on Times Radio, Stephen Morgan, the education minister responsible for early years, provided the same amount of reassurance — zero.
At the moment, more than half a million children receive thousands in what are called education, health and care plans (EHCPs), at a cost of £12 billion a year. Reforms to this system are coming in the autumn, and 'reforms' rarely mean anything other than spending less money.
Not for the first time in the past year, Mark Francois was the voice of reason, which tells you more than you need to know about the past year. 'The secretary of state has pointedly refused to rule out scrapping EHCPs,' he said. 'If that is her intention, could I offer her some advice: please don't do that.'
Did we hear a 'Don't worry, I won't'? No we did not. Francois got the Kuenssberg treatment. What we heard was the following: 'We are taking our time to get this right.'
If these words are frightening parents, they needn't worry. We know how it goes. 'Taking our time to get it right,' means one thing. Starmer and co have alighted on a third way all of their own. They'll get it right in the end, but only by first getting it wrong.
As the sign on President Reagan's desk never quite read, there is no limit to what a man can do, as long as he makes sure he never, ever gets the credit.
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