RIP Pope Francis
The 115th papal conclave to elect the 267th pope will convene in the next few days with 135 cardinal electors, so 90 votes needed to elect the new Pope. The first papal conclave was in 1276.
The Dean of the College of Cardinals would normally preside over the papal conclave but Cardinal Re is 91 years and Cardinal Sandri the vice Dean is 81 years old so the presiding Cardinal may be Cardinal Prevost from Chicago.
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NZ Herald
25 minutes ago
- NZ Herald
Round three - United States and China hold economic talks as trade truce nears end
The Trump Administration has been trying to win concessions from many countries before an August 1 deadline for reimposing tariffs announced in April. Those levies were suspended in order to reach trade deals. Over the last week, the Trump Administration has announced deals with some of America's biggest trading partners in quick succession. Last week the US and Japan finally agreed to a deal that included a 15% tariff on Japanese imports and a pledge from Japan to invest US$550 billion in the US. Today, Trump announced that he had also reached a deal with the European Union, whose economies rely on exports to the US. The deal would put a 15% tariff on many European exports, including cars. One of the biggest unknowns is what will happen with China, which remains one of America's largest source of imports. After a tit-for-tat period of tariffs and retaliation, the two nations have come to something of an uneasy truce after talks in Geneva in May, and in London in June. Today, before he met with European officials, Trump implied that some kind of trade arrangement with China might be close at hand. 'We just struck a deal with Japan as you know, and we're very close to a deal with China,' he said. This will be the first meeting between the countries without an imminent crisis, like the tariff standoff or China's economically crippling ban on rare earth exports this year. Trade experts said the list of potential topics for discussion was long, ranging from Trump's push to get China to stop the flow of fentanyl to the US, to America's concerns about its purchases of Russian and Iranian oil, and recent exit bans that have prevented US citizens from leaving China. US officials appear to be looking forward to more ambitious trade talks in the months to come. Those could include Chinese purchases of American products, steps to open the Chinese market and, potentially, Chinese investment in the US. They are also likely seeking to lay the groundwork for a potential meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, this year. Administration officials are considering a trip to Beijing before a meeting of Asian and Pacific countries in South Korea in October or potentially connecting Trump and Xi on the sidelines of an international meeting. Michael Pillsbury, a former government official who has advised the Trump Administration on China, said this would be Trump's sixth summit meeting with Xi. Each of those summits had a minimum of two hours of dialogue, and Trump went prepared with specific dealmaking requests, he said. 'The President feels it's better to deal face to face,' he said. Trade experts are also wondering whether US technology controls or an agreement to transfer ownership of TikTok may be on the negotiating table. On CNBC last week, Howard Lutnick, the Secretary of Commerce, said that the US had submitted a proposal to China for transferring ownership of TikTok to American companies, and that the Administration was waiting for the Chinese response. The topic was 'not officially' part of the trade talks, he said, 'but unofficially, of course'. Tensions between the US and China started to spiral after Trump announced his 'Liberation Day' tariffs in early April. China was the only country to immediately retaliate, matching Trump's tariffs of 34% with 34% tariffs on American products. Beijing also set up a licensing system to restrict exports of seven rare earth elements that are processed almost exclusively in China and used in electric cars, smart bombs and other high-tech devices. Trump then responded by ratcheting up tariffs on Chinese products to a minimum of 145%, which brought much of the trade between the countries to a halt. The previous rounds of negotiations secured a temporary truce that included China's relaxing its restrictions on shipments of valuable rare earth minerals and magnets needed by US manufacturers. In return, US officials agreed to roll back limits on exports of US products and technology, including ethane and airplane parts, as well as the proposed visa restrictions. US tariffs on Chinese imports were scaled back to 30%, while China has 10% tariffs on American products. The truce is scheduled to expire on August 12, after which tariffs would rise by 10%. However, Bessent has been optimistic that the truce could be extended. In an interview on the Fox Business Network last week, Bessent said that 'trade is in a good place' with China. He added that he hoped to begin having broader discussions with his counterparts about rebalancing the Chinese economy and encouraging China to curb purchases of Russian and Iranian oil. Bessent said China was in a manufacturing slump and faced a residential real estate market crisis. He argued Beijing must focus on building a consumer economy. 'They can't export their economic problems to the rest of the world; they need to solve them,' Bessent said. US companies continue to have a rash of criticisms about doing business in China, including the country's newly established rare earth licensing system. The processing time for licences is long, American firms say, and China requests proprietary and sensitive business information as part of the applications. In a survey released this month, members of the US-China Business Council said strained relations and tariffs between the two countries remained their biggest concerns. But they also said Chinese policies favouring domestic companies were eroding confidence in doing business in the country. This article originally appeared in The New York Times. Written by: Alan Rappeport and Ana Swanson ©2025 THE NEW YORK TIMES
RNZ News
12 hours ago
- RNZ News
Trump announces US and EU reached framework for a trade deal
By Auzinea Bacon and Alejandra Jaramillo , CNN US President Donald Trump is in Scotland. Photo: ANDY BUCHANAN President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the United States and the European Union reached a framework for a trade deal after talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Turnberry, Scotland. "The European Union is going to agree to purchase from the United States $750 billion worth of energy," Trump said. "They are going to agree to invest into the United States $600 billion more than they're investing already." Trump began talks with von der Leyen earlier Sunday with Friday's deadline looming to reach a trade deal to avoid 30 percent tariffs on European imports. Trump said the United States could not go lower than a 15 percent across-the-board tariff rate for the European Union. The framework comes after Trump announced duties on most EU goods would be increased from the 10 percent universal baseline to a 30 percent levy on August 1, citing that the United States and European Union have one of the "largest trade deficits" and failed to reach a deal by Trump's previous July 9 deadline. At a news conference ahead of the talks, Von der Leyen told Trump he is "known as a tough negotiator and dealmaker." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called Trump a "tough negotiator". Photo: AFP /NICOLAS TUCAT Trump reaffirmed that tariff letters to other US trading partners who failed to secure a deal will face new duties on Friday, with the exception of tariffs on steel and aluminium. "Most of the deals, other than steel and aluminium, which we've been getting 50 percent tariffs from," he said. Earlier on Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said there would be no further extensions or grace periods after August 1, but "big economies" can continue trade talks with the United States. Lutnick is in Scotland with Trump for EU trade talks. "August 1, the tariffs are set. They'll go into place," Lutnick said in an appearance on "Fox News Sunday." - CNN
Otago Daily Times
14 hours ago
- Otago Daily Times
Putting my poor prediction record on the line
"I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we [the US and China] will fight in 2025," wrote General Mike Minihan, head of US Air Mobility Command, in a private memo two years ago. There's still five months to go, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say he's wrong. Don't take my word for it, because my recent record in these matters is bad. I didn't think Russia's Vladimir Putin was crazy enough to invade Ukraine although I knew he was largely detached from reality, and I was wrong. For a long time I would not use the word "genocide" to describe what Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu was doing in Gaza, and I was wrong again. In my defence, I had not spent quality time with either man and I was reluctant to predict their actions based entirely on other people's estimates of their characters (especially since most of those people didn't know them personally either). I still felt compelled to weigh the pros and cons of the case, on the mistaken assumption facts had some influence on their decisions. The possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a far greater threat to the peace of the world (such as it is) than the relative sideshows in Ukraine and Israel/Palestine. Aircraft carriers and nuclear weapons on both sides. A few poorly planned displays of "determination" and the US is in a war with China — with the two Koreas and Japan not far behind. China's President Xi Jinping will never rule out using force to "recover" Taiwan, but the story he has set a 2027 deadline for that terrifying gamble is just a Washington think-tank special. He does harp on about it a lot though. Successive American administrations have practised strategic ambiguity (i.e., maybe the US would fight to defend Taiwan and maybe it wouldn't), and the fickle enthusiasms of Donald Trump muddy the waters even further. He is widely seen as a strategic coward (TACO), but he is sufficiently erratic that his response is really incalculable. As for Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te of the cautiously pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) serves up the usual word salad: "The message of history is clear. Today we share the same values and face similar challenges as many of the democracies that participated in the European war [1939-45]." Evasiveness as policy, so as not to rile China. Hou Yu-ih of Taiwan's largest opposition part, the Kuomintang (KMT), is even fuzzier: "The current status quo is that the Taiwan Strait is on the brink of war. So, to maintain close ties with the United States while also making peace with China is the solution to the problem." And although very few ordinary citizens want to be part of China, most people are not bothered by all this. Yes, Taiwan's military is a poorly trained, under-equipped shambles, but the public doesn't seem worried about a Chinese invasion. The United States is willing to sell Taiwan more and better weapons, but some parties don't want to spend the money. So I will risk my reputation as a soothsayer once again and assume both Xi Jinping and Lai Ching-te are rational men. In that case, it is unlikely either man will risk everything on one roll of the dice. Xi will not set the machinery in motion for a sea- and airborne invasion of Taiwan, and Lai will certainly not declare independence for Taiwan. No government of Taiwan, even back in the decades when the KMT (now reformed) was the tyrannical and maniacally anti-communist single ruling party, has ever seriously considered abandoning the sacred fiction that there is only one China including Taiwan. There is just a persistent non-violent dispute over which government is legitimate, Beijing or Taipei. As for Xi, who is effectively president-for-life, he faces no special deadline to claim his prize. "Reunification" is his legacy project, but he has just turned 72 and there's lots of time yet. And always before him is the nightmare example of Putin's three-day "special military operation" to bring Ukraine back under the rule of the Russian "motherland". Above all, there is Taiwan's "silicon shield". The island state manufactures 47% of the world's advanced semiconductor chips, including all of the most advanced ones. Even the United States is one generation behind, and so is China, despite its Deep Seek triumph in producing much cheaper high-performance AIs (on Nvidia chips made in Taiwan). Invade Taiwan and all that is gone. It might be irrational, but even the Trump administration might feel Taiwan is a treasure it must defend come what may. The game is not worth the candle, and Xi will not invade for at least three years. He probably never will. There! I said it! Now we wait and see. — Gwynne Dyer is an independent London journalist.
