Brown-Finnis' Euros semi-finals predictions

BBC News

3 days ago

Four teams are within touching distance of winning Euro 2025, including holders England, but who will make it to the final at St Jakob-Park in Basel on 27 July?The Lionesses take on Italy on Tuesday, while the other semi-final sees world champions Spain face Germany on Wednesday.BBC Sport football expert Rachel Brown-Finnis is predicting the outcome of all 31 games in Switzerland.She picked all four winners of the quarter-finals, meaning she has been right about 20 of the 28 (71%) matches so far.You were wrong about two of the last-eight ties, Italy's victory over Norway and Germany getting the better of France. Only 26% of you saw that last one coming, meaning your overall total is 18/28 (64%).There are only three games to go, so can you catch Rachel in the semi-finals? You can make your own predictions below.Before the tournament, Brown-Finnis chose seven of the eight teams that made it through to the knockout stage, including England, who she believes will win the tournament.
Semi-final ties
22 July, 20:00 BSTStade de Geneve, GenevaWorld ranking: 5th v 13thBest previous Euros finish: England - winners 2022; Italy - runner-up 1993 & 1997Live commentary on Radio 5 Live and BBC SoundsThe quarter-finals served up an absolute whirlwind of drama and I am expecting both semi-finals to be just as exciting.Whoever gets through each tie, it will not just come down to who is the best team - so many other factors will help decide the winner and all four of the remaining sides have already shown their different qualities and characteristics.One of England's is resilience and another is courage. I said during my commentary that when Lucy Bronze stuck away the winning penalty against Sweden, it was like Stuart Pearce's spot-kick in the shoot-out against Spain at Euro 96.All of Lucy's emotions and her pride to do that for her country came out. It's what tournament football is all about and it is a moment that will stick with everyone who watched it, myself included.
I'd love to say this game will be much more straightforward for England and that they will sail through but I think we've already learned that it won't be that easy.If you had offered England a semi-final against Italy before these Euros started, they would have taken it. Also, if I was predicting a game between the two teams back then, I would have been very confident and said I could only see a Lionesses win.Now, however, it is a very different scenario. We have seen Italy grow as this tournament has gone on, including their self-belief. They will think they can beat England and they are going to be very dangerous opponents.Fatigue could be one factor - the Azzure have had one day's more rest than England, who also had to get through extra-time and penalties - but the way Italy play is going to cause England problems too.
They deserved to beat Norway in the quarter-finals and their one defeat so far came against Spain in their final group game, after they went toe to toe with them at first.They took their foot off the gas against the world champions in the second half but I think that was only because of the circumstances in the Portugal-Belgium game and Italy knowing they were still going through as long as they did not lose too heavily.I don't expect them to hold back at all here. They will probably come absolutely flying out of the blocks after seeing how Sweden's fast start opened up Sarina Wiegman's side. I do think England will be better defensively than they were against Sweden, but they will have to be.Wiegman will have a different gameplan for this tie anyhow, in terms of how she sets her side up, but what she really needs is a performance for 90 minutes at the level we know England can produce rather than them just getting going in the second half, the way they did against Sweden.So, how they start this game is hugely important. England have to play no-risk football in the opening few minutes so they can feel their way into the game and get through the first 10 or 15 minutes unscathed.They can't leave the door open the way they did early on against Sweden or give Italy's attack any encouragement whatsoever. By that, I mean they must avoid playing themselves into trouble if they are under pressure when they play out from the back.This is Italy's first semi-final at a major finals since 1997 but they will feel they belong on this stage as much as England do and they certainly won't care that they are facing the holders. Going ahead would only boost their confidence further and I want to see England start on the front foot this time.Ultimately, Italy would probably be happy if this goes into extra-time, knowing England have more minutes in their legs, but I don't think this tie will get that far. It is going to be a very tough 90 minutes for all Lionesses fans as well as the players on the pitch but I am backing England to get the job done in normal time.Brown-Finnis' prediction: 2-1
23 July, 20:00 BSTStadion Letzigrund, ZurichWorld ranking: 3rd v 2ndBest previous Euros finish: Germany - Eight-time winners between 1989 & 2013; Spain - semi-finals 1997Watch live on BBC One, iPlayer and the BBC Sport website; live commentary on Radio 5 Live and BBC SoundsI had a feeling Germany would get the better of France somehow, and I was right, but what an amazing battle that quarter-final was.As a goalkeeper, I particularly enjoyed Ann-Katrin Berger's performance to help Germany get through. Her save to keep out team-mate Janina Minge's backward header was absolutely outstanding.All the aspects of it are so hard to execute - Berger was at full stretch, moving backwards and trying to push off. She was able to use her athleticism and long frame but also drew on her determination to just about keep the ball out of the net.It added to what had already been an exciting game, with Germany down to 10 players for so long before eventually getting through on penalties, with Berger again the hero.
Overall, it was the kind of team performance that epitomised Germany's progress in Switzerland, where they have packed a lot into their four games so far - good and bad. Very little has gone exactly to plan but against France they still found a way of winning.The way they responded after Kathrin Hendrich was sent off, you would not have known France had an extra player. That's credit to their manager Christian Wuck for instantly reorganising his team and also the resolve of their players.Just like England, Germany have shown they know how to get through games and they definitely know it is not always about winning pretty.All of this is why they are a team to be reckoned with and why they will be such tough opponents for Spain.
Spain are the world champions and the only team to have won all their games to get this far. They have also scored 16 goals in four matches and dominated possession each time but I still think they look vulnerable on the transition.Switzerland used their pace to get behind Spain's high line early in their quarter-final and Germany will feel they can get at them too.It will be interesting to see who starts up top for Germany and whether it is Giovanna Hoffman who leads their line again or if they come up with a different plan. They definitely won't have more of the ball than Spain but they are pretty clinical when they do get a sight of goal so they know they can still hurt them.Germany's intensity and resolve will help them here too and I would not be surprised if Berger produces another similar performance to keep them in this game - one way or another they are going to push Spain all the way.I am co-commentating on this game and I am already thinking it could go to penalties but when it comes to making a prediction, then I have to back Spain to do something special again to win the game beforehand. We know they are capable of it.Brown-Finnis' prediction: 2-3 after extra time