How Labor Party could still form government in Tasmania despite 'worst ever' election result
The results two days on show Tasmania Labor is still on track for its worst ever electoral performance with the party currently sitting on under 26 per cent of the primary vote with the Liberals on 40 per cent and the Greens capturing 14 per cent of voters first choices.
Labor's 2025 state election result is the party's worst electoral performance since 1903.
Despite the result, Labor is likely to end up with the same number of MPs as it did in the 2024 election when it achieved 29 per cent of the primary, while the Liberals had 14 seats – short of the 18 to form majority.
While Premier Jeremy Rockliff is claiming a mandate for the Liberal Party to continue in power, Labor leader Dean Winter may still work with the Greens and crossbenchers to form a minority government.
As the election night results rolled into the Tasmanian tally room, it looked increasingly like Mr Winter's election gamble had backfired.
What makes this election outcome different is unlike in the immediate aftermath of the 2024 result, the Labor leader has not refused to attempt to form government with the Greens and independent crossbench.
Despite ruling out any formal deal with the Greens, Mr Winter says he has already reached out to a number of independents.
The Greens have urged Labor to seek an arrangement with them to form government.
It is understood the Labor leader has yet to contact Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff. However for Labor to govern in any capacity, the Greens support in some form will be required.
Mr Rockliff who all but declared victory on Saturday night is adamant that he is the one with a mandate to govern.
'I do have a mandate, given we've got the largest number of seats,' the Premier told reporters on Monday.
'For Dean Winter to govern, he'll need to do a deal with the Greens for which he does not have a mandate from the Tasmanian people.'
The problem for the Liberals however is that with a likely 14 or possibly 15 seats, they are also well short of the 18 votes needed to command a workable majority on the floor of the 35-seat House of Assembly.
Additionally, with the former Jacqui Lambie members all losing their seats, the House will be without conservative leaning independents, with three of the four independents elected opposed to the Macquarie Point stadium.
The only crossbench member to support the project is former Labor leader David O Byrne, who said he could work with either side to form government.
There could be an additional new member to the crossbench with Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Carlo di Falco a chance to win in Lyons, however a final result is not expected for another week.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are opposed to the stadium, meaning one of Mr Rockliff's key commitments would only be delivered with Labor votes, regardless of who forms government.
Tasmania Labor's path to power looks less certain but they can count on Greens support in whatever form that comes (Mr Winter says the support would only be accepted without any conditions attached)
With a likely 10 seats from Labor and five from the Greens, Mr Winter would then only have to negotiate with three independents, something Mr Winter was unwilling to do just one month ago.
Saturday's election was held follow the passage of Labor leader's successful no confidence motion in Premier Rockliff's leadership with Mr Winter citing the botched roll out of new Spirit of Tasmania vessels, the state's growing budget deficit and the controversial Macquarie Point Stadium project as examples of Mr Rockliff's failed leadership.
Despite being in a position to put together a minority government as a result of the no confidence motion's passage, Mr Winter chose to decline the opportunity, leaving the state's Governor with no choice but to grant Mr Rockliff's wish to hold the state's second election in just 16 months.
Instead of a clear result. Tasmanian voters have returned very similar numbers as the last parliament.
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