How Trump's New Indonesia Pact and EU Retaliation Could Reshape Supply Chains

Globe and Mail

4 days ago

President Donald Trump announced a 19% tariff on Indonesian exports under a new bilateral pact, marking one of the few deals struck ahead of his August 1 deadline for harsher levies on most U.S. imports. The move comes as part of Trump's broader strategy to renegotiate trade terms and reduce America's yawning goods deficit. The agreement imposes a flat 19% duty on goods shipped from Indonesia while lifting all U.S. tariffs on American exports to the archipelago. It also targets so-called transshipments of Chinese products via Indonesia and includes commitments for Jakarta to purchase $15 billion in U.S. energy, $4.5 billion in farm goods and 50 Boeing jets, although no timetable was specified. Market Overview:
U.S. posted a nearly $18 billion trade deficit with Indonesia in 2024
Deal mirrors pact with Vietnam: higher export tariffs, no reciprocal duties
Penalties for Chinese transshipments embedded in the agreement
Indonesia pledges $15 billion energy, $4.5 billion agriculture, 50 Boeing jets
Key Points:
Arrives ahead of August 1 tariff escalation on most imports
Trump's tariff regime has driven average U.S. rates toward 20.6%
Framework deals also inked with UK and Vietnam; India talks progressing
EU readies €72 billion in retaliatory tariffs if U.S. talks with Europe fail
Looking Ahead:
Monitor Indonesia's implementation and enforcement of the 19% rate
Watch for EU countermeasures following the August 1 deadline
Assess impact on U.S. consumer prices and Indonesian export volumes
Track parallel negotiations with India, China and other key partners
Bull Case:
The 19% tariff pact with Indonesia marks a concrete step by the U.S. to address its nearly $18 billion trade deficit, leveraging American demand to secure reciprocal purchases of $15 billion in U.S. energy, $4.5 billion in agriculture, and 50 Boeing jets—potentially boosting American manufacturing, farming, and aerospace sectors.
By fully removing U.S. tariffs on American exports to Indonesia, the agreement opens up access to Southeast Asia's populous market for U.S. goods, providing a new growth channel for American exporters.
The inclusion of strict penalties on Chinese transshipments via Indonesia helps close loopholes, supporting the effectiveness of the administration's broader trade strategy and defending against tariff circumvention.
The deal, mirroring the earlier Vietnam pact, could serve as a playbook for future agreements with other trade partners, potentially creating leverage in ongoing talks with India and reinforcing America's position in global supply chain reshuffling.
Targeted agreements like this bring clarity and predictability for U.S. companies compared to sweeping global tariffs, helping the market to plan more effectively and encouraging investment in compliant supply chains.
Securing high-profile purchases of Boeing jets and U.S. commodities provides headline wins for American industries at a time of global economic uncertainty and competitive pressure from China and Europe.
Bear Case:
The imposition of a 19% flat tariff on all Indonesian exports and similar actions elsewhere risks significantly increasing U.S. input costs, fueling inflation, and reducing consumer and business purchasing power.
Without clear timelines or enforcement guarantees, Indonesia's commitments to buy U.S. energy, agriculture, and aircraft may be delayed, underdelivered, or dependent on favorable market conditions, limiting near-term benefits for American producers.
Elevated U.S. tariffs—now averaging more than 20%—could provoke widespread retaliation from key partners like the EU, which is preparing €72 billion in countermeasures, potentially harming U.S. exporters and jobs in affected sectors.
Supply chains may become more fragmented and expensive as companies scramble to adapt to shifting tariff landscapes and rules, creating operational headaches and long-term uncertainty for both U.S. and global businesses.
The risk of trade wars spreading—especially with the EU, China, and other major partners—could further diminish global growth, heighten volatility across markets, and undermine confidence in the international trading system.
The focus on bilateral over multilateral deals weakens historic alliances, may isolate the U.S. diplomatically, and leaves global companies navigating a patchwork of competing and unpredictable trade regimes.
The pact underscores Trump's unorthodox approach to trade, which has upended decades of falling tariffs and roiled global markets. Yale Budget Lab analysis suggests the effective U.S. tariff rate could spike to its highest level since 1933, reshaping supply chains and purchasing patterns. In Brussels, the European Commission accelerated plans to retaliate against $84 billion of U.S. exports—ranging from Boeing aircraft to bourbon—if negotiations falter. EU Trade Chief Maroš Šefčovič warned that 'it takes two hands to clap' and expressed unprecedented resolve to defend European industry.