How a new Carney-backed pipeline could spoil Trump's plans for Canada's oil
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Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised to transform Canada into an 'energy superpower.' His build-baby rallying cry for a construction boom even echoes U.S. President Donald Trump's drill-baby slogan for increased oil and gas. But when it comes to a new pipeline for Canada, their two visions could clash.
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'Canada has a tremendous opportunity to be the world's leading energy superpower, in both clean and conventional energy,' Carney said in April. 'We can lead the energy transition while ensuring affordable energy at home and building the strongest economy in the G7.'
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The prime minister said this month that it's 'highly, highly likely' that a new oil pipeline to the Pacific Coast will be proposed as a nation-building project and fast-tracked under new federal legislation aimed at accelerating projects of 'national interest.' Boosters of the pipeline plan see Canada maximizing its oil export revenues and diversifying its customer base after decades of being captive to U.S. buyers, perhaps reshaping North American energy flows.
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Trump, meanwhile, has said he wants to resuscitate the Keystone XL pipeline, the long-contested project that was supposed to carry nearly a million barrels of Alberta oil a day to the U.S. Midwest. He promised 'easy approvals' for investors willing to try it again, after it was blocked twice by two different Democratic presidents and its original backer, TC Energy, gave up.
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Any new pipeline will face political and regulatory hurdles on both sides of the border, and in March Trump hit Canadian oil imports with a 10 per cent tariff.
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The pipeline politicking could deepen the trade-war rift between Ottawa and Washington. It could also unexpectedly reshape the future of a North American energy market that has been increasingly tightly integrated since the middle of the last century.
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Trump or Tidewater
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Last weekend, while attending the Calgary Stampede, Carney said that Ottawa is prepared to prioritize a new pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific. During the recent federal election, he had promised to reduce Canada's reliance on the U.S. — a whopping 93 per cent of Canada's crude oil is shipped south of the border each year — by launching infrastructure projects and diversifying to new markets. Ottawa is keen to reduce Canada's dependence on a single customer, especially amid Trump's trade war.
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