
Morning Bid: US earnings to shed light on tariff impact
With markets largely inured to an ever-changing tariff picture, the spotlight turns to Wall Street earnings for clues on how the trade drama is affecting corporate bottom lines.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), opens new tab, Wells Fargo (WFC.N), opens new tab and Citigroup (C.N), opens new tab are among heavyweights reporting second-quarter results today.
Profits for S&P 500 companies in the second quarter are expected to rise 5.8%, according to LSEG data, down from a forecast of 10.2% on April 1, before U.S. President Donald Trump launched his trade war.
Investors are also waiting for U.S. consumer price data for June, looking for any sign of price pressure from tariffs or hints on policy moves by the Federal Reserve.
But the main Fed move Trump is gunning for is an early exit by Chairman Jerome Powell, who hasn't given in to the president's wish for "rocket fuel" rate cuts.
Bond markets are on edge about whether an investigation into renovations of the central bank's headquarters will serve as fodder to oust Powell.
Asian shares and Nasdaq futures got a bounce after Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab, the $4 trillion behemoth at the forefront of the artificial intelligence investment boom, said it will resume sales of its H20 chips to China.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will attend the opening ceremony of China's international supply chain expo on Wednesday, Chinese state TV said on Tuesday.
Stock futures in Europe and the broader U.S. market pointed to slight gains at their openings.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
- Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment for July
- Euro zone industrial production data for May
- U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) for June
- Canada CPI, housing starts for June
- U.S. earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock (BLK.N), opens new tab
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The Guardian
9 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Starmer and Merz to sign UK–Germany treaty targeting smuggling gangs and boosting defence ties
Keir Starmer will welcome Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, to Downing Street on Thursday to sign a new bilateral treaty that promises tighter action on smuggling gangs, expanded defence exports and closer industrial ties between the UK and Germany. The bilateral friendship and cooperation treaty marks the latest phase of Starmer's bid to rebuild Britain's influence in Europe – without reopening formal ties with the EU. The treaty includes a German commitment to make it illegal to facilitate unauthorised migration to the UK, closing off a key supply route used by smugglers operating from German territory. UK officials say the new law, expected to be passed by the end of the year, will give police and prosecutors the tools to target warehouses and logistical hubs used to store small boats and engines linked to Channel crossings. Police will be able to raid warehouses, seize assets and arrest facilitators even where no migrants are present, a move the UK government says will significantly disrupt the supply chain behind dangerous Channel crossings. This is a relatively late first visit for a German chancellor to the UK. Merz took office in May but officials on both sides say the delay was deliberate. In his first week, Merz travelled to Kyiv with Starmer, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, in a show of European unity. London and Berlin agreed Merz's visit should coincide with the signing of the treaty. It is expected to be focused on mutual security, including cyber and hybrid attacks, stating that 'there is no strategic threat to one which would not be a strategic threat to the other'. A senior German official stressed the treaty is not intended to 'replace' Nato guarantees or interfere with a future UK-EU security arrangement, but added that Brexit had left 'gaps' in coordination that needed to be filled. The agreement will also reaffirm an earlier plan to co-develop long-range weapons systems – following the Trinity House agreement in December – and includes new measures to improve youth and academic mobility. A senior German official said: 'We will enable visa-free school group travel between the UK and Germany, increasing opportunities for language, cultural and academic experiences. We will introduce the new programme by the end of 2025.' The official added that both governments would 'convene a joint expert group' to explore broader mobility solutions for 'educational and scientific institutions, cultural institutions and political organisations'. While the scheme could serve as a future model for EU-UK cooperation, the official confirmed it would apply only to Germany for now. While the war in Gaza is not on the formal agenda, officials said the fallout from Donald Trump's latest remarks on Russia – delivered just hours before Merz's departure – could surface in private discussions. Sign up to Headlines Europe A digest of the morning's main headlines from the Europe edition emailed direct to you every week day after newsletter promotion Berlin is increasingly concerned about the shifting transatlantic landscape, particularly the prospect of a second Trump administration weakening Nato cohesion or undermining European deterrence strategy. The treaty's timing, one official noted, reflects 'a need to adjust and renew' the UK-Germany relationship in a world where the US role in European security is, at best, in motion. The bigger picture for Starmer is that these back-to-back agreements with Paris and Berlin suggest a light activation of Europe's informal 'E3' grouping–with London, Paris and Berlin coordinating more closely on migration, defence and strategic competition. For Merz, the visit offers a platform to show leadership abroad as his fragile CDU/CSU-SPD coalition faces internal strains. The coalition is under pressure to deliver on its promise to revive economic growth after a prolonged downturn and to ramp up defence spending amid concerns over Russian aggression. With the far-right AfD gaining traction, the visit provides an opportunity to portray competence and reinforce Germany's industrial and security networks beyond the EU.


Reuters
9 minutes ago
- Reuters
Wall Street CEOs see some tariff impact filtering into customer behavior
NEW YORK, July 16 (Reuters) - Some top executives at Wall Street banks have been showing concern about higher inflation and potential deterioration of the U.S. economy as tariffs take effect, noting there has been more cautious behavior from corporate clients. "We have seen pauses in capex and hiring amongst our client base," Citigroup's Jane Fraser told analysts on Tuesday. "All of that said, the strength of the U.S. economy driven by the American entrepreneur and a healthy consumer has certainly been exceeding expectations of late." The bank expects consumer spending to cool in the second half if a spike in prices occurs. Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf said he has met with some commercial banking clients and described how they are navigating the new environment. "Many have found ways to avoid passing the 10% tariffs on to their customers," Scharf said. "At the same time, they are preparing for the downside and are not growing inventories or hiring aggressively and developing contingency plans if the downside scenario occurs", he told analysts. Scharf also expressed concern about financial assets. "We should recognize there is risk to the downside as the markets seem to have priced in successful outcomes." All six of the biggest U.S. banks - JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), opens new tab, Bank of America (BAC.N), opens new tab, Citigroup (C.N), opens new tab, Wells Fargo (WFC.N), opens new tab, Goldman Sachs (GS.N), opens new tab and Morgan Stanley (MS.N), opens new tab - beat analysts' profit expectations in the latest quarter, helped by the financial health of consumers and businesses, as well as busy trading desks. Still, while CEOs touted the resilience of the world's largest economy, some described cautionary measures companies are taking due to uncertainty around tariffs. U.S. stocks plummeted after President Donald Trump unveiled tariff rates on April 2. They have since recovered, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite hitting all-time highs on June 27 and new records since then. Still, U.S. companies have navigated an uncertain environment. Trump has paused some tariffs while trade partners negotiate a deal, adding more unpredictability to business. Following "Liberation Day," global brokerages saw a greater chance of a recession this year, with JPMorgan calculating a 60% probability. Major firms later trimmed their gloomy outlook. JPMorgan sees the recession probability now at 40%. Many executives said their main concern is how consumers will react if goods prices surge because of tariffs. Rising prices pulled inflation higher in June. On Tuesday, economists viewed the latest Consumer Price Index as evidence that Trump's rising import taxes were passing through to consumers. It increased 0.3% last month, the most in five months, in line with expectations. Yields on the 30-year Treasury hit a six-week high after the inflation data on Tuesday. The S&P 500 stock index ended lower. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, on Tuesday maintained a cautious stance on the U.S. economy, saying "significant risks persist," while recognizing its resilience. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon highlighted the amount of uncertainty going ahead. "Geopolitical concerns have intensified in many regions, but notably in the Middle East, a number of trade agreements have yet to materialize, and that the ultimate impact on growth from higher tariffs is yet unknown," he told analysts on Wednesday. Overall, top executives said they expect the dealmaking pipeline to pick up in the second half of the year, as business owners get more comfortable with the new tariff environment. Most banks reaped gains from an M&A rebound in the second quarter already. "Corporations are looking past tariffs to lead their companies through strategic movements and growth," Morgan Stanley's Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya said.


Reuters
9 minutes ago
- Reuters
Fed's Bostic: Recent data show price pressures may be building
WASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) - Recent data on consumer inflation showed price pressures may be building in the wake of rising import taxes imposed by the Trump administration, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday. "We may be at an inflection point," Bostic said a day after data for June showed prices rising faster than the month before, with particularly large increases for some categories of heavily imported goods. "The headline number moved away from our target, not towards seen the highest increase in prices that we've seen all year."