Job Market Healthy Despite ‘Disappointing' Report, Fed's Hammack Says
'We could see some weakening on the labor side,' Hammack said Friday during an interview on Bloomberg TV. 'And if we see that, it would be something that we might want to respond to,' she said, while adding that she wouldn't want to overreact to one data release.
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If you got your mortgage in the past couple of years, chances are you want to refinance to a lower rate. But whether you should refinance depends on more than just rates. Let's look at where mortgage rates could be headed and what you should consider when thinking about refinancing in 2025 and beyond. Will mortgage rates go down further in 2025? After record lows, hikes to the Federal funds rate drove mortgage rates higher beginning in 2022. In October 2023, mortgage rates peaked above 8 percent, but they have since drifted downward, with economic data sending rates under 7 percent in recent months. Rates sit just below 7 percent on average at the beginning of August 2025. Shop Top Mortgage Rates Your Path to Homeownership A quicker path to financial freedom Personalized rates in minutes Fixed-rate mortgages — the most popular type of home loan — fluctuate with the 10-year Treasury yield. This figure is influenced by many factors, including Fed policy. But since the COVID-19 pandemic, the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year mortgage rate has widened, from an average of 1.7 percentage points pre-pandemic to around 3 percentage points a year ago. This spread has since decreased. Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp., expects mortgage rates to decline modestly by the end of 2025. 'The decline will be in part driven by some narrowing of mortgage rate spread as the Fed's policy outlook becomes clearer,' she says. However, inflation and the uncertainty around President Trump's tariffs, deportations and tax cuts could also help keep rates up, says Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage. Learn more: How are mortgage rates determined? Ready to refinance? Compare mortgage lenders and rates on Bankrate for the best deal on a refinance. Explore refinance rates Will the 'serial refinancer' make a comeback? Many borrowers in recent years have settled for a higher mortgage rate, hoping to refinance in the future. If rates trend lower, some might look to refinance more than once. 'A lot of homeowners with 7.5 percent to 8 percent mortgage rates now may become serial refinancers if mortgage rates continue to drop over an extended period of time,' says Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate. A refi-and-repeat strategy could work for you, but keep in mind: You'll pay closing costs every time you refinance, and you can only do it after a 'seasoning' period, typically at least six months from the time you closed the original loan. The state where you live can impact whether you want to refinance more than once, Cohn says. That's because states levy different fees and taxes when refinancing. 'In states where the costs are high, such as New York state, borrowers are less likely to repeatedly refinance,' Cohn says. When will refinancing save you money? Our mortgage refinance break-even calculator can help you estimate exactly when you'll recoup the costs of refinancing. Here's an example, assuming a borrower with a 30-year fixed-rate loan who decides to do a 30-year refinance after five years. This example also assumes $7,000 in closing costs. Original loan amount $350,000 Current mortgage rate 7.85% Current payment $2,532 Rate after refinancing 6.75% New payment $2,155 Break-even point 19 months Monthly savings $377 Note: These monthly payments include loan principal and interest payments, not taxes, insurance or other fees. Note that closing costs can vary considerably according to your location, your loan amount and the lender you choose. Lower interest rates may translate to higher fees and vice versa. Always compare multiple offers, examining rates and fees, to make sure you get the best deal. Is it ever OK to refinance to a higher rate? The main objective of refinancing is to obtain a lower interest rate and save money. That doesn't mean you can't refinance in times of higher interest rates, however. Some borrowers refinance due to circumstances such as divorce or unexpected bills. For example, if you have a significant amount of equity in your home, you could do a cash-out refinance, which replaces your current mortgage with a new, bigger one. You receive the difference between your previous mortgage balance and your new one as cash, which you can use to pay for medical bills, home repairs and other expenses. A cash-out refinance often costs more than a typical refinance, but they're typically cheaper than other forms of financing, like a credit card or home improvement loan. Another reason to refinance might be to take a lower-cost loan. For instance, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans are a good option for buyers with sub-700 credit scores or little money for down payments, but they come with high fees for mortgage insurance. If you find you now qualify for a conventional loan, it might make sense to refinance for the lower costs. Should you refinance in 2025? Most Americans have mortgage rates below 5 percent, and for them, refinancing holds little appeal right now. But if you can save on your monthly payment or need to pull cash out of equity, you may want to consider refinancing in 2025. However, as rates are expected to continue to fall, you might also consider waiting for a more favorable rate. 'There are so many more factors that you have to take into consideration other than just, 'What's the difference between my rate and what the new rate is?'' Cohn says. Whether you're considering refinancing now or waiting to see how far rates drop, here are resources to help you prepare: Mortgage refinance calculator Best mortgage refinance lenders in 2025 How a cash-out refinance works — and when to do it Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
