Trump's big beautiful police state is here
Just days earlier, Trump's Vice President JD Vance took to X to underline the key component of the legislation: 'Everything else — the CBO [Congressional Budget Office] score, the proper baseline, the minutiae of the Medicaid policy — is immaterial compared to the ICE money and immigration enforcement provisions.'
Indeed, the bill allocates the unprecedentedly ludicrous sum of $175bn to anti-immigration efforts, approximately $30bn of which will go directly to the notorious federal law enforcement agency ICE, known in long form as US Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Another $45bn is earmarked for the construction of new immigration detention centres, which, as the American Immigration Council notes, 'represents a 265 percent annual budget increase to ICE's current detention budget'.
Thanks to these budgetary machinations, ICE now occupies the position of the largest US federal law enforcement agency in history, with more money at its annual disposal than the military of any country in the world apart from the US and China.
Given that ICE agents have as of late made a name for themselves running around in masks and kidnapping people, however, one would be forgiven for seeing this sudden windfall to the agency as something less than, um, 'beautiful'.
Of course, the fanatical increase in ICE funding is no surprise coming from a president whose obsession with the idea of deporting millions of people has not prompted him to contemplate how, precisely, a US economy fundamentally dependent on undocumented labour will continue to function in the absence of said labourers.
Anyway, the arrangement means big bucks for the detention-industrial complex, including detention companies like GEO Group and CoreCivic that are contracted by ICE. A July 4 Washington Post article on ICE's impending 'detention blitz' reported that each company coincidentally happened to donate half a million dollars to Trump's inauguration in January.
The Post article also provided other clues as to how US 'democracy' really works: 'On calls with Wall Street analysts this year, Geo Group executives have primed shareholders for a government contract bonanza that could boost annual revenue by more than 40 percent and profits by more than 60 percent.'
But since the government cannot come right out and say this is all about money, it has to invent other narratives, such as that ICE is protecting the US from 'vicious criminal illegal aliens'. Never mind that the vast majority of those detained by the agency have no criminal record whatsoever.
Among ICE's ever-growing list of victims is a six-year-old Honduran boy with leukaemia, who was arrested in late May at the Los Angeles immigration courthouse where he had come with his family for a scheduled asylum hearing. This month, massive ICE raids on two California farms resulted in more than 360 arrests and the death of 57-year-old Jaime Alanis, a Mexican farmworker who fell from a greenhouse roof during the upheaval.
Nor are all of ICE's detainees undocumented; after all, it is hard to be discerning when you are scrambling to meet detention quotas, and when you are well aware of the fact that you are totally above the law. One of the detainees from the farm raids was 25-year-old security guard George Retes, a US Army veteran, no less, who was pepper-sprayed and then jailed for three days, missing his three-year-old daughter's birthday party. He was released with no explanation.
Now imagine the landscape with an additional $175bn in 'ICE money and immigration enforcement provisions', to borrow Vance's words.
As if manic and arbitrary detention operations and the elimination of due process were not cause enough for concern, ICE is also being utilised as a force for political repression and the criminalisation of dissent. This was seen in the recent spate of abductions of international scholars opposed to the ongoing US-backed Israeli genocide in the Gaza Strip, including 30-year-old Rumeysa Ozturk, a Turkish doctoral student focusing on childhood development at Tufts University in Massachusetts.
En route to an iftar dinner in March, Ozturk was surrounded by masked agents, forced into an unmarked vehicle, and disappeared to an ICE detention centre in Louisiana administered by GEO Group – all because she had co-authored an article for the university newspaper the previous year expressing solidarity with Palestinians.
In a new essay for Vanity Fair, Ozturk reflects on her 45-day detention in appalling conditions that were only made bearable thanks to the solidarity of her fellow female detainees, hailing from an array of nations. Ozturk writes: 'One time, an officer came and took away all the cookie boxes, claiming we would use them to make weapons. Another time, we were shocked to witness an officer physically push two women in the kitchen.'
When Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, recently had the nerve to refer to ICE as 'Trump's modern-day Gestapo', the US Department of Homeland Security threw a tantrum over his 'dangerous rhetoric', and issued a press release asserting that, 'while politicians like Gov. Walz fight to protect criminal illegal aliens, ICE officers will continue risking their lives to arrest murderers, kidnappers, and pedophiles'.
This was itself 'dangerous rhetoric', no doubt, coming from the folks who are kidnapping doctoral students, six-year-old leukaemia patients, army veterans, and so on.
Although undocumented workers might be the most immediate and visible victims of the super-funding of ICE stipulated by the One Big Beautiful Bill, the consequences for US society as a whole cannot be understated. At the end of the day, a rogue agency snatching people off the street while entire communities live in fear does not denote a 'land of the free', particularly when the president appears to view anyone who disagrees with him as potentially eligible for criminal punishment.
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, has observed that 'you don't build the mass deportation machine without building the police state first'. And if we consider the Cambridge dictionary entry for police state – 'a country in which the government uses the police to severely limit people's freedom' – it seems the US already fits the definition to a big beautiful T.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.
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(2) US Tariffs and the Middle East The Middle East appeared to have got off relatively easily in the first round of tariff announcements. The Gulf states (and Egypt, Morocco and Lebanon) suffered only the standard 10% rate. This outcome reflects the curious methodology used—basing decisions on the bilateral trade deficit in goods, while ignoring services. Since the Gulf states no longer export significant volumes of oil, gas, or petrochemicals—their main exports—to the US, but still import vehicles, machinery, arms, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and other products from the US, the US now has a trade surplus with them. Other MENA countries face higher tariff levels: Syria 41%, Iraq 39%, Libya 31%, Algeria 30%, Tunisia 28%, Jordan 20%, and Israel 17%. However, since the main exports of most of these countries are hydrocarbons—which are currently exempt—and because North African countries primarily trade with Europe, the direct impact remains relatively limited. The main exceptions are Israel, for which the US accounted for 29% of exports in 2023, and Jordan (21%). (3) In any case, if these elevated tariff levels are reimposed, they would pose an additional obstacle to MENA countries' efforts to diversify their economies. The GCC states are affected by the sectoral tariffs on aluminium and steel, which are currently at 25 percent. These were the leading exports of the UAE and Bahrain to the US. But, as large and low-cost producers, they should be able to find markets elsewhere as required. Energy Market Impacts The energy market changes most directly impact countries in the Middle East and North Africa. However, these countries currently export relatively little oil, gas or petrochemicals to the United States. This is not due to tariffs — oil and gas imports into the US are generally exempt from tariffs — but because the US has become largely self-sufficient in energy production thanks to its domestic shale oil and gas boom. As a result, US imports now mainly consist of heavy crude oils, which are blended with lighter domestic crude in refineries. These heavy crudes come primarily from Canada, Mexico and, depending on sanctions, Venezuela. Trade measures against its neighbours, notably the previously proposed 10 percent tariff on Canadian oil, would probably result in some diversion of oil from Canada and the diversion of most Mexican oil. Crude from Brazil and from the Middle East would be possible replacements, although the Middle Eastern countries export little of these very heavy crudes. Saudi Arabian Heavy, Iraq's Basrah Heavy, and perhaps a separate blend of Kuwait's heavy Lower Fars crude, would be the likely alternatives. The Chinese market is now effectively closed to US products due to the very high retaliatory tariffs. This will allow Middle Eastern exporters to gain market share in China for crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The main problem for China may be in obtaining sufficient supplies of petrochemical feedstocks, notably ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), where the US had become a very important supplier. Economic and policy uncertainty, the loss of the Chinese market, and higher costs because of tariffs on key materials, will make it harder for new US LNG export plants to secure financing. Costs of construction for liquefied natural gas plants have risen, with Woodside's Louisiana LNG project, for example, assessing the tariff impact. (4) This is positive for Middle Eastern LNG and other gas exporters (notably, Qatar, as well as the UAE, Oman and Algeria), although US LNG plants currently under-construction are still likely to lead to a substantial over-supply in the later part of this decade. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) signed three LNG supply deals with Chinese companies–namely, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, ZhenHua Oil and ENN (5) – in April for a total of about 2.3 million tonnes per year and terms ranging from 5 to 15 years. Qatar had already secured several Chinese equity investments and sales contracts for its major in-progress LNG expansion. (6) Still, the tariffs and the resulting economic uncertainty have caused a sharp drop in oil prices. Brent crude, the main international benchmark, fell from $74.95 per barrel on April 2 to $65.58 on April 4, followed by only a modest recovery. Asian LNG prices also declined by about 12%. By July 2025 (up to the 13th), prices showed mixed trends: starting at $67.63 on July 1, rising to $71.95 on July 7 (the latest spot price), then easing to $69.11 by July 13 based on futures settlements. This pattern suggests a slight recovery since April's lows, tempered by some downward pressure in recent days. Energy-importing MENA states, notably Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco, will benefit from lower oil and gas prices. But they will suffer from a generalised economic slowdown, from the cut-off of US aid in some cases (particularly Jordan's), and from any reduction in remittances, tourism and investment inflows from their oil-exporting neighbours. OPEC+ Strategy The fall in oil prices was further intensified by OPEC+'s decision to raise output ceilings more than expected starting in May. On 3 April, just hours after the tariff announcement, the alliance increased its production ceiling by 411,000 bpd—three times its usual monthly increments. Since then, OPEC+ has steadily rolled back production cuts with additional increases: output remained flat in April despite the quota hike, further adjustments were confirmed for June (including Kazakhstan), and on 5 July, the group announced a larger-than-anticipated boost of 548,000 bpd for August 2025 to speed up supply restoration. OPEC+ is on track to fully reverse voluntary cuts by September 2025, with further phased increases planned amid ongoing debates about market demand and price effects. This stems from a complex combination of various motives: the group took advantage of exhortations from the White House to raise production, but only as long as doing so aligned with its own assessments of its interests. The increase signals to Iraq and Kazakhstan, two members who have been producing well above their assigned ceilings, that they need to improve compliance and, ideally, make 'compensation cuts' to offset past over-production. As fields in Canada and Norway come into maintenance season, there may be room in the market for some additional oil, and after that, the Northern Hemisphere summer period usually brings greater oil consumption for travel, as well as increased air-conditioning in countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. OPEC+ has also seized an opportune moment to target U.S. shale. Tariffs—especially those on steel, which is essential for drill pipe, well casings, tubulars, and pipelines—will increase costs for shale development. Alongside lower oil prices, greater economic uncertainty, the increasing maturity of shale resources, and industry consolidation, this will significantly slow growth in U.S. shale output. The U. Energy Information Administration projects that US oil production will peak at 14 million bpd in 2027, up from 13.7 million bpd in 2025, before flattening out. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency's April report lowered its estimate for US oil production growth this year from 640,000 bpd to 490,000 bpd, and expects growth to slow further to 280,000 bpd next year. Slower US production expansion should partially cushion the impact of lower global demand, and help OPEC+ to start regaining market share. Higher output will ease the hit to revenues experienced by OPEC+ members, especially those with additional voluntary cuts (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Algeria). MENA countries not in OPEC+ or not bound by quotas, including Qatar, Libya and Iran, will simply experience lower oil prices, and lower prices for oil-linked LNG or pipeline gas contracts. Renewable and nuclear energy The very high tariffs on Chinese imports have made it virtually unviable to sell Chinese solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric cars in the US. To prevent tariff circumvention, the US imposed similarly high tariffs on alternative Asian manufacturers—including Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Thailand—starting in June 2025. These rates reach up to 3,521% on solar cells and modules, targeting unfair subsidies and efforts to bypass duties on Chinese goods. As a result, the cost of renewable energy installations in the U.S. has increased substantially. Since these countries supply over 75% of U.S. solar imports, disrupted supply chains are pushing solar module prices up by an estimated 20–30%. This price surge risks slowing the deployment of clean energy projects critical to meeting climate goals, such as achieving 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, and may lead to greater short-term reliance on fossil fuels. Recent analyses from June 2025 estimate that solar panel costs have risen by 3–4 cents per watt, along with increases in balance-of-system expenses. These added costs are placing significant pressure on utility-scale renewable projects just as demand for clean energy is surging. This cost pressure is compounded by other administration actions seen as anti-renewables, such as Interior Secretary Doug Burgum's order for Norwegian company Equinor to halt construction of the fully permitted Empire Wind I offshore project in New York. Equinor had already invested $2 billion in the project before the abrupt halt. Trump, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, Vice President JD Vance and presidential ally Elon Musk have all spoken in favour of nuclear power. However, Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is proposing to cut more than half the staff of the Loan Programs Office (LPO), a relatively low-profile but critical unit within the Department of Energy. The LPO provides essential financing support that is crucial for building new nuclear plants in the U.S. Reduced output of renewables and nuclear power will support US gas consumption in both the short and long term, reducing gas availability for LNG exports, a further problem for the industry along with those mentioned above. The restrictions on Chinese imports mean Chinese renewable manufacturers will have to find other markets. Europe will be wary of 'dumping' and may negotiate or impose restrictions of its own. That will, in turn, mean a strong supply of very low-cost renewable systems for other markets. That is favourable for MENA countries who are developing large solar, wind, battery and hydrogen projects, most notably Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Egypt and Morocco, as well as emerging renewable users such as Iraq, Tunisia and Algeria. These developments will help limit greenhouse gas emissions, meet rapidly growing electricity needs, save oil consumption and lower overall system costs. However, MENA countries trying to develop their own renewable manufacturing sectors will face a double challenge: US tariffs, which make it difficult to export to the American market successfully, and the increased flow of low-priced Chinese imports. Jordan has already launched an anti-dumping investigation into photovoltaic cells from China, following a complaint by local manufacturer Philadelphia Solar. (7) Macroeconomic Impacts The most serious effects of the tariffs, however, are macroeconomic. They are almost certain to raise US inflation substantially, which will require the US Federal Reserve to decide between cutting interest rates to support the economy or keeping them elevated to contain inflation. Trump is likely to exert political pressure for lower rates. Nevertheless, the US economy will slow, and that will reduce oil demand. The GDP impact will be most pronounced in the US, with an estimated reduction in growth of 0.56%. Close trade partner Canada faces a potential fall of 2.07%. China's loss is relatively muted at 0.22%, while the UK and EU will actually gain to a small extent. Overall, the global economy excluding the US will lose only marginally. (8) The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its overall economic forecasts due to tariffs and the broader negative impact of increased uncertainty. It now projects global growth of 2.8% this year, down from 3.3%, with a rebound to 3% next year—still below the long-run average of 3.7%. The IMF's forecast for the Middle East-Central Asia region has been cut by slightly more than the global and emerging markets averages, dropping from 3.6% to 3% this year, and from 3.9% to 3.4% next year. For Saudi Arabia, which the Fund reports on specifically, growth estimates have declined from 3.3% this year and 4.1% in 2026 to 3% and 3.7%, respectively—suggesting the Kingdom may fare somewhat better than the regional average. The International Energy Agency predicts these negative impacts, and the general effects of higher uncertainty, will reduce global oil demand growth from its previous estimate of 1.03 million bpd to 730,000 bpd. (9) However, a wider breakdown of trade relations, if other countries impose protective tariffs, could mean substantially lower growth. Aside from China, several large and fast-growing Asian countries with export-dependent economies, such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines, were targeted with the highest tariff rates. Their economies are often closely coupled with China's, and would therefore be doubly affected by a slowdown there. A tariff-induced debt or currency crisis in a major emerging economy could have ripple effects elsewhere, particularly as the current leaderless global financial architecture may find it hard to organise a rescue. This could repeat in some form the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, accompanied by OPEC quota increases, which saw Brent crude prices fall to $10 per barrel. An even more complicated and speculative area is the position of the US dollar and its financial sector and debt market. Unusually, in the latest shock, US Treasury bond yields rose while stock prices fell, in inversion of the usual flight to perceived low-risk assets. Trump himself, and various figures in his administration, have given mixed messages on whether they want the dollar to be strong or weak, and on maintaining the dollar as the world's reserve currency and main currency for payments. The Trump administration has nonetheless strongly encouraged Gulf investment into the US, with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE making some significant commitments in LNG projects. These, along with promised large arms purchases, may be key negotiating points in any discussions over exempting GCC countries from future tariffs. The dollar peg has generally provided Gulf countries with macroeconomic stability. Since most of their exports, debt, and a large portion of sovereign wealth holdings are denominated in dollars, the peg has historically offered predictability. However, tariffs and broad uncertainty over US policy may encourage a gradual shift away from dollar holdings—initially toward the euro, and potentially later to the Chinese yuan or other currencies. The acceleration of deal settlements in alternative currencies, driven by sanctions on Russia, has already led to increased use of the UAE dirham, the Russian rouble and the Chinese yuan, as well as attempts to use the Indian rupee. Saudi Arabia has at times expressed openness to settling some of its oil trade in yuan, and possibly in euros or Japanese yen. (10) These shifts are likely to continue even as oil pricing remains dollar-denominated, due to familiarity, convenience, existing contracts, and the dominance of US-based futures exchanges. Future Outlook Uncertainty has persisted since the announcement on 9 April of the 90-day pause in trade tariffs. The Trump administration has given mixed and conflicting updates on the status of its trade negotiations with China. At the same time, several key political and macroeconomic developments could profoundly impact the energy sector. Attempts to broker a Russia-Ukraine truce have stalled amid ongoing heavy airstrikes and mutual accusations of violations. Peace talks remain far apart, as Russia demands territorial concessions and limits on Ukraine's military capabilities, while the US has resumed arms supplies after a brief pause. Meanwhile, talks with Iran over its nuclear programme and oil-related sanctions remain complicated. Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities in June have escalated tensions. Iran insists on guarantees against further attacks before resuming negotiations and rejects US claims that it has requested talks. Meanwhile, fresh US sanctions targeting Iran's oil trade and Hezbollah funding were imposed in July. On the oil supply front, the 5 May meeting of the eight OPEC+ countries adhering to voluntary production limits resulted in an accelerated output increase of 411,000 bpd for June. Subsequent decisions included a 5 July agreement to add 548,000 bpd in August, with plans to fully unwind production cuts by September. However, some members have expressed interest in pausing further increases after September due to concerns over price pressures. In monetary policy, the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5% during its 6-7 May meeting, citing risks of higher inflation and unemployment. Chair Jerome Powell noted that tariffs could indirectly weaken the economy, potentially reducing energy demand. Finally, Trump's 13-16 May visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE resulted in over $2 trillion in deals covering energy, defence, artificial intelligence and infrastructure. Notably, the UAE pledged $440 billion and Saudi Arabia $5 billion in US energy investments aimed at boosting LNG production and offsetting drilling slowdowns. These deals strengthen strategic alliances with significant implications for global oil supply and energy technology. Partial relaxations and pauses in tariffs occurred throughout June 2025. Notably, the tariff on Chinese goods was reduced from 145% to 30% as part of a 90-day temporary deal starting 14 May, with China reciprocally lowering its tariffs on US goods to 10%. Implementation of country-specific reciprocal tariffs was also delayed until 1 August (initially set for 8 July). Additionally, amendments provided exceptions for certain products, such as UK aerospace goods, effective 23 June. These adjustments contributed to a market rally, with the S&P 500 reaching record highs by late June, and helped boost macroeconomic sentiment. However, they were framed as negotiated pauses rather than full reversals, accompanied by apparent concessions from trade partners, including mutual tariff reductions and pledges on issues like border enforcement. Nevertheless, much of the economic damage had already been done by the April shock to confidence, which caused a stock market crash and led to downgraded GDP growth projections (for example, the Federal Reserve revised its 2025 growth forecast down to 1.4%). Volatile economic policymaking continues amid ongoing threats, such as new Canada-specific tariffs threatened on 27 June, court battles with stays keeping disputed tariffs in effect pending appeals due 31 July, and frequent announcements via social media.
