Is solar in a bubble and trouble zone? Nischal Maheshwari explains
, Market Expert, says
solar equipment manufacturing
faces margin pressure due to overcapacity in India, with module production already exceeding demand while cell capacity is expected to follow suit by 2027. The entry of major players like
Reliance
and Adani into the market will intensify competition. Unsustainable valuations are driven by substantial subsidies, both domestically and internationally.
What will it take for markets to come out of this state of limbo?
Nischal Maheshwari
: There are two important pieces of news around the corner. One is the Trump tariffs; it is very important and the entire market is waiting for that. We have to see whether we will get a normalised tariff or an extra 10% along with BRICS. The other important thing is earnings but that is going to be lacklustre in the current quarter.
So, for an investor, one would say this is consolidation, but for a trader you would say this market is in a no-trade zone right now?
Nischal Maheshwari:
I do not have much of a view on the trading side. But from an investment point of view, yes, there is a consolidation in the market.
The one business which has done exceedingly well right now is solar and it has become more like a fashion word and a buzz word. If you are in India and if you are not in the solar business, that means there is something wrong with you. In 2008 the buzzword was infrastructure and in 2020, it was IT. Is solar in a bubble and trouble level?
Nischal Maheshwari:
I agree with you. In solar, there is no real moat in the business as far as solar equipment manufacturing is concerned. Largely, there is a cell and a silicon wafer. There are very few companies across the world who manufacture the silicon wafer and most of the other companies are either manufacturing cells and thereafter, the modules.
So, module capacity in India in the current year has already exceeded demand and the cell capacity will exceed the demand in '27. So, we are more or less there and we have still not seen Reliance and Adani selling in the open market. Reliance has started selling in the current quarter itself. So, we are going to start seeing the pressure on the margins as far as solar is concerned. I do not understand how these kinds of valuations get justified as far as solar equipment manufacturers are concerned. They have a huge subsidy both in the domestic as well as in the international market, especially the US. So, these kinds of valuations are unsustainable.
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