What Happened to BlackBerry (BB) Stock This Year?

Globe and Mail

2 days ago

Key Points
BlackBerry stock has gone nowhere over the past year.
The company is relying on its QNX and SecuSmart divisions to drive its near-term growth.
The stock is not as cheap as it appears to be given its growth potential.
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BlackBerry (NYSE: BB) was once synonymous with smartphones, but it lost that booming market to the Apple iPhone and Android-powered devices. It eventually stopped producing phones entirely and reinvented itself as an Internet of Things (IoT) and cybersecurity software provider, but it's still struggling to expand in those saturated markets.
The stock has traded flat in 2025 as the S&P 500 is up 8% year to date. Let's see why BlackBerry is trailing the broad market this year and where it might be headed over the next 12 months.
BlackBerry's two core growth engines
Most of BlackBerry's recent growth has been driven by two acquisitions. First, it acquired QNX, the world's most popular embedded operating system (OS) for vehicles, back in 2010. That acquisition helped it profit from the secular growth of the connected and driverless vehicle markets. In 2023, it launched BlackBerry IVY, a cloud-based connected-vehicle platform which was built on QNX and co-developed with Amazon Web Services.
BlackBerry rebranded its entire IoT business as QNX earlier this year, and it expects more automotive design wins to drive its results long-term. In fiscal 2025 (which ended this past February), the QNX segment's revenue rose 10% year over year and accounted for 44% of BlackBerry's top line.
Second, BlackBerry acquired the cybersecurity company Cylance in 2019 for $1.4 billion. That acquisition was aimed at strengthening its cybersecurity software business, but it faced stiff competition from bigger and faster-growing competitors like Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike. In February, it sold Cylance's endpoint security assets to Arctic Wolf for $160 million in cash and equity.
In fiscal 2025, BlackBerry's revenue from its secured communications segment (which houses its cybersecurity services, SecuSmart secure messaging and call services, and other security tools) dipped 4% year over year but still accounted for 51% of its top line.
BlackBerry previously leveraged its patents to generate high-margin royalties and licensing fees, but it sold most of that portfolio over the past three years to raise fresh cash. As a result, its licensing revenue plunged 90% in fiscal 2025 and only accounted for 5% of its top line.
What will happen to BlackBerry over the next year?
BlackBerry expects to generate $508 million to $538 million in revenue in fiscal 2026, which would represent a 2% decline at the midpoint. This includes a 10% to 14% hit to secured communications revenue stemming from the Cylance sale, though the company continues to gain more SecuSmart customers. For QNX, management is guiding for 10% full-year growth at the midpoint of its $250 million to $270 million range.
On the bottom line, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) should range between a 14% decline and 3% growth. For fiscal 2027, however, analysts expect revenue and adjusted EBITDA to rise 9% and 18%, respectively, as QNX and SecuSmart gain new customers.
Is it the right time to buy BlackBerry stock?
With an enterprise value of $2.2 billion, BlackBerry isn't much of a bargain at four times this year's sales. It also trades at 27 times forward adjusted EBITDA. Insiders have been net sellers of the stock over the past 12 months too.
If BlackBerry manages to meet analysts' expectations and still trades at 27 times its forward adjusted EBITDA by the beginning of fiscal 2027, its shares could rise 16% over the next 12 months. If either of its two main segments stumble, however, its valuation multiples would likely contract, driving the stock lower. That's why I don't think BlackBerry stock is worth buying yet.
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