The presidential race is (finally) hotting up as one serious contender throws her hat in ring

Irish Times

a day ago

Story of the Week
This year's race for the keys to Áras an Uachtaráin has really ramped up in recent days.
There is fevered speculation on who will run and one serious contender –
Catherine Connolly – has announced she will formally launch her bid next week.
There was surprise at the start of the week when
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald
– who had previously said she would not be her party's candidate - refused to rule herself when quizzed about it again by reporters.
However, Sinn Féin is still deliberating on its approach to the
presidential election
and whether it will put its own candidate forward or support someone from outside the party, perhaps joining with other left-wing parties to do so.
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Ms McDonald said it will probably be the end of July and into August when Sinn Féin will have 'a clearer picture of what we are doing'.
Fine Gael meanwhile,
has opened its nominations process.
One of the party's MEP's, Seán Kelly – who had been mulling over a presidential bid - confirmed later that he will not seek his party's nomination.
He said it was a crucial time for European politics and he wanted to influence affairs in Brussels on behalf of Ireland.
The move leaves former European commissioner
Mairead McGuinness
as the only widely tipped potential candidate from the party to contest the election to succeed President
Michael D Higgins
, which is likely to take place in late October or early November.
While Fine Gael fielding a candidate - for an office the party has never held – seems nailed on, things are much less certain with Fianna Fáil.
The party has been sounding out potential candidates for the presidency, but the party will not necessarily nominate anyone,
Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said.
On Friday, the Galway City Tribune, reported that Ms Connolly intends to launch her presidential campaign next week.
The Galway West TD believes she has enough support in the Oireachtas to get on the ballot paper for the election due to take place in October or early November.
Ms Connolly said: 'Yes, my mind is made up to run.
'I've support from across the spectrum, including the Social Democrats, People Before Profit and Solidarity, as well as a number of senators and others. Labour and Sinn Féin are still completing their own internal processes which I fully respect.'
Candidates need the signatures of 20 Oireachtas members or the backing of four councils to get on the ballot paper.
Connolly is the first established politician with a clear path to getting on the ballot paper to throw their hat in the ring.
Expect the presidential race to hot up in the days and weeks ahead.
Bust-up
The trade dispute that has rumbled on since US President
Donald Trump
announced his 'Liberation Tariffs' escalated for some countries this week even as there are hopes there could be a deal in the offing with the European Union. For instance, Trump plans to slap 50 per cent tariffs on Brazillian imports partly in retaliation for what he
sees as a 'witch hunt'
against his political ally, former president
Jair Bolsonaro
, who is facing trial for attempting a coup.
The US president is also now threatening 25 per cent tariffs on Japan and South Korea
. Cliff Taylor has written a Q&A
on what it might all mean for Ireland whose trade relationship with the US comes under the remit of the wider EU.
There was a belief as the week went on
that the EU and US are on the brink of a deal that would stop the transatlantic dispute becoming a full blown trade war. However, diplomatic sources have warned that Mr Trump could decide to reopen large aspects of the negotiations unexpectedly. And there is concern about the possibility Mr Trump could introduce separate tariffs on pharmaceutical products – a big Irish export to the US - at a later date. There could be some way to go in the row yet.
That's all very well but does any of this affect me?
The budget may be three months away yet but one thing senior Government figures have made very clear is that it will not be a giveaway of the kind we may have become accustomed to in recent years.
The so-called once-off measures like electricity bill credits are highly unlikely to feature and as
Political Editor Pat Leahy reported this week
budget Ministers
Jack Chambers
and
Paschal Donohoe
are said to be resisting pressure from colleagues for major spending increases on capital and current budgets.
Much hinges on whether or not there is a trade deal between the EU and US but regardless of that there is a move on within Government to lower expectations ahead of budget day. Tax cuts and social welfare increases have not been ruled out but the message to the public has been clear for months – the largesse of recent budgets will not be repeated.
Banana Skin
The proposed
Occupied Territories Bill
to ban the import of goods into Ireland from illegal Israeli settlements on Palestinian land has the potential to be very tricky indeed.
While the amount of trade is minimal, there is a view that passing the legislation would send out a strong message that Ireland does not support how Israel is treating the Palestinian people in the West Bank nor the horror of what his happening in Gaza.
While the Opposition argues the Government Bill does not go far enough – they want a ban on services too – it remains the case that it would be the first law of its kind in the EU. However, introducing it has its risks and implementing its measures may not be straightforward.
As Leahy reported on Thursday
US legal experts have warned
that the Bill would pose 'serious risks' to
American
companies operating in Ireland because US laws prohibit compliance with such legislation.
Harry McGee separately reports on
practical issues that could arise
if the law is implemented and how the Oireachtas Foreign Affairs Committee has heard that goods from the illegal settlements could still legally enter the State if they were first imported to another
EU
country. The debate on the proposed Bill will continue at that committee.
Meanwhile, Ellen Coyne has been reporting this week on how there have problems that has arisen with some tangible support
Ireland has committed to giving to Palestinian children.
She revealed that seriously ill children who have already been selected for medical evacuation from Gaza are not expected to be flown out of the Middle East until September. Concerns that these children could be killed in the ongoing war before they are
evacuated were raised in the Dáil.
Winners and Losers
European Commission President
Ursula von der Leyen
is a divisive figure – not least due to her stance on the war in Gaza – but she survived a motion of no confidence brought by far-right MEPs in the European Parliament over the pandemic-era 'Pfizergate' controversy. She was a winner of sorts then, though as our
Europe Correspondent Jack Power writes
many MEPs from the centre and centre-left groupings were giving Von der Leyen a dig-out through gritted teeth.
This week's losers are whoever put an
effigy of migrants in a boat
on top of a loyalist bonfire in Moygashel, Co Tyrone. The Police Service of Northern Ireland are investigating it as a 'hate incident'.
The Big Read
Left-wing presidential hopeful Catherine Connolly will be profiled in Saturday's paper.
Hear Here
Could Mary Lou McDonald be about to enter the presidential race? Ellen Coyne and Harry McGee join Pat Leahy to look back on the week in politics:
Could Mary Lou McDonald be about to enter the presidential race?
Listen |
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