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Business Standard
9 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Daunted by trade war, US firms in China report record-low investment plans
American companies in China are reporting record-low new investment plans for this year and declining confidence in their profitability, with uncertainty in US-China relations and President Donald Trump's tariffs their top concerns, according to a new survey. The companies are also challenged by China's slowing economy, where weak domestic demand and overcapacity in local industries are eroding profitability for the Americans. Businesses in China are less profitable now than they were years ago, but risks, including reputational risk, regulatory risk, and political risk, are increasing, said Sean Stein, the president of the US-China Business Council, a Washington-based group that represents American companies doing business in China, including major multinationals. The survey, conducted between March and May and drawing from 130 member companies, was released Wednesday. It came as the two countries clash over tariffs and non-tariff measures, including export controls on critical products such as rare-earth magnets and advanced computer chips. Following high-level talks in Geneva and London, US and Chinese officials agreed to pull back from sky-high tariffs and restrictions on exports, but uncertainty persists as the two sides are yet to hammer out a more permanent trade deal. Kyle Sullivan, vice president of business advisory services at the USCBC, said more than half of the companies in the survey indicated they do not have new investment plans in China at all this year. "That's a record high, Sullivan said, noting that it is a new development that we have not observed in previous surveys. Around 40 per cent of companies reported negative effects from US export control measures, with many experiencing lost sales, severed customer relationships, and reputational damage from being unreliable suppliers, according to the survey. Citing national security, the US government has banned exports to China of high-tech products, such as the most advanced chips, which could help boost China's military capabilities. Stein argued that export controls must be very carefully targeted, because businesses from Europe or Japan, or local businesses in China would immediately fill the void left by American companies. Silicon Valley chipmaker Nvidia won approval from the Trump administration to resume sales to China of its advanced H20 chips used to develop artificial intelligence, its CEO Jensen Huang announced on Monday, though the company's most powerful chips remain under US export control rules. While 82% of US companies reported profits in 2024, fewer than half are optimistic about the future in China, reflecting concerns over tariffs, deflation, and policy uncertainty, according to the survey. Also, a record high number of American businesses plan to relocate their business operations outside of China, Sullivan said, as 27% of the members indicated so, up from 19 per cent the year before. In a departure from past surveys, concerns over China's regulatory environment, including risks of intellectual property misuse and lack of market access, didn't make it to the top five concerns this year. That's likely a first, and not for a good reason, Stein said. It is not because things got dramatically better on the Chinese side, but the new challenges, often coming from the US, are now posing as much of a challenge, Stein said. Almost all the American companies said they cannot remain globally competitive without their Chinese operations. A survey from the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China in May found that European companies were cutting costs and scaling back investment plans in China as its economy slows and fierce competition drives down prices.
Time of India
9 minutes ago
- Time of India
India unfazed by Trump's secondary tariff threats: Hardeep Singh Puri on threat to Russian oil imports
Hardeep Singh Puri stated India is not worried about potential US sanctions. He believes oil markets are well-supplied and prices will decrease. India is diversifying its oil sources, including purchases from Argentina and Brazil. This comes after the US threatened tariffs on Russian imports and countries trading with Russia if a peace deal isn't reached. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Petroleum and Natural Gas of India Hardeep Singh Puri on Thursday said India is unfazed by US sanction threats as oil markets remain well supplied, adding that the prices will come said that India is currently buying crude oil from Argentina and will buy more from Brazil. The comments came while answering a question on US President Donald Trump's secondary tariffs threat at Urja Varta 2025 Trump, on Tuesday, had announced 100 per cent tariffs on Russian imports, including oil. Additionally, the US president also introduced equivalent secondary tariffs on countries importing from Russia, including on India. He wanred that the tariffs would be imposed if Russia did not arrive at a peace deal within 50 days. When asked about the secondary tariff warning, Puri said at the Thursday event that right now he does not have 'any pressure' in his oil refiners have been getting Russian oil at discounted rates since 2022, while while the West has moved away from Russia by imposing sanctions. Russia currently accounts for a third of India's oil imports, compared to less than 1 per cent before the war.A secondary tariff would affect Indian refiners with them having to switch to western countries for oil for a higher cost.
Time of India
26 minutes ago
- Time of India
Cheap and deadly: How Ukraine's drones are blunting Russian advantages in troops, tanks, and artillery
Drones , drones, drones. Only drones. A lot of drones." A weary Ukrainian platoon commander speaks to the transformed nature of modern warfare as he's medically evacuated from the front lines. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Kamikaze drones . Surveillance drones . Bomber drones. Drones that kill other drones. These machines swarm the skies in vast numbers. They're cheap, they're deadly and they're among the main reasons Ukraine believes it can hold out against advancing Russian forces this year and even beyond, according to a dozen Ukrainian commanders, officials and arms manufacturers involved in Kyiv's defence. Ukrainian soldiers describe the drone-infested corridor covering about 10 km either side of the line of contact as the "kill zone" because remotely piloted unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) deployed by both sides can swiftly spot and neutralise targets. Live Events The war 's evolution into the most drone-intensive conflict ever seen has eaten away at Russia 's ability to exploit its traditional advantages in troop numbers, artillery and tanks, according to two Ukrainian battlefield commanders interviewed. Any large vehicle operating near the front is now an obvious target, meaning Russian forces can no longer make the kind of rapid advances they did in 2022 with columns of armoured vehicles, according to the commanders as well as the founder of OCHI, a system which centralizes video feeds from over 15,000 Ukrainian military drone crews on the front lines. "The enemy sees you completely," OCHI's Oleksandr Dmitriev added. "No matter where you go or what you are driving." Russia has consequently adapted its tactics, the Ukrainian battlefield commanders said; its forces now typically attack in small groups of five or six - on foot or on motorbikes or quad bikes - in an attempt expose Ukrainian positions by drawing their fire and then launching drone strikes at them, they added. Russia's defence ministry didn't respond to a request for comment on this article. Despite the changes in warfare, Russian forces retain the ascendancy and are making slow but steady advances in the east and north of Ukraine. Russia has also caught up in UAV technology after falling behind early in the war, according to military analysts, and like its enemy is churning out drones domestically at a rate of millions a year. Meanwhile, European leaders are trying to parse President Donald Trump's announcement this week that America would supply arms to Ukraine via NATO, with Europe picking up the bill. Many details remain unclear, including the types and quantity of weapons, how quickly they would be sent and precisely how they would be paid for, U.S. and European officials said this week. The White House didn't respond to queries on the supply plan. Spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the war had gone on too long and Trump wanted to end the killing, and so is selling U.S. arms to NATO for Ukraine and threatening hefty sanctions on Russia. The people interviewed for this article, who were speaking before Trump's weapons announcement, said they believed Ukraine could fight on and resist Russia even if no more U.S. aid was forthcoming, though they didn't give precise timelines. Many cited the primacy of drones as having levelled the field to some degree and made Ukraine more self-sufficient, and also pointed to growing military supplies from European allies. "We can hold out for months," said Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's arms expert and strategic adviser, when asked about what would happen if U.S. weapons supplies ceased. "In 2023 or 2024, it would have been a lot worse - we would be talking about days or weeks." Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka, who has made numerous visits to the front lines, said Ukraine's focus was to sap the strength of Russian attacks, adding that Kyiv didn't currently have the capability to launch offensives of its own. He said Ukraine would likely struggle in a long war of attrition due to its manpower shortages and Russia's superior resources. Although drones have changed the battlefield, he cautioned against overstating their ability to make up for an absence of artillery and mortars. "To deliver the amount of damage that an artillery shell does to a target, you would need to launch tens of drones," he added. "Drones can fill in the gaps to some extent and give you some breathing space, but they are not a substitute for artillery." DESTRUCTION RAINS FROM ABOVE Drones are demons, at least for those in the kill zone that straddles the 1,000 km line of contact. Reconnaissance UAVs from both sides - resembling shrunken airplanes, made of plastic or styrofoam and equipped with sophisticated cameras - can spot enemies from several kilometres away. They hover over the front lines, relaying back what they see in real time. They find targets for the fleets of bomber drones - often hexacopters the size of coffee tables that can drop precision grenades with 3D-printed tailfins - as well as kamikaze drones, some with RPG warheads strapped on to pierce armour, which can fly into soldiers, tanks and weapons systems. The platoon commander being evacuated from the front, a 35-year-old called Ivan who goes by the call sign "Atom", said soldiers on both sides now saw UAVs as the biggest threat to their lives, replacing shells, mines and enemy fighters which were the primary perils earlier in the war. A medic with him on the bus, 34-year-old Olga Kozum, concurred: Most of the battlefield injuries she and her colleagues treat are caused by UAVs, she said. According to internal Ukrainian estimates seen by Reuters, drones accounted for 69% of strikes on Russian troops and 75% of strikes on vehicles and equipment in 2024. About 18% of strikes on Russian infantry and 15% of strikes on vehicles and equipment were conducted with artillery, and even less with mortars, according to the same estimates. The wartime UAV arms race has spawned many innovations; both sides are deploying short-range, fibre-optic drones that cannot be electronically jammed, as well as "interceptors" that hunt down and destroy enemy reconnaissance and attack drones. Kyiv's planned production this year of 30,000 long-range UAVs, designed to attack targets deep inside Russia such as arms depots and energy facilities, gives Ukraine an increased offensive threat, according to Vadym Sukharevskyi, commander of the country's drone forces until early June. The average cost of a long-range strike drone ranges from $50,000 to $300,000, about 10 times less than a missile of similar range, although a drone's warhead is smaller, Sukharevskyi said in an interview while still in the post. "This is our asymmetrical answer," he said, adding that Ukraine started developing such drones "precisely because we lack missiles". Kamyshin, President Zelenskiy's adviser, added: "You can't win a big war if you are only defending." Long-range drone strikes are "one of the main cards Ukraine can play against Russia right now". WANTED: U.S. PATRIOTS AND INTEL Ukraine's military-industrial base is expanding rapidly, and now accounts for around 40% of the weapons and equipment used, including drones, according to Zelenskiy, who on Wednesday set out a target to reach 50% in six months. Kyiv has also sought to diversify its supplies and its European allies are providing growing amounts of munitions, potentially making the country more resilient to geopolitical shocks. The Kiel Institute, a German-based economic research group, estimated in a report last month that Europe had surpassed the U.S. in total military aid provided over the course of the war for the first time since June 2022, reaching 72 billion euros compared with 65 billion euros from Washington. The institute said aid flows to Ukraine shifted significantly in March and April as no new U.S. aid was allocated and European countries upped support. While the U.S. has been - and remains - the largest sole supplier of artillery shells to Ukraine during the war, Europe is expanding capacity and has purchased hundreds of thousands of munitions from within and outside the continent. Of around 420,000 artillery shells received by Ukraine from the start of this year until around mid-May, only 160,000 were from the United States, according to a European security source who requested anonymity to discuss confidential matters. Kamyshin said Ukraine made around 2.4 million of its own shells in 2024, although these were mostly for mortars, which are shorter range. Ukraine is nonetheless particularly reliant on the U.S. in the areas of air defences and intelligence sharing, military analysts said. Kyiv particularly covets U.S. Patriot air defence systems, capable of intercepting ballistic missiles that Russia is firing with increasing frequency. As of April this year, Ukraine had seven fully operational systems, well short of the 25 that Zelenskiy has requested, according to analysts at Ukrainian publication Defence Express. Long-range drone and missile attacks often rely on U.S. satellite intelligence. European countries can only go a small way to replacing were the United States to stop sharing it, the European Union Institute for Security Studies said.
