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Tech Mahindra drops 2% after Q1 miss; margin woes ahead or chance to buy?

Tech Mahindra drops 2% after Q1 miss; margin woes ahead or chance to buy?

Shares of Tech Mahindra fell over 2 per cent on Thursday after the company reported a sequential decline in first-quarter earnings, prompting analysts to express caution over margin improvement prospects.
The information technology (IT) firm's stock fell as much as 2.21 per cent during the day to ₹1,572 per share. The stock pared some losses to trade 1.22 per cent lower at ₹1,588 apiece, compared to a 0.07 per cent decline in Nifty 50 as of 9:33 AM. CATCH STOCK MARKET LATEST UPDATES LIVE
Tech Mahindra Q1 results
The IT services and consultancy firm's net profit for the June quarter of the current financial year (Q1-FY26) fell 2.2 per cent sequentially to ₹1,140 crore, while its revenue fell 0.25 per cent to ₹13,351 crore. The results missed Bloomberg estimates on both profit and revenue, which were expected to be ₹1,195.1 crore and ₹13,422.3 crore for the quarter.
Communications and banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) business aided the topline figures, contributing 33.8 per cent and 16.4 per cent to the revenue, respectively. Manufacturing, which includes auto, declined 4 per cent while the technology, media and entertainment business was down 3.3 per cent.
New deal wins for the first quarter were $809 million, up 51.5 per cent from last year. The company expects new deals to contribute to the topline from the second quarter.
Tech Mahindra management commentary
The market is very volatile, and the macro environment continues to remain uncertain. The sentiment is not conducive for discretionary investments, according to Mohit Joshi, chief executive officer of Tech Mahindra. 'It is too early to say the tide has turned for significant growth,' cautioned Joshi. 'Hi-tech has been volatile, and clients cut spending quickly if they fear a recession. During the quarter, the segment was also impacted due to a semiconductor company in the US. We expect a better second half for this business.'
Analysts on TechM Q1 results
Nuvama Institutional Equities said Tech Mahindra's Q1 performance was mixed, with revenue and profit missing estimates, while Ebit margin was in line with expectations. While the firm has delivered healthy deal wins, Nuvama flagged concerns over its ability to expand margins further amid a weak macro environment and limited operational levers.
Despite its relatively lower margin and return profile, the stock continues to trade at valuations comparable to large-cap peers. Nuvama trimmed FY26 and FY27 earnings estimates by under 2.5 per cent and maintained a 'Reduce' rating with a target price of ₹1,300.
Antique Stock Broking noted that while Tech Mahindra maintained its FY27 guidance of achieving a 15 per cent Ebit margin and delivered above-average revenue growth, the muted demand environment could make meeting that target difficult.
The brokerage currently estimates 7 per cent CC revenue growth for FY27, with Ebit margin improving to 14 per cent, below the company's guidance. Antique maintained a 'Hold' rating with a target price of ₹1,725.
Centrum Broking said the near-term demand environment remains constrained in certain verticals, with muted traction in the mobility segment due to client-specific issues. However, ramp-ups in large deals and progress in newer markets like the Middle East are expected to support sequential growth across key segments. The brokerage maintained an 'Add' rating and raised its target price to ₹1,821 from ₹1,604 earlier.
TechM share price history
Shares of the company snapped a two-day gaining streak and currently trade at 14 times the average 30-day trading volume, according to Bloomberg. The counter has fallen 6.7 per cent this year, compared to a 6.5 per cent advance in the benchmark Nifty 50. Tech Mahindra has a total market capitalisation of ₹1.55 trillion.
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In-house construction using its team of experts, coupled with the use of Mivan technology, which gives it an edge in terms of faster execution, on-time delivery, and boosts margin; III. Favourable dynamics in Punjab with lower inventory and limited supply by branded players; IV. Net cash surplus of INR2,060cr over FY26-32E (sans its land bank) led by pre-sales growth; V. With a large land parcel spread across diverse locations, where demand is high, it is ready for the future. We expect a net cash surplus of INR1,506cr and a healthier Balance Sheet led by strong collections and internal accruals (net D/E ratio to improve to -0.1x in FY27E from 0.2x as of March). It has ten/four ongoing/upcoming projects, with an inventory/saleable area of 4.98msf/9.8msf (GDV of ~INR1,280cr/~INR5,120cr). Well-diversified land reserves of ~12.2msf will be used for future development. We expect GDV of ~INR1,280/~INR5,400cr ongoing inventory/upcoming to be liquidated by FY30 and envisage a cash surplus of ~INR2,060cr from ongoing and upcoming projects. We see project additions once it launches most of its existing projects. We value AGIIL on its FY26E NAV considering its land reserves and ability to add projects aggressively in its existing micro-market given its brand value and improved Balance Sheet. Organised real estate players gain an edge in underserved Punjab micro-markets Its more than two decades of experience helps it stand out among Punjab's few organised players. Jalandhar and Ludhiana are among the fastest-growing realty markets in the region, with strong traction seen in recent years. We expect continued demand and price appreciation given: i) its luxury positioning, and ii) the presence of an affluent client base. Limited supply from organised players, better infrastructure, and rising aspirations are driving demand for branded residential projects. Proven execution and strategic Tier II presence backed by a diversified portfolio AGIIL's expertise lies in residential development, with a portfolio evenly balanced between luxury and affordable housing. This ensures access to a diversified client base and resilience across market cycles. It has delivered ~9msf across 10 successful projects in Jalandhar. It is expanding in key high-growth micro-markets in Tier II cities where demand is robust. Leveraging Mivan technology and in-house execution, it is ensuring faster project execution, greater durability, and reduced labour and overhead costs. With a sizeable land bank in Tier II cities and a proven execution track record, it is best placed to sustain margin and capitalise on rising demand for branded and quality housing across Punjab. Ongoing and upcoming projects total ~14.8msf; launches seen till FY30 It has significantly scaled up given: i) the favourable market dynamics, ii) timely delivery of premium projects, and iii) strong demand for completed projects, leading to healthy collections and efficient capital recycling via internal accruals. It has 10 ongoing projects (eight residential and a commercial and plot each) with an inventory of ~4.8msf. Four upcoming projects (residential/commercial: three/ one), with a saleable area/GDV of 9.8msf/~INR5,120cr, will be launched by FY30. We expect the entire ongoing inventory to get liquidated by FY28-end. Expect a cash surplus of ~INR2,060cr over FY26-32; Net debt to equity to decline -0.1x in FY27 We expect ongoing and upcoming residential projects to generate a gross/net cash flow of INR8,283cr/INR2,060cr over FY26-32. We foresee a net D/E ratio of -0.1x by FY27 from 0.5x as of FY25on healthy internal accruals. Recommend buy with TP of Rs 1,448 We recommend Buy with a target price of Rs1,448 (upside of 36%). Our Buy recommendation is drive by 1. Well located land bank 2. Experienced management 3. Strong execution 4. Strong demand 5. Healthy cash flows 6. Comfortable balance sheet 7. Attractive valuations. Expect healthy cash flows aided by: i) the development of land parcels, ii) strong brand positioning, and iii) price premium in Punjab. We discount cash flows to FY26 to arrive at a NAV of INR3,539cr with a TP of INR1,448. Maintain BUY.

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