Nature gave warning of recent deadly disasters. Were the right people listening?

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3 days ago

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The first warning of impending disaster some Texas Hill Country residents received came in the form of rushing water, strange noises from passing debris and the screams of victims swept down a raging river.
The usually serene bend of the Guadalupe River in Kerr County rapidly transformed into a torrent of destruction in the early hours of July 4. The catastrophe has claimed the lives of at least 120 people, with more than 150 still missing.
One week later, serious questions remain about what actions local leaders took after ominous warnings from the National Weather Service, echoing other recent high-profile natural disasters marked by accusations of government complacency.
Texas has faced criticism in the wake of disaster before, during 2021's devastating winter weather, and allegations of inefficiency and mismanagement have also followed the wildfires in Los Angeles and Maui — underscoring why figuring out exactly what happened before and during disasters is so critical.
The potential for heavy rain first prompted state emergency management officials to begin pre-positioning resources in the region last week.
On the morning of July 3, 'there was a 10 o'clock weather call,' to discuss the situation, said Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. 'And judges and mayors are invited to be on the call.'
Just over three hours later, forecasters at the NWS issued a flood watch listing Kerrville and surrounding areas at risk for flash flooding and 5 to 7 inches of rainfall.
But a more serious NWS alert came at 1:14 a.m. on Independence Day morning, warning residents of central Kerr Country of 'life-threatening flash flooding,' followed a few hours later by a series of flash flood emergency notices as the Guadalupe River burst its banks and tore through summer camps, homes and recreational vehicles.
Despite repeated attempts by reporters and community members to seek answers, it remains unclear what, if anything, Kerr County public safety leaders did after the first early morning notice of imminent danger from forecasters.
While some local residents described receiving text notifications from the NWS, many did not. And despite spotty cell service in parts of western Kerr County, it's unclear how county leaders acted following the first NWS flash flood warning, and if they sent out evacuation notices of their own or attempted making physical contact with people in the potential impact zone.
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It's also unclear whether county leaders were on the initial Thursday phone call with the Texas Department of Emergency Management, nor is it understood how closely local officials were monitoring forecast reports.
In response to multiple questions, some state and local leaders have grown defensive, insisting their focus is on the rigorous and back-breaking work still underway to find the missing. They say a review of the actions of government officials will come later.
In a news briefing on Tuesday, Gov. Greg Abbott pushed back when asked about accountability.
'Who is to blame?' Abbott said, repeating a reporter's question. 'Know this, that's the word choice of losers.'
But the questions being asked by reporters mirror the very same ones coming from devastated local residents.
After the deadly Los Angeles fires earlier this year, which claimed the lives of 30 people and destroyed thousands of homes, local government leaders faced an onslaught of criticism.
'HEADS UP!!!,' the National Weather Service posted on social media a day before the blazes, describing an impending windstorm as 'LIFE-THREATENING, DESTRUCTIVE.'
HEADS UP!!! A LIFE-THREATENING, DESTRUCTIVE, Widespread Windstorm is expected Tue afternoon-Weds morning across much of Ventura/LA Co. Areas not typically windy will be impacted. See graphic for areas of greatest concern. Stay indoors, away from windows, expect poweroutages. #LA pic.twitter.com/yl83LxeMEc Despite that warning, an investigation by The Los Angeles Times found the city's fire department opted to not deploy in advance about 1,000 personnel and fire engines to respond to any potential fires that might be sparked by the fury of wind that began descending on the area.
The Los Angeles Fire Department chief, who was relieved of duty after the fires, had previously complained about cuts to the department's budget, saying they had 'adversely affected the Department's ability to maintain core operations, such as technology and communication infrastructure, payroll processing, training, fire prevention, and community education.'
And when flames started chewing through Los Angeles area neighborhoods, many residents in some of the hardest-hit areas said they had received no evacuation warning at all.
'None of us got a red (mandatory evacuation) alert before we felt ready to leave our houses,' local resident Mark Douglas told CNN. 'You know, we felt heat and fire and that trumps any alert. So a lot of us gave up on the alert system at that point.'
In language similar to what's now being used by officials in Texas Hill Country, LA's fire commission president said it was 'out of line' to blame any local official for the magnitude of the fires shortly after the tragedy, insisting the focus should be on helping the residents who lost everything.
An investigation into the response is still ongoing.
An investigation of the catastrophic Maui wildfires that killed 101 people and left $6 billion in damage in August 2023 revealed a spate of problems with emergency preparation and coordination before and during the disaster.
Investigators concluded there was 'minimal' pre-positioning of staff and equipment after the National Weather Service issued a red flag warning prior to four major wildfires breaking out.
As wind-fueled fires whipped their way across communities, Maui County's 80 emergency sirens meant to warn residents of imminent danger remained silent.
In the days after, officials offered several explanations amid growing frustration: The sirens were broken. They weren't activated. They would have sent people into danger and not away from it.
Authorities vowed to conduct a full assessment of siren operations.
A deadly deep freeze and winter storm slammed Texas in February 2021. The NWS issued alerts ahead of the dangerous winter weather, and by February 14, every county in the state of Texas was under an active winter storm warning.
Power went out for 4.5 million homes and businesses due to the combination of snow, ice and prolonged cold. Families across the Lone Star State were forced to scavenge for firewood or spend nights in their cars, trying desperately to stay warm in the more than weeklong freeze. In addition to the widespread power outages, water system failures and breakdowns in infrastructure soon followed. More than 200 people died.
While the dangerous days-long power outages were still underway, Gov. Abbott blamed the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the state's power grid, for what he said were failures to prepare the state for the winter storm.
Abbott did also say he was 'taking responsibility for the current status of ERCOT,' adding, 'I find what has happened unacceptable.'
Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz also faced criticism for flying to Cancun, Mexico, as the state froze – a decision he ultimately said was 'obviously a mistake.'
Cruz was also on a preplanned family vacation when the deadly floods ravaged the Texas Hill Country on Friday. The senator 'promptly booked a flight back home' and returned Sunday evening, his office said in a statement.
While Kerr County residents await answers on what attention local leaders paid to the warnings from forecasters, it's evident from past disasters that getting to the bottom of what officials did or did not do is critical.
Although none have disputed the devastating floods appeared with remarkable speed, one thing appears clear: The weather warnings came.
Many elected officials and meteorology veterans have come to the defense of the NWS in the days since.
'The weather service did their job,' Rick Spinrad, former head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said Tuesday. 'The watches and warnings went out. Clearly the heartbreak with respect to this development is that those warnings were not received.'
CNN's Nicquel Terry Ellis, Natasha Chen, Holly Yan, Eric Levenson and Dakin Andone contributed to this report