NHL playoffs vibe check: Jaccob Slavin's defensive excellence, concern in Dallas and more

New York Times

28-05-2025

With a 3-0 win in Game 4 on Monday, the Carolina Hurricanes finally put an end to a 15-game losing streak in the Eastern Conference final. But the odds of a comeback against the reigning champs are still slim. According to The Model™️, the Canes have only a 10 percent chance of advancing.
If the Florida Panthers advance, it'll be their third straight trip to the Stanley Cup Final. It would be the sixth consecutive season with a Florida-based team in the final, as the Tampa Bay Lightning reached the final in 2022 and won back-to-back in 2020 and 2021.
Advertisement
Though a handful of teams have come back recently from a 3-1 hole — from the Panthers against the Boston Bruins in 2023, to the New York Rangers over the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2022, and the Montreal Canadiens over the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2021 — a 3-0 deficit is a different animal. Several teams have tried to win four straight while facing elimination, including the Edmonton Oilers in the final last June, but few have pulled it off. Only four teams have successfully done it in Stanley Cup playoff history, and none in a conference final: The Maple Leafs (1942 final over the Detroit Red Wings), New York Islanders (Round 1 against the Penguins in 1975), Philadelphia Flyers (Round 2 against the Bruins in 2010) and Los Angeles Kings (Round 1 over the San Jose Sharks in 2014).
So, as convincing as the Hurricanes' Game 4 win was, it's going to take a lot more to claw their way back into this series.
With the Oilers' 4-1 win in Game 4, we're one step closer to a Stanley Cup Final rematch.
Stanley Cup rematches are rare in today's NHL. There have been only three instances in the last 50 years. The Red Wings won against the Penguins in 2008, and then Pittsburgh flipped the switch in 2009 against Detroit. That was the first time since 1984, when the Islanders and Oilers went head-to-head for the second consecutive year. Going even further back, the Canadiens and Bruins met for two straight years in 1977 and 1978, with Montreal winning both times.
Before an Oilers-Panthers rematch can even become a possibility, these teams have to get through their respective conferences first.
The star of Game 4 in the Eastern Conference final? Jaccob Slavin, who led all skaters with a 4.03 Game Score. That number is even more impressive considering he didn't earn a single point on any of the Hurricanes' three goals. Instead, it was all fueled by his two-way play.
Slavin's positioning and stickwork are major strengths that were on display all night. In his 18:22 five-on-five minutes, the Canes had a 23-12 shot-attempt advantage and a 1-0 scoring edge. Carolina generated a team-high 1.64 expected goals for in his minutes and gave up only 0.18, which equates to a 90 percent expected goal rate.
Advertisement
Expand to all situations, and that ice time jumped to 28 minutes (and the Canes' scoring edge adds to 3-0). Slavin's workload in those minutes was anything but easy. His primary matchup was against the Carter Verhaeghe–Sam Bennett–Matthew Tkachuk line at five-on-five, but he still saw a lot of Aleksander Barkov. And he played 6:10 minutes on the penalty kill (out of the Canes' eight short-handed minutes) to keep the Panthers' power play off the board. And he was over the boards every other shift to defend Carolina's 1-0 lead late in regulation.
Jaccob Slavin doing what he does best in the d-zone 🫡
📺: Canes 🆚 Panthers on Sportsnet pic.twitter.com/0KhWI9nnwo
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 27, 2025
Slavin can't force the Canes back into this series, but he can give the team consistency from the back end that helps set the foundation for success. Playing 28 minutes a game may not be sustainable, but the Hurricanes need to lean on their No. 1 more to extend this series. As much as teams may want even deployment, some situations call for heavier minutes. It's one thing to expect that in Round 1 and onward through four rounds. It's another in the conference final, especially when the team is without one of its top four defenders. But oddly enough, Slavin didn't lead the team in usage in games 1-3. And while not playing on the power play is a factor in that, it also didn't stop him from averaging the most ice time at five-on-five and in all situations in the regular season.
The Panthers might be one of the deepest teams in the league, but some injuries still hit hard. And Sam Reinhart's absence was felt in Florida, especially Monday night.
Reinhart is a key cog in the Panthers' attack. He plays in all situations, in matchup minutes, which isn't easy to replace. Jesper Boqvist tried to fill his skates in games 3 and 4. And Saturday night, he played well alongside Barkov and Evan Rodrigues. In 8:43 five-on-five minutes, that new-look top line dominated play with 94 percent of the expected goal share and outscored the Hurricanes 3-0.
But in Game 4, that line didn't bring the same spark. In less than six minutes of action, Florida was outshot (7-4 in attempts, 6-2 on goal) and outscored (1-0) and couldn't even muster a 14 percent expected goal rate. That led to some third-period adjustments, with Brad Marchand jumping to the first line in Boqvist's place.
Advertisement
The Panthers' struggles weren't exclusive to the Barkov line, but sometimes a trickle-down effect leads to everyone falling out of sync. It doesn't help that the power play couldn't make up for those five-on-five lapses in Game 4.
Florida's top unit managed to score a power-play goal after Reinhart left Game 2 but has since been held off the scoresheet despite having almost 15 minutes of opportunity. Reinhart might have only two power-play points in the playoffs, but he was on the ice for eight of the team's 12 goals; in the regular season, he was on for 45 of 55 power-play goals. Without him, a top unit of three forwards and two defensemen isn't cutting it.
So if Reinhart isn't ready to return Wednesday night — and that's still up in the air — the Panthers need to step up in his absence.
Most think of the Oilers' goaltending as chaotic and erratic. And most would be right — it was just a few weeks ago that Stuart Skinner lost his No. 1 role to Calvin Pickard in Round 1 after an abysmal start to the postseason. But the Skinner glow-up has been real since returning to action.
Skinner's first game back against the Vegas Golden Knights was a little shaky, but he quickly found his footing with back-to-back shutouts to close out Round 2. And now he's been a difference-maker against the Dallas Stars, with three quality starts in four games. The latest came in Game 4, when Skinner saved 3.27 goals above expected; that brings his GSAx to 6.88 against Dallas. And that more than wipes out his poor start to the playoffs, when he allowed 5.32 more goals than expected in his first three outings.
Skinner isn't in this alone — the Oilers' high-octane offense has given him goal support, and the defense has been really solid over the last two rounds (and that's why the team doesn't have to rush Mattias Ekholm back from injury). But the difference over this last stretch is that he is coming up with key saves to win tight, low-scoring games.
Just take his Game 4 performance, when Skinner turned aside 33 unblocked shots worth 2.29 expected goals in the first 20 minutes of play. His play gave the Oilers a chance in what was a 2-1 game until two empty-netters sealed the win in the last few minutes of regulation. Now, in five of his last six games, Skinner has allowed one goal or less.
Advertisement
That's the energy the Oilers need Skinner to bring, especially with some key injuries up front to Connor Brown and Zach Hyman. If Edmonton's offensive attack suffers from it, that steady goaltending is going to be all the more important.
On the flip side of the Oilers' goaltending, the conversation shifts to the Stars' offense, which has completely dried up.
That looked like a potential weak point for Dallas heading into this series because the team scored at a rate of only 1.87 goals per 60 at five-on-five through two rounds. Mikko Rantanen's star power and a power play that tallied 12 goals in about 60 minutes of opportunity helped make up for it.
A convincing Game 1 win over Edmonton helped quiet any concerns when the supporting cast picked up the pace with goals from Tyler Seguin, Mikael Granlund and Matt Duchene. So did the fact that Dallas scored three power-play goals against the Oilers, after going 0-for-14 against them in the Western Conference final last spring.
But since then, the Stars have mustered only two goals over the next three games, which has pushed them to the brink of elimination. It doesn't help that since Game 1, Dallas has converted only once in 14:37 of power-play minutes. But the core issues are at five-on-five, where the Stars have been outscored 9-3. Those three goals bring down the Stars' playoff-wide five-on-five scoring rate to 1.65 per 60, which ranks 15th out of the 16 teams to qualify for the postseason.
The Stars' forward depth — their best strength — hasn't stepped up enough this series, but unlike Round 2, the big guns aren't, either. Their top line was the weakest with a chance to tie the series in Game 4. Rantanen, Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz struggled in 11:33 minutes of play, with the team generating only five shot attempts in their minutes (while giving up 17) and a 28 percent expected goal rate. Instead of being tied 2-2, this team is now down 3-1.
Until the Stars change the story and find an offensive spark, the clock is officially ticking on their season. Dallas is one game away from being eliminated by the Oilers for the second straight year.
— Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on those numbers.
(Top photo of Jaccob Slavin and Aleksander Barkov: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)