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Globe and Mail
25 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
PayPal Stock Dropped 9% After Earnings. Is it a Red Flag, or a Buying Opportunity?
Key Points The recent selloff for PayPal stock could be an overreaction, given management's full-year forecast. Some lackluster results in some key metrics should give investors pause before buying. 10 stocks we like better than PayPal › Shares of financial technology (fintech) company PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) dropped 9% on July 29 after it reported second-quarter financial results. I believe it was a clear overreaction. Investors seemed to head for the exits after looking at PayPal's second-quarter free cash flow. In Q2, the company generated free cash flow of $692 million, which was down a whopping 49% year over year. That certainly looks troubling. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More » In reality, PayPal had been expecting $6 billion to $7 billion in free cash flow in 2025. After reporting Q2 results, its expectations are unchanged. The 49% Q2 drop is simply a cash-flow timing issue, not a sign of something problematic. Consequently, I believe the 9% drop for PayPal stock was overdone. But is the drop in PayPal stock's price a buying opportunity? That's a question worth exploring. What's going right for PayPal PayPal is a low-growth business at this point with just 5% Q2 revenue growth. Active accounts were only up by 2%. But the company is turning some heads when it comes to profitability. When PayPal hired Chief Executive Officer Alex Chriss in 2023, he immediately took notice of the company's transaction margin. To win large accounts, the company had lowered its prices, particularly when it was working behind the scenes with unbranded checkouts. PayPal has renegotiated some of its top contracts since Chriss' arrival, and it's lifted how much profit it makes per transaction. In Q2, the company's transaction margin dollars increased by 7%, which was notably ahead of its 5% revenue growth. When it comes to the bottom line, it gets even better for PayPal. Management has aggressively bought back stock with its profits, lowering the share count and consequently boosting its earnings per share (EPS). Q2 EPS was up 20% year over year, which is something that shareholders love to see. Since early 2022, the share count for PayPal has steadily dropped, as the chart below shows. PYPL Average Diluted Shares Outstanding (Quarterly) data by YCharts There are some caution flags out PayPal stock dropped 9% after earnings, as mentioned. It's also down 23% from 52-week highs, as of this writing. So, investors want to know if this pullback is a buying opportunity. After considering what's going right, some may be inclined to believe that it is indeed an opportunity. There is more to consider, however. First and foremost, PayPal's user growth has stalled. Active accounts were only up 2% in Q2. But more troubling was the 4% drop in transactions per active account on a trailing-12-month basis. The downward trend started in the first quarter, when transactions per account had dropped by 1% (after years of increases), but it looks like it's picking up steam now. With account growth stalling and transactions dropping, PayPal doesn't offer much to investors when it comes to revenue growth. That's why these are caution flags -- stocks that outperform the S&P 500 usually have above-average top-line growth. What's the verdict? While PayPal's recent growth leaves a lot to be desired, better growth could be around the corner. For starters, PayPal owns Venmo, and it accounts for 18% of the company's total payment volume -- a meaningful amount. Venmo's growth has accelerated in recent quarters. In the second quarter of 2024, Venmo's volume was only up 8% but it was up by 12% in Q2. This acceleration is promising. Moreover, PayPal just announced PayPal World, a partnership that will allow for interoperability with major digital wallets worldwide. Early joiners include Latin America's MercadoLibre and China's Tencent. This partnership could boost PayPal's adoption, but investors won't know for sure until after it officially launches this fall. For me, the verdict is that PayPal stock is a buy, with a caveat. The caveat is that I don't believe the company's current growth can lift the stock above the S&P 500 over the next five years. Shareholders need some of its growth initiatives to pay off. However, PayPal stock is low-risk. Its scale is vast, it's generating substantial free cash flow, and it's boosting shareholder value with stock buybacks. Even if growth continues to sputter, the company's EPS should increase modestly, lifting the shares. Because PayPal stock is down significantly from its 52-week high, there's a margin of safety with this investment. In conclusion, if things go as they are now, there may be little downside for investors. And if things get better due to things such as Venmo's growth, then it could be a market-beating investment. Should you invest $1,000 in PayPal right now? Before you buy stock in PayPal, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and PayPal wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $625,254!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,090,257!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,036% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 181% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 29, 2025


CBC
36 minutes ago
- CBC
Canada says no deal is better than a bad one
Aug. 1, 2025 | Canada's federal government insists it won't accept a bad trade deal from the U.S. Plus, cracks in the U.S. economy emerge and U.S. President Donald Trump lashes out as well as Canada's staycation summer.


Globe and Mail
an hour ago
- Globe and Mail
Billionaires Are Buying a Popular AI Index Fund That Could Turn $500 Per Month Into $432,300
Key Points Three prominent billionaire money managers bought shares of the Invesco QQQ Trust in the first quarter. The Invesco QQQ Trust is heavily invested in technology stocks likely to benefit from artificial intelligence. The fund achieved a total return of 1,560% in the last two decades, compounding at 15% annually. 10 stocks we like better than Invesco QQQ Trust › The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) is the fifth-most popular exchange-traded fund (ETF) worldwide as measured by assets under management. Several prominent billionaires added to their positions in the first quarter, as detailed below: Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors added 2.2 million shares. The Invesco QQQ Trust now ranks as the third-largest position in the hedge fund, excluding options. Israel Englander of Millennium Management added 474,300 shares. The ETF now ranks among the 25 largest positions in the hedge fund, excluding options. Steven Cohen of Point72 Asset Management added 7,950 shares. The ETF remains a relatively small position in the hedge fund. Citadel, Millennium, and Point72 are three of the most profitable hedge funds in history as measured by net gains. That makes all three money managers good sources of inspiration, and individual investors should consider following their lead with this ETF. The Invesco QQQ Trust could turn $500 per month into $432,300 in 20 years. The Invesco QQQ Trust is heavily invested in technology companies likely to benefit from artificial intelligence The Invesco QQQ Trust measures the performance of the Nasdaq-100, an index that tracks the 100 largest nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. The ETF has more than 60% of its assets invested in technology stocks, many of which are likely to benefit as the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution continues to unfold. The 10 largest holdings in the Invesco QQQ Trust are listed by weight below: Nvidia: 9.8% Microsoft: 8.7% Apple: 7.2% Amazon: 5.6% Broadcom: 5.3% Alphabet: 5% Meta Platforms: 3.5% Netflix: 2.8% Tesla 2.6% Costco Wholesale: 2.3% AI spending across hardware, software, and services is forecast to grow at 35.9% annually through 2030, according to Grand View Research. Several companies listed above should benefit. Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are the three largest public cloud providers, meaning demand for AI infrastructure should be a tailwind. And Nvidia is the undisputed leader in data center GPUs, the most popular type of AI accelerator. Apple has introduced generative AI capabilities for iPhones. Meta Platforms is leaning on AI to increase user engagement across its social media platforms and improve outcomes for advertisers. Netflix recently started using generative AI to create content for movies and shows. Broadcom is the market leader in AI networking chips and custom AI accelerators, and Tesla recently launched an autonomous ride-hailing service. History says the Invesco QQQ Trust can turn $500 invested monthly into $432,300 in 20 years Excluding dividends, the Invesco QQQ Trust advanced 1,340% during the last two decades, which is equivalent to 14% annually. Including dividends, the index fund achieved a total return of 1,560%, compounding at 15% annually. I will assume a more modest return of 12% annually to introduce a margin of safety. At that pace, $500 invested monthly in the fund would be worth $105,200 in one decade and $432,300 in two decades. Some investors may prefer to save more or less each month, so the chart below shows how different contribution amounts would grow over time, assuming annual returns of 12%. Holding Period $200 Per Month $400 Per Month $600 Per Month 10 Years $42,100 $84,200 $126,300 20 Years $172,900 $345,800 $518,700 Returns were determined using the compound interest calculator. Investors need two more pieces of information. First, the Invesco QQQ Trust has been very volatile in the past due to its heavy exposure to technology stocks. The index fund fell more than 12% from its record high seven times in the last decade. Similar volatility is likely in the future. Second, the ETF has an expense ratio of 0.2%, meaning shareholders will pay $20 per year on every $10,000 invested. Comparatively, the average expense ratio on U.S. index funds and mutual funds was 0.34% in 2024. Should you invest $1,000 in Invesco QQQ Trust right now? Before you buy stock in Invesco QQQ Trust, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Invesco QQQ Trust wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $625,254!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,090,257!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,036% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 181% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 29, 2025 Trevor Jennewine has positions in Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Costco Wholesale, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.