WTO reports goods trade rise in early 2025, but slower growth ahead
The WTO's latest Goods Trade Barometer, a composite leading indicator for global merchandise trade, rose to 103.5 from 102.8 in March. The rise was driven by importers frontloading purchases ahead of anticipated higher tariffs, the WTO said.
Barometer values above 100 indicate above-trend trade volumes, while values below 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or is likely to decline in the near future.
However, the forward-looking new export orders index fell to 97.9, pointing to weaker trade growth later in the year, the WTO said.
The WTO has forecast a basically flat growth in global merchandise trade at 0.1 percent, after the U.S. tariff policy uncertainty and subsequent developments had caused fluctuations in the forecast.
The WTO warned of possible trade contraction if U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are reinstated or if trade policy uncertainty spreads globally.
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