Flood predictions could worsen when Trump's cuts take hold

E&E News

4 hours ago

The White House is rejecting assertions from Democrats and former NOAA officials that its cuts to weather and disaster spending contributed to the Texas flooding that killed more than 100 people.
But that stance sidesteps a looming reality: The vast majority of President Donald Trump's rollbacks to the agencies' funding, staffing and science have yet to land.
Scientists and weather prediction experts warned that once he fulfills his agenda, areas around the country could face new risks as federal programs are degraded — from disaster warning systems and satellite observations to funding for flood projects and disaster aid. The Trump White House has proposed cutting $163 billion from the federal budget in the next fiscal year — making it the smallest in recent history.
Advertisement
'Lives are going to be lost, property is going to be damaged,' said Rick Spinrad, who served as NOAA administrator under former President Joe Biden.
On Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt described Democrats who had pointed to Trump's cuts at the National Weather Service in the aftermath of the floods as 'depraved and despicable' and said the offices in the affected area were fully staffed. In fact, both offices had vacancies in key positions, according to NOAA's own records.
A spokesperson for the White House budget office rejected the idea that Trump's policy ideas could affect the outcome of disasters.
'It is sad that while recovery efforts are ongoing, people are opportunistically trying to score political points by faulting unrelated budget cuts like the Green New Scam,' said Rachel Cauley.
It's true that weather forecasts and warnings were accurate ahead of the disaster despite widespread cuts at the National Weather Service, which is part of NOAA.
But weather predictions and forecast accuracy stand to change as Trump cements his agenda, according to a former top NOAA official and climate scientists.
Hundreds of NWS officials have already lost their jobs, leaving vacancies in top meteorological roles that warn communities of looming weather extremes. The agency's basic functionality is already suffering. Billions more in federal budget cuts to agencies involved in weather and climate prediction and planning is slated for elimination.
That includes cutting entire divisions of atmospheric research at NOAA, half of NASA's science division, labs that study extreme weather, weather-monitoring spacecraft now in orbit and thousands of additional scientists.
The proposed Trump administration cuts are so steep to weather prediction and science that the forecast in Texas could be far more accurate than future predictions, Spinrad said.
'If you have a problem with the quality of that forecast, then you want to have a real problem with eliminating the National Severe Storms Laboratory,' Spinrad said, referring to one of the NOAA labs — an extreme weather research facility that Trump has slated for elimination. 'Our ability to improve the forecast, the understanding and the guidance with respect to responding to events like this is only going to degrade, not improve, and this is after decades and decades of improvement in all of these forecasts.'
That includes tools for flood prediction and recovery — setting the country up for potentially worse outcomes when extreme rainfall strikes.
Compromised flood predictions
Chief among the proposed cuts is the elimination of NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which coordinates scientific studies on everything from extreme weather to marine ecosystems. Its facilities 'provide indispensable scientific research and analysis for meteorologists across the country,' said Tom Fahy, legislative director at the union that represents NWS employees.
OAR houses a network of NOAA laboratories and 16 science consortiums involving dozens of research institutes across 33 states. Many of them study extreme weather, from hurricane research in Miami to severe thunderstorm research in Norman, Oklahoma. They also help build weather models that scientists use to forecast events like the Texas floods.
Trump's proposed cuts would also hamstring one of the main tools for observing weather in real time: Our eyes in space.
The proposed NASA budget would severely cut funding for spacecraft that are used for weather prediction and modeling future conditions. A number of targeted satellites are already in orbit. NASA's $7 billion science division is slated to be cut in half, with the budget ax centering on climate research.
That means predicting future floods — and the development of new tools for forecasting intense rainfall events — would be compromised.
The next generation of Landsat satellites is a key example. For about 50 years, the satellites have been an essential tool for monitoring and mapping floods. Their data is important 'for assessing risk, mapping the extent of damage, and planning post-disaster recovery,' according to NASA.
Trump is working to eliminate its funding.
A few weeks ago, Trump administration officials archived the Landsat account on X and deleted information related to the planning for Landsat Next, the tenth version of the satellite, from its webpage.
Weather forecasts gradually improve as scientists add more data. But they'll likely plateau — or even degrade — as NOAA's research and observation functions vanish, many scientists warn.
OAR's research 'has been amazing at developing computer models to help in the forecasting of these types of events,' said John Sokich, NWS's former director of congressional affairs, referring to the Texas floods. But if the office isn't reinstated by Congress for 2026, he said, 'that's going to stop.'
Some of the agency's most valuable models for flood prediction might be in jeopardy sooner rather than later.
The government's accurate forecasts of the deadly floods were made possible by a suite of high-resolution NOAA weather models designed to predict thunderstorms, Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, said in a live YouTube talk Monday.
Having multiple models in the system helps scientists evaluate a range of possible outcomes when severe weather is on the horizon. NOAA tried to consolidate the collection of models into a single forecasting system a few years ago. But meteorologists expressed concern that it might not perform as well, and the change was delayed.
Trump plans to revive the plan.
'There's benefit in having multiple models,' Swain said. 'How expensive is it really to maintain that, as opposed to the cost of them missing a catastrophic flood?'
'A disconnect'
Meanwhile, staffing cuts at NWS offices across the country are likely to take a toll over time, experts say.
NWS offices were adequately staffed during the Texas floods, in part because agency officials called 'all hands on deck' to deal with the disaster, according to Fahy. But the offices still have vacancies in key roles, including a permanent meteorologist-in-charge in San Angelo and a warning coordination meteorologist in San Antonio.
Other offices across the country face similar shortages, and experts have raised alarms about the potential for burnout — which can lead to forecasting errors — among exhausted staff working overtime during disasters.
At the same time, Trump has cut funding for activities that help meteorologists engage with local authorities.
Warning coordination meteorologists — a top position at NWS offices — serve as liaisons with emergency managers and other officials, attending meetings, conferences and tabletop exercises aimed at planning for extreme weather events. Trump has suspended travel funding for these activities, according to Fahy, which could lead to long-term breakdowns in communication and collaboration between forecasters and their communities.
'They need to be able to do this,' Fahy said. 'That is the core function of their duties, which is the outreach of their message.'
According to Fahy, vacancies at the NWS offices in Texas didn't cause problems during the deadly floods. But some experts are worried that they contributed to a gap between the severity of the weather forecasts and the way local authorities communicated the dangers to the public.
'Clearly there was a disconnect — the message didn't get to the people who need it when they needed it or they didn't understand it,' said Swain.
He added that the science was spot on during the floods. In this case, forecasters were still able to do their jobs.
But if Trump's proposed cuts become reality?
'That will 100 percent be responsible for costing lives,' Swain said.
Reporter Daniel Cusick contributed.