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Nikkei Asia
6 hours ago
- Nikkei Asia
EU-China summit, Shanghai AI conference, Taiwan recall votes
Welcome to Your Week in Asia. Amid a shifting geopolitical order, European Union leaders are set to visit Beijing for a summit during which bilateral tensions are expected to dominate, even as China tries to use the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump's policies to bolster its global position. Across the Taiwan Strait, voters will be preparing to cast their ballots over potential recalls of Kuomintang lawmakers. In Japan, as markets seek to make sense of the upper house election result, the Bank of Japan's deputy governor is expected to offer some hints to the central bank's policy direction in a speech. Get the best of our coverage of Asia and much more by following us on X, where our handle is @NikkeiAsia. We are also now on Bluesky, with the handle @ MONDAY Marcos' trip to U.S. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s visit to the U.S. at Trump's invitation continues through Tuesday. Beyond tariff-related concerns, the long-standing allies are expected to address the evolving dynamics of their partnership, particularly in light of China's expanding influence. TUESDAY Data: Malaysia consumer price index WEDNESDAY ADB economic outlook The Asian Development Bank is set to release the latest update to its flagship "Asian Development Outlook" report, with the publication coming at a crucial time given the evolving impact of the U.S.-China trade war. In the previous edition, the multilateral lender flagged the impact of Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs in Asia, a region that faces the highest duties in the world. BOJ deputy governor speech Bank of Japan Deputy Gov. Shinichi Uchida will give a speech at a meeting with leaders in Kochi Prefecture. His remarks will be closely followed by market participants, as they will come just days after the July 20 upper house election, with the central bank's next monetary policy meeting following not long after at the end of the month. Earnings: Tesla, Infosys, Dr. Reddy's THURSDAY EU-China summit European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her delegation arrive in Beijing following a visit to Tokyo the previous day. Amid trade disputes and Beijing's support for Russia, the EU team are likely to face a frostier reception in China. Beijing has already set the tone by halving the invitation to one day, and it is unsure if President Xi Jinping will even attend the summit. Indonesia auto show Nearly 40 passenger vehicle brands, including BYD, Hyundai, Mitsubishi Motors and Toyota, will take part in the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show organized by the Association of Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers. The event, which is being held in a Jakarta suburb, comes at a time when Indonesia's shrinking middle class is impacting ASEAN's largest auto market. Earnings: Mitsubishi Motors, Nestle India, SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor Data: India flash purchasing managers index Monetary policy: Turkey FRIDAY Earnings: LG Energy Solutions SATURDAY Shanghai AI conference The World Artificial Intelligence Conference, China's largest AI exhibition, opens in Shanghai. The annual event, lasting four days, is expected to showcase over 3,000 cutting-edge exhibits from tech companies including Alibaba Group, Moore Threads Technologies, QuantumCtek and Tesla. Taiwan recall elections No-confidence votes will be held against 24 KMT lawmakers, the first in a series of moves to potentially recall up to 31 of them. The action stems from growing backlash by lawyers, protesters and civil society groups against the KMT-led legislature's policies, which have impacted President Lai Ching-te's government budgets, the operations of the top court and defense and foreign policy initiatives. Earnings: Kotak Mahindra Bank


Yomiuri Shimbun
a day ago
- Yomiuri Shimbun
Sluggish Tesla Sales Lead Panasonic to Delay Start of EV Battery Production at New U.S. Plant
Panasonic Holdings Corp. has decided to postpone the start of full operations of its newly built U.S. electric vehicle battery plant, as Panasonic's major client Tesla has reported sluggish sales, prompting Panasonic to review its production plans. Operations at the plant, located in Kansas, were originally scheduled to start at the end of fiscal 2026. The global EV market is experiencing a slowdown in growth, leading to widespread revisions of production and investment plans. Construction of the Kansas plant, which was built with an investment of about $4 billion (about ¥590 billion), began in autumn 2022 as Panasonic's second U.S. production site, after its Nevada facility. Panasonic initially planned to reach full production of the plant, which has an annual production capacity of about 30 gigawatt-hours, by the end of fiscal 2026, but this has been changed to 'undecided.' Tesla's global sales for the April-June period were 384,000 vehicles, down 13% from the same period last year, marking the second consecutive quarter of a two-digit decline. This is said to be due to the political remarks and actions of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, whose relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump has soured. The outlook for the overall EV market in the United States is uncertain. The Trump administration plans to abolish tax incentives for EVs at the end of September. The administration also plans to impose an additional 50% tariff on copper which is used in products such as EV motors, and the additional tariff could affect future market trends. In response to this situation, Japanese automakers are also reviewing their production plans in North America. Toyota Motor Corp. had planned to begin U.S. production of two new EV models by 2026 but has postponed the start of production for one of the models to 2028. Nissan Motor Co. has also delayed the start of production of new EVs in the United States. Honda Motor Co. has postponed the start of operations at its new EV plant in Canada, originally set for 2028, to 2030 or later. The company had planned to invest ¥10 trillion by fiscal 2030 in global EV-related projects, including software development, but this was reduced this to ¥7 trillion. In Japan, EV sales are stagnating due to high prices and a lack of charging facilities, leading automakers to review their EV strategies. Nissan announced in May that it will abandon plans to build an EV battery plant in Kitakyushu. Toyota is working to reschedule the start of the operation of its battery plant yet to be constructed in Fukuoka Prefecture. The start was originally planned for 2028, but this will likely be delayed. Panasonic is collaborating with Subaru Corp. and Mazda Motor Corp. to establish new battery factories in Japan and expand production capacity. Depending on market conditions, the company may be forced to revise its domestic plans as well.


The Diplomat
a day ago
- The Diplomat
How Iran Sees the China-US Trade War
As the expiration date for the truce in the trade war between the United States and China approaches, policymakers in Tehran see both immediate risks and potential long-term opportunities for the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is demonstrated in analysis produced by the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations (SCFR), an entity tasked with advising Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on diplomatic affairs. Although not a decision-making body, the SCFR can indicate the direction of Iranian policymaking, due to its proximity to Khamenei's office and the involvement of key loyalists to the Supreme Leader, including former presidential contender Saeed Jalili. In its assessments of the China-U.S. trade war, the SCFR reveals how the Islamic Republic sees the rift between Washington and Beijing, while having little ability to influence its outcome. Amid international sanctions and diplomatic isolation, Iran has expanded its engagement with China. In recent years, China emerged as a critical economic partner for Iran – receiving up to 90 percent of Iranian oil exports, according to some reports. While the United States has sought to curtail these trade links, evasive shipping practices, avoidance of dollar transactions, and the use of 'teapot' refineries have enabled Iran and China to bypass sanctions. This has offered the Islamic Republic a crucial economic lifeline. Their partnership was formalized under a broader 25-year cooperation agreement between Tehran and Beijing signed in 2021. Outside of the energy sector, Iran's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative has facilitated Chinese infrastructure and utilities investment. In the wake of conflict between Iran and Israel, speculation has also emerged that Iran could bolster its security ties to China, especially amid military setbacks and apparent frustrations with Russia. The U.S. has sought to counter Iran's movement toward China, especially under the Trump administration, as a means of enhancing leverage over the Islamic Republic. During the past several months, Washington has moved to sanction entities involved in transporting and refining Iranian oil for the Chinese market. In the short term, upholding the status quo between the U.S. and China would be in Iran's interest, either by Beijing and Washington maintaining the interim tariff reduction deal or reaching a more permanent settlement. According to SCFR analysis, a reinvigorated China-U.S. trade war could harm Iran's economic lifeline, by reducing China's demand for production inputs like oil. Given its dependence on the Chinese market, this would have significant ramifications for Iran's already weak economy. It would also intensify inflation and weaken Iranian foreign currency reserves, both of which have been recurrent issues for the Islamic Republic's monetary system. Compounding these factors, diminished exports to China would strengthen sanctions enforcement by the West, which the Islamic Republic has failed to significantly alleviate via diplomatic means. As Iran seeks to regain its footing ahead of renewed competition with Israel, these pressures could undermine efforts to curb domestic dissent and replenish its military forces, leading to wider strategic challenges. Iran also sees opportunity in the China-U.S. trade war, as a potential disruption to the existing international order. In particular, the potential long-term weakening of the U.S. dollar could support Iran's strategic interests. As noted by one SCFR publication, reducing the dollar's dominance as the world reserve currency would diminish the efficacy of sanctions and relative U.S. economic power. This would dovetail with efforts by the Islamic Republic to support other global 'de-dollarization' initiatives, including the formation of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization bank and the expansion of the BRICS New Development Bank. Nevertheless, the SCFR may be overly optimistic on the prospects of de-dollarization, as a clear alternative has yet to emerge. Additionally, the SCFR claims that China could seek to develop new export markets in the Middle East, including Iran, necessitating a stronger economic and diplomatic push in the region. This would be to Iran's advantage, as it could entail further Chinese investment and non-oil trade, both of which the Islamic Republic has consistently pursued. That said, Chinese direct investment in Iran has been limited thus far. It is also to China's advantage that Iran is economically weak and isolated, as it enables the import of Iranian oil at a significant discount. Despite limited influence over the situation, the SCFR asserts that the China-U.S. trade war must be 'optimally utilized' to Iran's advantage. In particular, it identifies 'global polarization' and economic uncertainty as factors that could create opportunities for deepening trade relations with other developing states. Specifically, Brazil and India are highlighted as potential import partners, with the potential to reduce Iran's dependence upon any single patron. However, it is unlikely that either could match China's energy demand. Furthermore, much of Iran's success in diversifying commercial relations has come through states such as Belarus and Serbia, which are unlikely to import Iranian oil in significant amounts, despite offering certain opportunities. Overall, the SCFR's assessment reflects a lack of options for the Islamic Republic to proactively shape the situation to its advantage. This further indicates that the status quo may be Tehran's preferred outcome, for the time being. In sum, the SCFR's perspective on the China-U.S. trade war reveals a reactive posture. This is marked by an effort to preserve the Islamic Republic's current advantages while seeking new openings amid global economic shifts, primarily designed to erode and challenge U.S. influence. Still, Iran's ability to capitalize on these developments remains constrained by structural weaknesses, international isolation, and its growing dependence on its energy exports to China. As such, Tehran's strategic calculus ultimately hinges on maintaining regime resilience, while seeking space to balance and maneuver within broader great power competition.