Mark Milke: Why the West's separatists could be just a big a threat as Quebec's

National Post

4 hours ago

In light of the poor showing by separatist candidates in recent Alberta byelections, pundits and politicians will be tempted to again dismiss threats of western separatism as over-hyped, and too tiny to be taken seriously, just as they did before and after the April 28 federal election.
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Much of the initial skepticism came after former Leader of the Opposition Preston Manning authored a column arguing that some in central Canada never see western populism coming. He cited separatist sympathies as the newest example.
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In response, (non-central Canadian!) Jamie Sarkonak argued that, based upon Alberta's landlocked reality and poll numbers (37 per cent Alberta support for the 'idea' of separation with 25 per cent when asked if a referendum were held 'today'), western separation was a 'fantasy' that 'shouldn't be taken seriously.' The Globe and Mail's Andrew Coyne, noting similar polling, opined that 'Mr. Manning does not offer much evidence for his thesis that 'support for Western secession is growing.''
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Prime Minister Mark Carney labelled Manning's column ' dramatic.' Toronto Star columnist David Olive was condescending. Alberta is 'giving me a headache,' he wrote. He argued the federal government's financing of 'a $34.2-billion expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX)' as a reason Albertans should be grateful. If not, wrote Olive, perhaps it was time for Albertans to 'wave goodbye' to Canada.
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As a non-separatist, born-and-bred British Columbian, who has also spent a considerable part of his life in Alberta, I can offer this advice: Downplaying western frustrations — and the poll numbers — is a mistake.
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One reason is because support for western separation in at least two provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan, is nearing where separatist sentiment was in Quebec in the 1970s.
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In our new study comparing recent poll numbers from four firms (Angus Reid Institute, Innovative Research Group, Leger, and Mainstreet Research), the range of support in recent months for separation from Canada in some fashion is as follows, from low to high: Manitoba (6 per cent to 12 per cent); B.C. (nine per cent to 20 per cent); Saskatchewan (20 per cent to 33 per cent) and Alberta (18 per cent to 36.5 per cent). Quebec support for separation was in a narrow band between 27 per cent and 30 per cent.
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What such polling shows is that, at least at the high end, support for separating from Canada is now higher in Saskatchewan and Alberta than in Quebec.
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Another, even more revealing comparison is how western separatist sentiment now is nearing actual Quebec votes for separatism or separatist parties back five decades ago. The separatist Parti Québécois won the 1976 Quebec election with just over 41 per cent of the vote. In the 1980 Quebec referendum on separation, 'only' 40 per cent voted for sovereignty association with Canada (a form of separation, loosely defined). Those percentages were eclipsed by 1995, when separation/sovereignty association side came much closer to winning with 49.4 per cent of the vote.