In upcoming S. Korean presidential race, candidates, their ideological stripes and pledges may not matter

Straits Times

16-05-2025

The race will boil down to South Koreans voting on whether they agree or disagree with the short-lived martial law of Dec 3, 2024. PHOTO: EPA-EFE
In upcoming S. Korean presidential race, candidates, their ideological stripes and pledges may not matter
- As the campaigning for South Korea's upcoming presidential election kicked off officially on May 12, political observers are predicting that the race will not be about the candidates, their policy pledges or even political ideology.
It will boil down to South Koreans voting on whether they agree or disagree with the short-lived martial law of Dec 3, 2024 declared by then President Yoon Suk Yeol. He was stripped of his presidential powers on April 4, triggering the June 3 snap election for a new leader.
Yoon is currently undergoing a criminal trial on insurrection charges, for the debacle that sparked off the country's worst political upheaval in decades that saw a quick succession of acting presidents, with the latest one being Mr Lee Jun-ho, who is also the Deputy Prime Minister and Education Minister.
'To frame it simply, this election will be about the voters' appraisal of the martial law fiasco,' Yonsei University's Dr Bong Young-shik told The Straits Times.
'Ideological differences have been by and large diluted, at least temporarily,' he added.
Referring to opinion polls conducted by various agencies since the martial law incident, Dr Bong said that the results have shown 'the consistent dominant negative views' held by South Koreans over what had happened.
Among those with such views is Madam Seo Eun-sook, 68, a Seoulite who has been a conservative all her life. She is choosing to vote against the lines of ideology after being bitterly disappointed by the actions of Yoon, who is from the conservative ruling party, the People Power Party (PPP).
She told ST that she could not condone martial law, having experienced the country's military rule in the early 1980s. This leaves her with no other choice but to vote for the liberal candidate, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, instead of the PPP candidate, she said.
'I will only go back to voting for the conservatives once the People Power Party regains its sanity!' she said in a huff.
Mr Lee, who is widely tipped to win the race, has pulled further ahead of his rivals since campaigning started, as the latest opinion polls show.
Results released by Gallup Korea on May 16 showed that Mr Lee's approval rating has risen to 51 per cent, far ahead of the 29 per cent of the PPP candidate, former labour minister Kim Moon-soo, and the eight per cent of Mr Lee Jun-seok, leader of the minor conservative Reform Party.
The same poll also found the biggest opposition party, the Democratic Party, leading with 48 per cent approval, its highest rating in three years, while the ruling PPP is a distant second at 30 per cent.
The two main presidential candidates opted to start their campaigns in the traditional conservative strongholds in the south-eastern region of the country which includes the cities of Daegu, Pohang and Busan.
South Korea's presidential candidates Lee Jae-myung (left) of the liberal Democratic Party and Kim Moon-soo of the conservative People Power Party, making campaign stops in Iksan and Suwon respectively on May 16.
PHOTO: EPA-EFE
Both Mr Lee and Mr Kim have put forth similar domestic policy pledges centred on efforts to reboot the country's sluggish economy and ambitions to propel South Korea to be one of the world's top three artificial intelligence (AI) powers.
Mr Kim attempted to solidify support in a region which has produced several past conservative presidents such as strongmen Chun Doo-hwan and Park Chung-hee and his daughter Park Geun-hye, and Mr Lee Myung-bak.
His rival Mr Lee, meanwhile, sought to sway conservative voters by emphasising national unity in the aftermath of the martial law debacle and pledging to prioritise the nation's future over political ideology.
The region is also where Mr Lee had posted his weakest results in the 2022 presidential race which he lost by a very slim margin to Yoon.
Speaking at a rally on May 13 in the small city of Gumi near Daegu city, Mr Lee urged voters to transcend political ideological divides and pick 'the other choice for once'.
'Try to give Lee Jae-myung a chance. The future of this country is more important than whichever side you are on,' he said.
South Korean politics have traditionally been marked by an east-west ideological divide, with most of the eastern cities favouring conservatives while the western cities tend to favour the liberals.
This divide arose during the nation's industrialisation era in the 1970s and 1980s, when the country's early conservative leaders like Mr Park and Mr Chun prioritised their home regions in the east for economic growth.
But these days, such a geographical ideological split is increasingly losing its relevance, says political science professor Kang Won-Taek from the Seoul National University.
'While such regionalism still affects South Korea's political landscape somewhat, I believe that the impact has significantly weakened,' he said.
'Previously, such regionalism arose because of the difference in economic benefits received from Seoul, but these days the younger generation no longer think that way,' said Prof Kang at a briefing for foreign journalists on April 16, adding that the regional divide these days is between the developed urban Seoul metropolitan region and the rest of the country.
The key to the presidential election victory would lie in the swing voters, says Prof Kang.
Swing or moderate voters are estimated to make up about 40 per cent of the voting populace.
In a bid to win back moderate voters, Mr Kim, a low-profile minister who caught attention for being the only Cabinet minister who refused to apologise in Parliament for the martial law fiasco, belatedly offered his apology at the National Assembly on May 15.
He said that he would have stopped Yoon if he had known in advance Yoon's plans for martial law.
But Dr Bong thinks the apology comes too late.
'Voters can see through why Mr Kim is now apologising for martial law when he did not do so earlier. No matter how many apologies they issue during this campaign, it is not going to critically shift the perception of voters at this point, especially with moderate voters,' he said.
A moderate voter, teacher Kim Young-in, 50, told ST that her choice was clear ever since the brush with martial law.
'Lee Jae-myung may not be perfect, but I believe he will at least uphold the foundations of our country's constitutional laws,' she said.
Wendy Teo is The Straits Times' South Korea correspondent based in Seoul. She covers issues concerning the two Koreas.
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