Struggling US-Thai talks hit sentiment
Late on Friday, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira admitted the US and Thailand have not reached a trade deal after the first face-to-face meeting last week.
The setback comes as media outlets reported the US is considering a curb on artificial intelligence (AI) chip exports to Malaysia and Thailand as it is worried the two countries will re-route the products to China.
The outlook remains uncertain, particularly with the US planning to impose tariffs of up to 36% on countries with significant trade surpluses, including Thailand.
The initial negotiation round, led by Mr Pichai, ended without progress, prompting the US to extend the negotiation deadline from July 9 to Aug 1.
Adding to the pressure, the US warned of an additional 10% tariff hike on countries associated with the BRICS bloc, of which Thailand has applied for membership. This could push Thailand's total import tariff rate to 46%, significantly hampering trade and investment flows.
Thailand has roughly three weeks to prepare for further negotiations. Based on reference rates from countries that have successfully concluded talks, Thailand could negotiate a tariff reduction of 50% from the rate the US initially proposed, said Soraphol Tulayasathien, senior executive vice-president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
He said he still believes Thailand can succeed in the talks.
"The SET has contingency plans to manage market volatility, including adjustments to trading measures such as ceiling and floor limits as well as circuit breakers," said Mr Soraphol.
"We don't expect investors to panic to the same extent as when the US first announced tariffs in April."
Kitichan Sirisukarcha, director of investment solutions at Maybank Securities (Thailand), forecasts the US may agree to reduce the tariff rate to around 18%, potentially split between direct and indirect export tariffs on China-linked goods.
In light of the trade risks, Maybank cut Thailand's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.8%, down from 3%, and its SET index target to 1,290 points, from 1,400.
KGI Securities (Thailand) said its baseline view is Thailand is likely to receive a tariff rate exceeding 20%, more than Vietnam's tariff, with a 20% rate or lower less likely.
"We expect a slightly positive market impact as most economists have priced in tariff rates of 15-20% in their 2025 GDP projections," noted the brokerage.
However, near-term upsides may be limited by curbs on AI chips to Thailand, according to KGI.
If Thailand is not on the list of countries facing unilateral tariff rates, and the grace period for the 10% tariff is extended to allow further negotiations, then trade uncertainties will be prolonged, said the brokerage.
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