Mint Primer: Covid cases are rising again. Should we be worried?
Singapore, Hong Kong, China and some South-East Asian countries have reported a modest spike in covid cases again, as have parts of India. What's causing the rise? Should we be alarmed, and what can we do about it? Mint explains.
How big is the spike in covid cases?
It is significant, but nothing like the levels we saw during 2020-2021. As per the ministry of health and family welfare, India has 257 active covid cases, largely in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. The ministry recorded one death this month but is still in the process of confirming fatalities in Kerala. Meanwhile, Singapore's ministry of health said cases had grown to 14,200 by early May, with 133 hospitalized daily. China's Centre for Disease Control also reported a spike in cases. Of its samples collected weekly, those with covid rose to 16.2% in early May while rates of those hospitalized rose to over 6%.
Also read | Covid-19 like new bat virus HKU5-CoV discovered at Wuhan lab, can enter humans using same gateway as coronavirus
What's causing this spike?
Scientists across countries have pointed to descendants of the JN.1 variant, a version of covid that originated in Europe and spread to France, the UK and later North America starting in late-2023. The World Health Organization (WHO) had declared it a variant of interest (but not concern) in December 2023 as it spread more rapidly than previous versions of covid and dominated the world. Sovereign health authorities, such as Singapore's, said strains including LF.7 and NB.1.8. are responsible for the ongoing spike in cases. But at the WHO, these were not yet variants that it was monitoring as of 14 April.
So, is there reason to worry?
Experts and the data say no. India's case load of 257 is a fraction of what we saw at the height of the pandemic. During the second wave in 2021, India was reporting 300,000-400,000 cases a day. Besides, the WHO says JN.1 causes only mild symptoms. Healthcare authorities globally have not found any evidence that the newest variant causes severe symptoms.
Also read | Covid-19 resurgence: What is JN.1 variant of coronavirus? What are the symptoms?
Then why is this spike of interest?
Because influenza and related respiratory viruses typically spread in the winter, allowing healthcare systems to prepare for seasonal peaks and roll out annual vaccinations. However, this spike shows covid can surge across seasons. While this year's spike in Asia is happening in the summer months, last year's spikes occurred in late-summer, autumn and the winter months as well. Last June, the US Centres for Disease Control said covid could surge around the year and cause relatively more intense local outbreaks.
What does this mean for public health?
Experts in India, Singapore and China have asked people to observe basic precautions, including wearing a mask, or covering your nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing, and keeping up to date with jabs. They have also asked people to stay at home and avoid travelling if they are unwell and wash their hands frequently. However, so far, healthcare authorities in India and abroad have not officially imposed any pandemic-era restrictions such as masks and social distancing.
Also read | Covid cases in India: Mumbai, Pune, Chennai log fresh cases
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