
Asian shares advance, Japan gains after elections
rose at the open after
US stocks
soared to a record ahead of a busy earnings week that will include results from Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc.
Shares in Tokyo — where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he would carry on as leader even as the ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house election — gained 1% as trading resumed after a public holiday Monday. The MSCI regional stock gauge advanced 0.3% after the S&P 500 index closed above 6,300 for the first time.
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A cohort of the world's largest asset managers is leaning harder into the rally in risk assets as US stocks push to fresh highs, defying persistent trade and geopolitical tensions. The high-octane wager is that while President Donald Trump is threatening to disrupt the economic order anew, he will step back from the brink.
Traders are now looking for signs of resilience in
corporate earnings
amid tariff risks.
'Earnings season will move into full swing this week, and the guidance will be more important than usual,' said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. 'This guidance is going to have create a very large increase in earnings estimates if the market is going to reach some of the targets that exist on Wall Street right now.'
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Investors also kept a close eye on tariff headlines. Trump may issue more unilateral tariff letters before Aug. 1, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. More trade deals may also be reached before the deadline, she added.
Meanwhile, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will be the latest foreign leader eager to make a deal before the US-imposed Aug. 1 tariff deadline when he visits Trump in the Oval Office later Tuesday.
Market participants are focused on the performance of
Japanese markets
as investors weigh policy uncertainty after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's historic loss in Sunday's elections.
The yen depreciated slightly against the dollar after strengthening as much as 1% Monday following Ishiba's loss.
With the election out of the way, 'the possibility of a 'sell Japan' trend, due to worries over extreme fiscal spending, has lessened,' supporting stock prices, said Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management. However, uncertainty around the new political landscape is likely to cap gains, he said.
In the US, the second-quarter earnings season is off to a ripping start, with consumer strength powering resilient corporate profits. Yet after hitting a series of all-time highs, the S&P 500 is trading around 22 times expected 12-month profits.
'While stocks may be due for a breather, we believe the bull market remains intact,' said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management. 'We maintain our June 2026 S&P 500 price target of 6,500, and recommend using volatility as an opportunity to phase into markets.'
The S&P 500 hasn't posted a 1% up or down day since late June, and Mark Hackett at Nationwide notes that volatility gauges also remain 'suspiciously quiet.'
'This calm is unusual and may reflect both investor fatigue and institutional hesitation to fight the current trend,' he said. 'We're in a window where calm can quickly turn to complacency. While a break in either direction is possible, current positioning suggests we'd bet on a rally before a drop.'
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Mint
12 minutes ago
- Mint
The Bitcoin is full of contradictions. It could still climb some more.
Bitcoin is in the midst of another historic rally. Can it continue? Your guess is as good as anyone's. The bearish arguments, so far proved wrong by the market, haven't changed. The bullish arguments remain as mercurial—and contradictory—as ever. The original cryptocurrency is having another great year, with its price up more than 27%. On Friday, Bitcoin traded at $119,023, up 0.5% for the day, and only about 3% below its July 14 all-time high of $123,166. The price peg's Bitcoin's total market cap at $2.3 trillion. If Bitcoin were a stock, that would rank it sixth in the S&P 500, behind Google parent Alphabet and in front of Meta, according to FactSet data. Given all the excitement, Wall Street analysts are scrambling to put a target price on the surging asset. On Thursday, Citigroup Global Markets offered investors a framework for understanding Bitcoin's price, based on criteria like demand and macro-economic factors. But the result wasn't going to change many minds: Citi offered a bull case of $199,000, representing a gain of about 70% from today's price and a bear case of $64,000, suggesting a 50% decline. It's hard to blame Citibank's analysts for trying to cover their bases. So many of the arguments in favor of Bitcoin tend to fall back on themselves—and yet the price marches ever upwards. Take Bitcoin's latest price driver: Action in Washington. Last week President Trump signed the Genius Act, a bill designed to regulate stable coins, a form of cryptocurrency backed by real assets. Lawmakers may soon advance the Clarity Act, which is designed to resolve the question of whether regulators should treat cryptocurrencies as commodities or securities. There is even talk of crypto in 401(k)s. It's true those developments could all further mainstream adoption. Yet for anyone who has followed the crypto industry's rhetoric over the past decade, it's a little hard not to blanch at all the cheering over victories in Washington. The original aim of Bitcoin—and its cri de coeur—was to be a store of value whose price was immune to government meddling. Bitcoin's scarcity, amid the growing demand for digital assets, is another key explanation for the rally. But this argument is thorny too. Bitcoin boosters are fond of repeating that there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoins, while regular 'halvings" make Bitcoin less and less lucrative to mine. Meanwhile, demand for Bitcoin has skyrocketed in the past year thanks to the advent of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which make it far easier for mainstream investors to bet on the cryptocurrency. The largest of these, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, has grabbed nearly $38 billion in investor dollars in the past 12 months and nearly $6 billion in the last month alone. But can this potent mix of scarcity and demand continue? While the number of Bitcoins is fixed, there is no limit on the number of copy-cat coins. CoinMarketCap tracks more than 18 million coins, according to its website, with a total market value of $1.5 trillion. So far the SEC has cleared spot ETFs for only the two most valuable cryptos: Bitcoin and Ethereum. But boosters of offerings such as XRP, Litecoin and Solana are clamoring for their own spot ETFs. Washington's new crypto-friendly attitude suggests they will soon get them. Of course, a flood of new crypto ETFs won't necessarily dampen investors' appetite for Bitcoin. Bitcoin's status and mystique as the original crypto has so far ensured it remains more valuable than its many imitators. But the potential flood does suggest that hype, more than limited supply, is what supports Bitcoin's price. Arguments for why investors should own Bitcoin (other than price speculation) are also shaky. Unlike stocks and bonds, Bitcoin doesn't throw off any cash flows. No matter, supporters have long argued. Bitcoin still has a role in your portfolio as a store of value, a form of 'digital gold." It's a view that has led some large investing firms (including Bitcoin ETF sponsors BlackRock and Fidelity) to advocate investors should consider devoting at least a small share of their overall portfolio, say 1% to 2%, to Bitcoin, to boost diversification. The Bitcoin-as-diversifier notion mirrors the longstanding arguments made in favor of owning actual gold—but there are problems with this thesis too. It's true that returns for Bitcoin and gold have resembled one another over the past year. They are both in the midst of big rallies. But, then so are plenty of risk-on assets, notably U.S. growth stocks, led by big U.S. technology names. While gold isn't a perfect hedge against stock-market declines, its reputation as a haven during times of macroeconomic turmoil has been established by academic studies looking at decades of returns. Bitcoin, invented in 2008, boasts no such extensive record. In fact, one recent study (again by BlackRock) found that, although Bitcoin's volatility had recently lessened, the coin remained about four times more volatile than gold. When the next bear market comes it seems likely investors will flee speculative assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks, not run to them for shelter. Where will Bitcoin go next? Prices may continue to march higher, just because they always have. But the arguments in favor of still-bigger gains still don't give much confidence—making sense only if you close one eye and wish away all the contradictions. Write to Ian Salisbury at


Mint
12 minutes ago
- Mint
c
Wall Street ended the week on a positive note, with stocks hitting fresh all-time highs amid solid earnings and hopes for US trade deals. After an uneventful meeting between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell, the Treasury market barely budged. The dollar climbed. In the run-up to the busiest week for corporate results, the S&P 500 rose for a fifth straight day, approaching 6,400. While the rally has stoked concerns about inflated prices amid a rush to risky corners and a revival of the meme-stock mania, many traders say it's hard to bet against the trend. A closely watched gauge of equity volatility - the VIX - closed below 15. 'If you are a structurally bearish investor, the recent few weeks must have felt like a century,' said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. 'Not only are most equity indices advancing in what seems like an endless rally, but their valuations now globally surpass those at the start of the year.' Progress in trade deals, positive economic data and corporate resilience have offset worries that stocks are overheating. More than 80% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded profit estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. That's on track for the highest share of beats since 2021. 'The pace of earnings so far this month has been positive, economic data has been hanging in there, and we're even starting to get some sense of clarity on tariffs,' said Bespoke Investment Group. 'You can't fault investors for being optimistic.' Next week will also bring the jobs report, the Federal Reserve's rate decision and a deadline for US trade deals. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she will travel to Scotland this weekend to meet with Trump, as the two sides aim to conclude a deal ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline. 'The market continues its steady climb as many key investor concerns have failed to materialize,' said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. 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Hindustan Times
32 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Sahyog is ‘wolf in sheep's clothing', X Corp tells Karnataka HC
X Corp on Friday accused the Union government of using the 'innocuously named' Sahyog portal as a 'wolf in sheep's clothing' to issue illegal content blocking orders that bypass statutory safeguards, escalating its legal challenge against what it calls an unconstitutional censorship mechanism. Sahyog is 'wolf in sheep's clothing', X Corp tells Karnataka HC Appearing before the Karnataka High Court, senior advocate KG Raghavan argued further on the company's core content that the government was misusing Section 79(3)(b) of the Information Technology Act and Rule 3(1)(d) of the 2021 IT Rules to circumvent due process protections upheld by the Supreme Court in the landmark Shreya Singhal case. 'It is innocuously named but it is a wolf in sheep's clothing. We are a responsible business and we will abide by the law of every country we operate in. But the question is what is the correct law?' Raghavan told Justice M Nagaprasanna. 'The same grounds of sovereignty, integrity, public order are used under Section 69A. Then why use Section 79 at all? This amounts to a dangerous circumvention of law,' he argued. The hearing represented the latest round in X's challenge to the government's directive mandating social media platforms join the Sahyog portal, a centralised system for content takedown requests that the company argues violates constitutional principles. X's core argument centres on the interpretation of Section 79 of the IT Act, which provides 'safe harbour' protection to intermediaries from legal liability for user-generated content. The platform contends this provision is a protective shield rather than an empowering mechanism for government officials to issue takedown orders. In detailed written submissions filed on Friday, seen by HT, X introduced a 'preceding order' theory, arguing that intermediaries lose safe harbour protection only when there is a court order, a Section 69A order, or another statute that explicitly authorises blocking. The company argued that 'unlawful act' in Section 79(3)(b) must refer only to those three circumstances. 'It is pertinent to mention that the government adopted this interpretation only recently — 25 years after S.79 was enacted and 16 years after the current version of S.79(3)(b) went into effect,' X stated in its submissions, adding that thousands of officers across central ministries, state agencies and police departments now believe Section 79 gives them authority to direct content blocking. 'If your interpretation of Section 79 is accepted, then any officer in this country can decide what is lawful or not, on a purely subjective basis. This is absurd and shocking. It allows officers to be both accuser and judge,' Raghavan argued in court. The government has revealed that 38 intermediaries including Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Telegram have joined the portal, with Meta currently testing integration. X remains the most prominent holdout, arguing the system allows thousands of government officials to issue content blocking orders without proper judicial oversight. Raghavan emphasised that empowering multiple government officials to issue takedown notices based on their discretion erodes the statutory safe harbour protection granted to intermediaries. He maintained that Section 79 should be understood as 'a statutory right, not an exemption granted at the government's discretion.' 'The fear psychosis being created undermines constitutional rights under Articles 14 and 19,' he said, arguing that procedural safeguards under Section 69A remain the only lawful route to block online content. The arguments built on X's broader constitutional challenge that the government is creating parallel blocking mechanisms that bypass safeguards required under Section 69A, which the Supreme Court upheld in Shreya Singhal provided proper due process protections are followed. X's written submissions also addressed several government arguments made in earlier hearings. The company rejected claims that internet speech should be subject to greater restrictions than traditional media, noting this argument was 'narrated by them in Shreya Singhal, which was rejected then.' X maintained that 'the right to free speech remains the same across all mediums, and the broader reach of the internet does not justify lowering the threshold for restrictions.' The platform also disputed the government's contention that the Shreya Singhal precedent is no longer valid because it relied on the US case Reno v. ACLU, which they claim has been questioned in later American rulings. X argued that Shreya Singhal 'remains binding in India under Article 141, no matter the status of Reno in the US,' emphasising that only a larger Supreme Court bench can overturn the precedent. The platform also cited three US Supreme Court cases to argue that laws like Rule 3(1)(d) and systems like the Sahyog Portal, which 'shift the burden onto people to prove their speech is lawful, violate the First Amendment [of the American constitution].' The Karnataka High Court will continue hearing the matter on July 29, when senior advocate KG Raghavan is expected to present arguments based on X's comprehensive written submissions filed on Friday.