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IMF warns India-Pakistan tensions could threaten reform, fiscal goals

IMF warns India-Pakistan tensions could threaten reform, fiscal goals

ISLAMABAD: The rising tensions between India and Pakistan, if sustained or deteriorate further, could heighten enterprise risks to the fiscal, external and reform goals of the program, says the International Monetary fund (IMF).
The Fund in its latest report stated that reputational risks could also come from any perceived lack of even handed or if there was a perceived misuse of Fund disbursements.
As mitigants, the Pakistani authorities have reiterated their strong commitment to the program, which is designed to help restore economic stability, build resilience through stronger reserve buffers, and advance reforms to create stronger and inclusive growth.
IMF reaffirms support for Pakistan's bailout, calls for deesclation with India
Moreover, disbursements under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) are dedicated to build reserves, and the program's ambitious fiscal and reserve goals (including floors on social spending) limit the space for non-priority spending and the use of reserves to finance imports.
Given the Resilience and Sustainable Facility (RSF)'s different purpose, its disbursements are available for fiscal financing, although there cannot be any disbursements outside of an EFF review and not before completion of the second review. Careful Fund communication will be essential to underscore the Fund's neutral role and avoid misperceptions about its lending activities, it added.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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FBR revenue target
FBR revenue target

Business Recorder

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FBR revenue target

The FBR revenue target always features as a key indicative target in the review process of IMF Programmes. The level of FBR revenues is also a key determinant of the state of public finances. These revenues are a big source of revenue to both federal and provincial governments. The year, 2024-25, witnessed revenues of close to Rs 11,700 billion of the FBR. These revenues represent a dominant share of 84 percent in national tax revenues, which also include the revenues from provincial taxes and the petroleum levy. FBR revenues are shared with the provincial governments under the 7th NFC Award. These governments are entitled to a share of 57.5 percent from the divisible pool of revenues, consisting of FBR revenues. Consequently, through the transfers, FBR revenues represent almost 87 percent of the total tax revenues of the four provincial governments combined. Net of transfers, FBR revenues contribute almost 54 percent to total federal revenues. The year, 2024-25, has witnessed both positive and negative outcomes with respect to FBR revenues. Attainment of the level of revenues at Rs 11,700 billion represented a very high growth rate of 25.7 percent, with an absolute increase of as much as Rs 2,389 billion. Consequently, the FBR revenues to GDP ratio rose sharply from 8.9 percent to 10.2 percent of the GDP in 2024-25. However, there was simultaneously a big shortfall of Rs 1270 billion with respect to the budgetary target of Rs 12,970 billion, implying a big shortfall of almost 10 percent. This shortfall is attributable to an extraordinarily ambitious target growth rate in FBR revenues of 40 percent, in an economy with low growth rate of 3 percent or less. We had highlighted already at the start of 2024-25 that the 40 percent growth rate in FBR revenues was infeasible, and mini-budgets may be required. The target for 2025-26 of FBR revenues has been set at Rs 14,131 billion. In absolute terms, this represents an increase of Rs 2,431 billion and a growth rate of 20.8 percent in comparison to last year's level. This growth rate is in relation to a projected nominal GDP growth rate of 12 percent. If FBR achieves the target, then FBR revenues will rise by 1 percent of the GDP and approach 11 percent of the GDP. The two tax bases which play a key role in influencing the size and growth of FBR revenues are the growth of the large-scale manufacturing sector and of imports. The Annual Plan targets for a 3.5 percent growth rate in the former sector and a similar growth rate in the dollar value of imports. The rate of inflation is projected at 7.5 percent. At this stage, it is not clear what the extent of depreciation will be of the rupee. The large-scale manufacturing sector has exhibited a lack of buoyancy in recent years. There was actually a fall in real value added of 1.5 percent in 2024-25. Therefore, the sector will have to overcome negative factors like the already high tax burden, excessive costs of energy and credit, to be able to achieve the 3.5 percent growth rate in 2025-26. According to the PBS, the rupee value of imports increased by only 5.4 percent in 2024-25. Therefore, FBR's performance of increase in revenues of 25.7 percent must be seen as highly exceptional given the slow growth in the two major tax bases. The answer lies in the large number of budgetary taxation measures in the federal budget of 2024-25. Therefore, there is a need to assess the taxation proposals in the budget of 2025-26, which have been accepted and incorporated in the Finance Bill. The changes in income tax include an increase in the withholding tax on services from 4 percent to 6 percent. Also, the tax on profit on debt and dividends has been raised from 15 percent to 20 percent and very large pensions have been subjected to a flat 10 percent tax. The measures in sales tax include the levy on retail price of a number of items, limits on the extent of input adjustment, phased withdrawal of sales tax exemption to PATA/FATA and the addition of clause 37, whereby arrest can be made in the event of tax fraud. The last item of powers given to FBR for arrest of persons engaged in tax fraud has been strongly resisted by the private sector and needs to be reviewed on a top priority basis. There are two reductions in tax rates in the federal budget of 2025-26. The import duty structure with five duties from 0 percent to 20 percent has been brought down to four from 0 percent to 15 percent, along with big reduction in regulatory duties. The second reduction is in the personal income tax of salaried taxpayers. On the average this implies a reduction in tax liability by approximately 10 percent. 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This will hinge crucially on how the economy performs, especially in terms of the growth rate of the large-scale manufacturing sector and the extent of increase in the rupee value of imports, especially of high duty items. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

APTMA seeks 200bps policy rate cut
APTMA seeks 200bps policy rate cut

Business Recorder

timean hour ago

  • Business Recorder

APTMA seeks 200bps policy rate cut

ISLAMABAD: The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) has called on the State Bank of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to reduce the policy rate by 200 basis points from the current 11% to 9%. SBP's MPC is scheduled to hold a meeting on July 30, 2025 to review policy rates and there is speculation that a rate reduction will be in the range of 50-100 basis points. In a statement issued Monday, APTMA said, 'Maintaining the policy rate at 11% in the current economic environment results in a punitive real interest rate of 6%, one of the highest in the region. With inflation hovering around 5%, we urge the MPC to align the policy rate accordingly.' ABAD urges State Bank of Pakistan to reduce interest rate to single digit The Association pointed out that Pakistan's real interest rate significantly exceeds that of regional competitors, with India at 3.4% and China at 1.4%. APTMA warned that excessive monetary tightening is eroding the country's regional and global competitiveness, while also suppressing domestic industrial activity. 'Pakistani industries are already burdened with electricity tariffs of 12–14 cents per kWh substantially higher than the regional average of 5–9 cents and must also contend with financing costs that are nearly double those faced by regional competitors,' the statement noted. 'This, coupled with an alarming unemployment rate of 22% far higher than India's 4.2% and China's 4.6% renders the current monetary policy framework economically untenable.' APTMA further emphasized that the Federal Board of Revenue's 18% tax collection growth target is based on assumptions of expanding business activity that is being undermined by tight monetary conditions. 'The SBP's foreign exchange reserves have risen to $14.46 billion (as of July 18, 2025), but this increase is primarily driven by external borrowing rather than a boost in exports or productivity,' APTMA stated. 'Persistently high interest rates are aggravating Pakistan's debt burden, adding an estimated Rs3 trillion annually in domestic debt servicing.' The Association urged the MPC to reduce the policy rate to 9% and set a clear roadmap for lowering it further to 6% by December 31, 2025 arguing that 'these steps are essential to restore industrial competitiveness, support economic recovery, and generate employment. Pakistan has the capacity and potential for manufacturing and exports but it lacks a monetary policy aligned with national development goals.' APTMA stressed that a flexible monetary policy, paired with targeted fiscal and regulatory measures, could help address macroeconomic imbalances without stifling growth. 'The July 30 MPC decision is pivotal it will indicate whether the central bank is prepared to support economic expansion or continue a policy course that entrenches stagnation.' 'The business community calls on the MPC to prioritize productive enterprise over isolated inflation containment. We remain committed to working with all stakeholders to realize the shared goal of a dynamic and prosperous Pakistan,' the statement concluded. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

Tax-to-GDP ratio
Tax-to-GDP ratio

Business Recorder

timean hour ago

  • Business Recorder

Tax-to-GDP ratio

EDITORIAL: In the weekly briefing provided to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif by the Chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) the rise in the tax-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio by 1.5 percentage points to 10.5 percent was highlighted as a notable achievement to reach the government's target of 13 percent under its three-year reform agenda agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Three observations are critical. Total FBR collections (revised) as noted in the budget 2025–26 documents are 11,900 billion rupees in 2024-25 while the revised GDP for the year has been cited as 114,692 billion rupees which provides the tax-to-GDP ratio of 10.3 percent. One may assume that the additional 0.2 percent as claimed by the FBR chief to the Prime Minister indicated higher taxes collected than were projected in the budget documents. Be that as it may, on 1 July, the first day of fiscal 2025-26, FBR acknowledged that provisional collections were 11,722 billion rupees July-June 2025 (10.2 percent of revised GDP) instead of 11,900 billion rupees, a shortfall of 178 billion rupees, after the annual tax collection target was reduced from the budgeted 12,970 billion rupees but revised downward twice — to 12,334 billion rupees and then again to 11,900 billion rupees. Second, the 1.5 percent rise was achieved because the government failed to generate 124,160 billion rupees budgeted projection of GDP for last fiscal year with a significant shortfall of 9,468 billion rupees that can be attributed to contractionary monetary and fiscal policies, supported by the IMF, that were severely anti-growth. Had the budgeted GDP growth rate been achieved the projected tax-to-GDP ratio would have been 9.5 percent, that would have shown no rise in the tax-to-GDP ratio from 2023-24. The budget for fiscal year 2024-25 was approved by the Fund, and therefore it is unclear why the Fund agreed to a tax-to-GDP ratio which was the same as in the year before and analysts may well challenge the claim by the FBR that the rise is a component of the three-year reform agenda agreed with the Fund. What is, however, quite worrisome is that the failure to achieve the budgeted GDP growth for 2024-25 has led to not only to very high poverty levels in the country, 44.2 percent as calculated by the World Bank, but also high levels of unemployment, around 22 percent, as gleaned by independent economists from the digital housing survey of 2023. And finally, there is overwhelming empirical evidence that the government's reform efforts are focused on raising tax revenue rather than in reforming an unfair, inequitable and anomalous tax structure given that 75 to 80 percent of all FBR collections under direct taxes are being levied as withholding taxes in the sales tax mode which is an indirect tax whose incidence on the poor is greater than on the rich. Sadly, the FBR continues with this practice in spite of explicit instructions by the Auditor General of Pakistan to credit indirect taxes under the appropriate sub-heading. The focus of the incumbent government appears to be the same as during previous administrations: focus on raising total revenue rather than reforming the tax structure that is the reason behind sustained elite capture of revenue sources, the root cause of rising poverty levels. There is no doubt that the Finance Bill 2025 has increased the enforcement powers of the FBR officials, scaled down by the parliamentary committee, but even in their amended form they are being vociferously opposed by the industrial community and traders, and they are currently in abeyance. Their fate remains unclear, but to conclude one would hope that the focus of FBR shifts to amending the structure rather than to increase the burden on existing taxpayers to meet the too ambitious revenue targets. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

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