My keys to this tough-to-figure-out market and 5 stocks to buy right now

CNBC

25-06-2025

Last night, I was talking to an executive at a giant company whom I like very much. We were talking about the process of guidance and how, in this environment, it might just be better not to give any, lest you be wrong in two weeks. His company does both business-to-consumer and business-to-business worldwide. With tariffs looming, with a war going on between Israel and Iran (and one in Ukraine, don't forget), and a mercurial president, it was obvious to him that giving a forecast these days was simply a loser idea. I couldn't have agreed with him more. It just isn't worth it, especially when he might have to do a public re-forecast just weeks later because of the July tariffs and then still one more in August when China's tariffs are on the table. What a ridiculous endeavor, and, mind you, this gent is a hell of a forecaster. So, who am I to think that I can offer one? It's an intriguing dilemma, one that can only be solved by one method, recognizing that you aren't running a company but choosing a roster of franchises. Make sure each franchise is strong enough to get through a dramatic downturn, even if you don't think you will get one. Don't buy your position in the franchise all at once. Do things small until the market gives you that big fat oversold pitch like we got with so many of our stocks from the DeepSeek Chinese subterfuge in late January to President Donald Trump 's "Liberation Day" tariffs announcement in April. We take on oversold and overbought cues from the S & P Short Range Oscillator, a market momentum indicator I have trusted for decades. Currently, the market is neither, though it's tilting overbought in the wake of this week's rally. Oh, and don't take the news too seriously because the news these days depends more on who is writing and where it appears than what your eyes tell you. If someone really thinks that in a few months Iran can rebuild three nuclear facilities with fragile instruments that are buried under thousands of tons of rubble — the same people by the way who didn't even think the facilities could be effective a couple of weeks ago when they were running full speed —then who can trust what you read? Just trust the franchise. Let it dictate your thinking. Not the news of the day. Or the week, for that matter. Our job is a two-step process. First, we work hard to isolate the best franchises possible — and, second, we let the market give us some great prices. It always does eventually. We can keep our bats on our shoulders all we want, as Warren Buffett says, and if we get too eager at the plate, we could strike out. We don't swing for the fences. We just want to get on base. Everything takes care of itself if we get on base. And that's how we play it in investing and baseball. Right now, what is the market giving us that I like? What would I like to swing at if I haven't already done so? As I so often do, I will put myself in the shoes of those who just joined the Club and tell you what I would swing at. I've got five stocks I really like that are buys right now. COF YTD mountain Capital One YTD First is Capital One . I know it has just run. But the stock has only gained 15% year to date despite having just completed the most transformational banking deal of the year. Capital One right now is taking costs out of its acquisition of Discover, and I think putting together a package for potential credit card members that could be the envy of the industry. I know that Capital One currently only has about 5% of the credit card market in the U.S., and virtually nothing overseas. But it doesn't have to grow much — maybe take 1 percentage point of market share, and it can be gigantic. Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank is the dean of banking in this country — and, at 74 years of age, he has one more act in him. And, it's going to make shareholders a ton of money. It is the ideal bank to own if the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates, and that's just what it is going to do. DOV YTD mountain Dover YTD Dover is ridiculously priced. This stock was at $205 in February, and it's now around $180 — and yet all that it's done is gotten better. An industrial with 11% to 13% earnings growth, with 2% to 4% organic growth in prosaic businesses like pumps, engineered products, clean energy, identification and imaging, with 69 straight years of dividend boosts, one behind American States Water for the longest streak of all publicly traded companies. It's got terrific exposure to the data center, with a liquid cooling specialty, exactly what you need if you are going to run a lot of hot Nvidia chips. I hope it comes down lower, so we can buy more for the Club, as we have already bought some at this level. HD YTD mountain Home Depot YTD Sometimes you have to own something against the grain — betting that an event will occur that will make an ugly duckling into a swan. That's Home Depot . I have no illusions. Miserable planting season, rates too high to move, tariffs ahead of it, and ICE agents in the parking lots. What can I say, it's really ugly. But isn't that why it is down 7% for the year? Isn't that why it's down 100 points from its high? I don't want to buy Home Depot when it is running, I want to buy it when it is sitting. When the Fed starts cutting again, this stock will be a rocket. You can't get on a rocket when it is roaring. You have to get on it ahead of its departure. You have to get on now. SBUX YTD mountain Starbucks YTD Understand that when Starbucks traded down to the $70s I went out of my way to be sure that everyone here knew that it was a tremendous opportunity. So, is it still a good opportunity in the 90s? If I just joined the Club I would buy some at $90, and then wait until it traded to $85 and buy more. I don't think it will go much lower than that. I was pleasantly surprised to find out that there were multiple parties interested in taking a run at its China outfit, even as I had thought it had been decreasing in value. Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol is the most able executive in that entire industry, and those who think that this franchise is dead, let me ask you, have you been to a Starbucks lately? You will find that the thing that people told you could not be fixed — the time between order and receipt — is remarkably short now. Niccol's so impressive. This one's too big to turn overnight. But anyone who knows him from his back-from-the-dead resurrection at Chipotle can see this turn happening at Starbucks now. Don't miss it. TJX YTD mountain TJX Companies YTD Sometimes I doubt myself about things, and sometimes I know that things are priced wrong. With TJX Companies , I know it is the latter. TJX, the off-price retailer behind T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, is a company that trades on inventory, namely the inventory of other companies that aren't doing well and need to offload merchandise. The pickings have never been better for TJX — and that's why you buy it, not sell it. I have seen the dollar stores go up, Ollie's go up, Five Below go up, but TJX is stuck down there in the hole with two inferior operators: Burlington and Ross . The opportunity here is amazing because it is not going to have any of the tariff problems of almost any other retailer. After all, the places it gets merchandise from have already paid the tariff. I went over the last conference call again ahead of this talk, and all I can tell you is, while it wasn't perfect, you are paying $124 for it, not $134, where it was when it reported. I'd buy some here and buy some at $120 if it gets there. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.