QuantumScape: 40x Upside For QS Stock?

Forbes

3 days ago

GERMANY - 2024/12/20: In this photo illustration, a person is holding a smartphone with the logo of ... More US battery company QuantumScape Corporation on screen. (Photo Illustration by Timon Schneider/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
QuantumScape stock surged 75% this week following the company's announcement of a breakthrough in manufacturing. The recent advancement with the Cobra separator signifies more than just a manufacturing achievement—it positions the company as a leader in a vast market opportunity. This innovative process achieves heat treatment speeds that are 25 times faster while occupying significantly less space, addressing crucial scalability issues that have long impeded the commercialization of solid-state batteries. For more details, see our previous analysis on – QuantumScape: What's Happening With QS Stock?. This note focuses on the potential for QS stock to appreciate. However, if you're seeking an upside with a smoother experience than picking an individual stock, you might want to consider the High Quality Portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved returns greater than 91% since inception. Also, check out – BigBear.ai: What's Happening With BBAI Stock?
The Market Opportunity
The timing of QuantumScape's technological advancement coincides with remarkable growth in the U.S. electric vehicle market. BloombergNEF forecasts that U.S. passenger EV sales will grow from 1.6 million in 2024 to 4.1 million by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate exceeding 17%.
Capturing just 25% of this target market by 2030 would equate to around 1 million vehicles sold annually. With an estimated $10,000 per battery pack, this translates to a $10 billion revenue potential for QuantumScape.
The figures become even more enticing when considered through the lens of production capacity. QuantumScape is projecting a production capacity of 90 GWh in the years to come. Based on industry estimates of $120 per kWh, this capacity could yield approximately $11 billion in gross revenue.
Valuation Disconnect
The current market capitalization of QuantumScape is approximately $4 billion, presenting a notable valuation opportunity. The company is trading at merely 0.4 times its potential revenues for 2030—a significant discount for a technology leader poised to grow from nothing to over $10 billion in revenue within a few years.
High-growth technology firms usually command revenue multiples ranging from 15 to 30 times during periods of rapid expansion. Historical examples such as Zoom, Shopify, and Snowflake have been valued at multiples between 50 and 200 during peak growth phases. While Tesla reached a peak valuation multiple of 30, it has lately come down to nearly 10x. Even applying a conservative revenue multiple of 15x to QuantumScape's projected $10 billion in revenue for 2030 suggests a potential valuation of $150 billion—around 40 times current levels.
Competitive Advantages
QuantumScape's technology provides significant advantages over traditional lithium-ion batteries: quicker charging, extended range, improved safety, and greater longevity. The company's collaboration with PowerCo offers a direct pathway to mass production via Volkswagen's established automotive supply chain, thus mitigating the commercialization risks typically associated with emerging battery technologies.
The Cobra manufacturing breakthrough specifically targets the industry's two largest challenges: production scalability and cost efficiency. This technological advantage may prove hard for competitors to duplicate quickly, potentially solidifying QuantumScape's early market dominance.
Risk Considerations
Despite the compelling upside case, investors need to consider significant risks. The complexity of manufacturing remains considerable—achieving gigawatt-hour production introduces numerous technical challenges that extend beyond the Cobra process. The company is also up against fierce competition from well-capitalized adversaries such as Toyota, Samsung, and LG Chem, all of which possess established manufacturing capabilities and supply chain networks.
QuantumScape's strong reliance on the PowerCo partnership poses concentration risk, while the company's annual operating losses of $517 million and its pre-revenue status necessitate continued access to capital. Historically, the market adoption of new battery technologies tends to proceed more slowly than anticipated, which could postpone revenue generation.
Technical risks persist regarding the validation of real-world performance at scale, cost competitiveness with existing lithium-ion technologies, and the security of supply chains for the specialized materials needed for mass production.
Investment Verdict
The investment case for QuantumScape revolves around asymmetric risk-reward dynamics. While the execution risks are considerable, the company's current valuation seems to fully discount the possibility of success. The intersection of groundbreaking manufacturing technology, substantial market growth, and solid commercialization partnerships creates a highly favorable scenario that far outweighs the existing market valuation.
For investors prepared to accept the risks associated with development stages, QuantumScape offers exposure to potentially transformative battery technology at what appears to be a considerable valuation discount relative to its long-term revenue prospects. Nevertheless, it is vital for investors to thoughtfully weigh these risks as well. Now, we implement a risk assessment framework while constructing the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, featuring a collection of 30 stocks that has a strong track record of outperforming the S&P 500 over the last four years. Why is that? Collectively, HQ Portfolio stocks have offered better returns with lower risk compared to the benchmark index; a smoother ride, as demonstrated in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.