US-China Truce 'Dramatically' Reduces Recession Odds: Lazar
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
9 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Global gold demand up 3% in second quarter as investment jumps, WGC says
LONDON (Reuters) -Global gold demand including over-the-counter (OTC) trading rose by 3% year-on-year to 1,248.8 metric tons in the second quarter of 2025 as investment jumped 78%, the World Gold Council said on Thursday. Spot gold prices are up 26% so far this year after hitting a record $3,500 per troy ounce in April as uncertain global trade policy and geopolitical turbulence fuelled inflows into safe-haven assets. Invest in Gold Priority Gold: Up to $15k in Free Silver + Zero Account Fees on Qualifying Purchase American Hartford Gold: #1 Precious Metals Dealer in the Nation Thor Metals Group: Best Overall Gold IRA Demand for gold bars rose 21% in the second quarter, offsetting a continuing slump in demand for coins, said the WGC, an industry body whose members are global gold miners. Physically backed gold exchange-traded funds recorded their largest semi-annual inflow since the first half of 2020 from January to June, the WGC said earlier in July. Global gold jewellery consumption, the main category of physical demand, fell 14% to 341.0 tons, the lowest level since the pandemic-swept third quarter of 2020, as the high prices deterred buyers. "Much of the decline came from China and India, whose combined market share fell below 50% for only the third time in the last five years," the WGC said. Central banks, another major source of gold demand, reduced purchases by 21% to 166.5 tons in the second quarter, the WGC calculated, based on reported purchases and an estimate of unreported buying. On the supply front, recycling added 4% to 347.2 tons in the second quarter, but remained relatively subdued despite record prices, as Indian consumers opted to exchange old jewellery for new, or to pledge it as collateral against loans. The WGC downgraded its estimate of this year's gold purchases by central banks, adding that the longer-term trend of central banks reallocating from the U.S. assets to gold remains intact. Gold ETFs have further upside potential in the second half of this year with retail investment due to soften modestly, the WGC added. Gold supply and demand by WGC*: Q2'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q2'25 change y/y % TOTAL SUPPLY 1,210.0 1,174.5 1,248.8 3 Mine production 896.2 833.0 908.6 1 Net producer hedging -20.4 -7.1 -7.1 Total mine supply 875.8 825.9 901.5 3 Recycled gold 334.2 348.5 347.2 4 TOTAL DEMAND 1,210.0 1,174.5 1,248.8 3 Jewellery fabrication: 417.2 425.4 356.7 -14 - Jewellery consumption 395.6 383.4 341.0 -14 - Jewellery inventory 21.6 42.0 15.7 -27 Technology: 80.2 80.4 78.6 -2 - Electronics 66.8 67.0 65.8 -2 - Other industrial 11.1 11.3 10.8 -3 - Dentistry 2.3 2.1 2.1 -9 Investment: 268.1 551.2 477.2 78 - Total bar and coin: 275.2 324.6 306.8 11 of which bars 200.2 257.7 243.1 21 of which official coins 49.6 44.3 38.9 -22 of which medals 25.4 22.7 24.8 -3 - ETFs/similar products -7.1 226.6 170.5 Central banks/institutions 211.5 248.6 166.5 -21 Gold demand 977.0 1,305.6 1,079.0 10 OTC and other 233.0 -131.2 169.8 -27 LBMA gold price ($/oz) 2,338.2 2,859.6 3,280.4 40 *Source: Metals Focus, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
9 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump tariffs rattle India's markets, cloud growth outlook
By Jaspreet Kalra, Nikunj Ohri and Bharath Rajeswaran MUMBAI (Reuters) -India's rupee plunged toward a record low and equity indexes declined on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump slapped steeper-than-expected tariffs on Indian goods, with analysts warning of sustained pressure on the country's growth. The 25% tariffs announced could shave off the South Asian nation's growth in 2025-26 by up to 40 basis points, with the threat of additional penalties further clouding the outlook, economists said. India's benchmark equity indices, the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex, fell about 0.6% each, while the rupee declined to an over five-month low of 87.74 before paring losses amid likely dollar-selling intervention by the central bank. The rupee is within touching distance of the record low of 87.95 it hit in February. "88.00 looms as a big level on the charts and likely a focus for RBI as well," said Brad Bechtel, head of global FX at Jefferies. "Will be interesting to see if they allow the currency to depreciate through that level to offset the impact of tariffs or if they fight to maintain currency 'stability'. I think they let it go through, in which case 90 becomes a big level to watch." IMPACT ON GROWTH AND INVESTMENT Analysts warned that a dent to New Delhi's manufacturing ambitions could hamper growth in the world's fifth-largest economy. "If these tariffs remain in place, they could undermine India's growing appeal to businesses seeking trade diversion in low-value-added manufacturing sectors," said Raphael Luescher, Co-Head of EM equities at Vontobel. Goldman Sachs economist Santanu Sengupta estimated a 30-bps hit to growth once the tariffs are imposed, adding that "elevated policy uncertainty in the U.S. can cause Indian firms, particularly those exposed to U.S. tariffs, to postpone investment decisions." However, DBS Bank said downside risks are likely to be offset by fiscal support for labour-intensive industries and smaller exporting firms, alongside further rate cuts. "Despite limited tariff arbitrage, we are still of the view that the economy will continue to benefit from trade diversion flows as manufacturers diversify and derisk from other production bases, including China," DBS economists wrote. GEOPOLITICAL BALANCING ACT Alison Shimada, head of Total Emerging Markets Equity at Allspring Global Investments, said the direct macroeconomic impact may be limited given India's exports to the U.S. account for just 2–3% of GDP. But she noted that "India wishes to maintain constructive trade relations with both Russia and the U.S.," and could consider increasing imports from the U.S. to ease tensions. "The stock market may react negatively in the short term as the INR is depreciating on the back of this news," Shimada added. "However, there is a level of scepticism in the markets until the final agreements are released. Therefore, fundamentals will remain a key focus since India earnings season is ongoing." The Indian government expects the economy to grow at 6.3%–6.8% in 2025–26. (Additional reporting by Chandini Monappa and Vivek Kumar M, writing by Swati Bhat, editing by Saad Sayeed)
Yahoo
9 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump announces 25% tariff on India and unspecified penalties for buying Russian oil
WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States will impose a 25% tariff on goods from India, plus an additional import tax because of India's purchasing of Russian oil, President Donald Trump said Wednesday. The new tariffs were part of a flurry of trade activity that included a series of executive actions regarding Brazil, copper and shipments of goods worth less than $800, as well as a reduced 15% tax on imports from South Korea, including its autos. It was all a prelude to Friday when Trump's new tariff regime is scheduled to start, an event the White House has portrayed as a testament to Trump's negotiating skills even as concerns persist about the taxes hurting growth and increasing inflationary pressures. India 'is our friend,' Trump said on his Truth Social platform announcing the taxes, but its tariffs on U.S. products 'are far too high.' The Republican president added India buys military equipment and oil from Russia, enabling Moscow's war in Ukraine. As a result, he intends to charge an additional 'penalty' starting on Friday as part of the launch of his administration's revised tariffs on multiple countries. Trump told reporters on Wednesday the two countries were still in the middle of negotiations on trade despite the tariffs slated to begin in a few days. 'We're talking to India now," the president said. "We'll see what happens.' The Indian government said Wednesday it's studying the implications of Trump's tariffs announcement. India and the U.S. have been engaged in negotiations on concluding a 'fair, balanced and mutually beneficial' bilateral trade agreement over the last few months, and New Delhi remains committed to that objective, India's Trade Ministry said in a statement. Trump on Wednesday also signed separate orders to tax imports of copper at 50% and justify his 50% tariffs on Brazil due to their criminal prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro and treatment of U.S. social media companies. Trump also signed an order saying that government now had the systems in place to close the tariff loophole on 'de minimis' shipments, which had enabled goods priced under $800 to enter America duty-free, largely from China. The South Korea agreement will impose a 15% tariff, instead of the 25% Trump had threatened. South Korea would also buy $100 billion in energy resources from the U.S. and provide $350 billion for 'investments owned and controlled by the United States, and selected by myself, as president,' Trump said. There is also an agreement with Pakistan that includes the development of its oil reserves. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent briefed Trump on trade talks with China. Trump's view on tariffs Trump's announcement comes after a slew of negotiated trade frameworks with the European Union, Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia — all of which he said would open markets for American goods while enabling the U.S. to raise tax rates on imports. The president views tariff revenues as a way to help offset the budget deficit increases tied to his recent income tax cuts and generate more domestic factory jobs. While Trump has effectively wielded tariffs as a cudgel to reset the terms of trade, the economic impact is uncertain as most economists expect a slowdown in U.S. growth and greater inflationary pressures as some of the costs of the taxes are passed along to domestic businesses and consumers. There's also the possibility of more tariffs coming on trade partners with Russia as well as on pharmaceutical drugs and computer chips. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer would announce the Russia-related tariff rates on India at a later date. Tariffs face European pushback Trump's approach of putting a 15% tariff on America's long-standing allies in the EU is also generating pushback, possibly causing European partners as well as Canada to seek alternatives to U.S. leadership on the world stage. French President Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday in the aftermath of the trade framework that Europe 'does not see itself sufficiently' as a global power, saying in a cabinet meeting that negotiations with the U.S. will continue as the agreement gets formalized. 'To be free, you have to be feared,' Macron said. 'We have not been feared enough. There is a greater urgency than ever to accelerate the European agenda for sovereignty and competitiveness.' Seeking a deeper partnership with India Washington has long sought to develop a deeper partnership with New Delhi, which is seen as a bulwark against China. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has established a good working relationship with Trump, and the two leaders are likely to further boost cooperation between their countries. When Trump in February met with Modi, the U.S. president said that India would start buying American oil and natural gas. The new tariffs on India could complicate its goal of doubling bilateral trade with the U.S. to $500 billion by 2030. The two countries have had five rounds of negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement. While U.S. has been seeking greater market access and zero tariff on almost all its exports, India has expressed reservations on throwing open sectors such as agriculture and dairy, which employ a bulk of the country's population for livelihood, Indian officials said. The Census Bureau reported that the U.S. ran a $45.8 billion trade imbalance in goods with India last year, meaning it imported more than it exported. At a population exceeding 1.4 billion people, India is the world's largest country and a possible geopolitical counterbalance to China. India and Russia have close relations, and New Delhi has not supported Western sanctions on Moscow over its war in Ukraine. The new tariffs could put India at a disadvantage in the U.S. market relative to Vietnam, Bangladesh and, possibly, China, said Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations. 'We are back to square one as Trump hasn't spelled out what the penalties would be in addition to the tariff,' Sahai said. 'The demand for Indian goods is bound to be hit.' ___ Roy reported from New Delhi. Associated Press writers Samuel Petrequin in Paris, and Darlene Superville and Seung Min Kim in Washington contributed to this report. Josh Boak And Rajesh Roy, The Associated Press Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
