Air cargo shipments from Asia to US slump

The Sun

18 hours ago

SHANGHAI: Air cargo shipment volume from Asia has declined by double digits since the US cancelled a tax exemption for low-value packages from China early in May, trade groups and analysts said.
Air cargo demand from Asia to North America declined 10.7% in May versus the same month a year earlier, showed data from the International Air Transport Asso-ciation (IATA), illustrating 'the dampening effect of shifting US trade policies,' IATA director-general Willie Walsh said in a report published on Monday.
Shipments valued under US$800 (RM3,375) – often sent by air to US customers of low-cost e-commerce platforms such as Shein and PDD's Temu – fall under the so-called de minimis, or too-small-to-matter, tax exemption.
Since May 2, shipments sent from China and Hong Kong have been taxed at a rate initially as high as 145% before settling to as low as 30% after a mid-May trade detente between the US and China.
The pair continue to negotiate on trade, with the US relaxing export restrictions on software, ethane and aerospace to China this week, ahead of July 9 when the US plans to re-impose a range of steep tariffs targeting multiple countries.
The volume of low-value e-commerce shipments from China to the US in May saw a particularly steep decline, industry experts said.
Such shipments fell 43% in May from the previous month, showed estimates from air cargo consultancy Aevean, but rose to other main export markets including Europe and South-east Asia.
It is not clear whether such dramatic declines will continue, said Aevean managing director Marco Bloemen, given businesses had anticipated the de minimis halt and because the tariff rate was lowered mid-month.
'Will those e-commerce players bounce back to the US now they're paying 30% duties instead of zero duties?' Bloemen said. Firms turning to other markets due to US trade policy uncertainty is also likely weighing on shipment volume, he said.
'That's a trend that we're expecting to continue – there's more Europe-destined e-commerce ex-pected in the month of June, also to markets like Latin America.'
Air cargo consultancy Rotate said e-commerce platforms were focusing on other markets to replace lost US demand, with significant export growth to the European Union and Asia-Pacific region.
Shein and PDD did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.
Low-value e-commerce out of Asia has been taking an increasing proportion of global air freight and boosting airlines' cargo businesses.
Last year such shipments – at 1.2 million metric tons – made up 55% of goods shipped from China to the US by air compared to just 5% in 2018, Aevean data showed.
As Asia-to-US demand fell in May, airlines pulled freighter aircraft off trans-Pacific routes and placed them elsewhere, industry experts said.
Some of that demand has now returned as firms take advantage of tariff pauses between the US and a number of countries, but flight fre-quencies are reduced, they said.
'Some of the larger players that were chartering three flights a week have cut back to two,' said e-commerce consultancy Cirrus Global Advisors.
Direct freighter capacity between China and the US in June was 11% lower compared to March, wiping out growth in capacity over the past year on those lanes, Rotate data showed.
Asia-focused freight forwarder Dimerco Express reported a significant decline in its e-commerce bookings, estimating a 50% drop in both May and June. This sharp decrease in demand has led to on-going cancellations of scheduled freighter flights, as the firm faces logistical challenges and adjusts its operations in response to the weaker market conditions, according to their latest report.
The de minimis rule, which dates to 1938, had been a target of criticism from American lawmakers as a loophole that lets Chinese products skirt US tariffs and allows illegal drugs and precursors to make opioid fentanyl to enter the US unscreened. – Reuters