NASCAR Predictions for Dover: Cup Series Winner, In-Season Challenge Final 4 Picks
Let's dive into our NASCAR predictions for Sunday's Cup Series race at Dover Motor Speedway.
Challenge Round of 4: Ty Dillon over John Hunter Nemechek
Ty Dillon feels inevitable at this point. No one expected the lowest-seeded driver to make it out of Round 1, but a wreck took out Denny Hamlin. In Round 2, a crash at the Chicago Street Race took out Brad Keselowski and allowed Dillon to automatically advance. Then at Sonoma, Dillon bumped Alex Bowman to slip past his competitor to punch his ticket to the Round of 4. We're not betting against fate at this point. John Hunter Nemechek hasn't been particularly great at Dover anyway, so both the numbers and destiny suggest that Dillon's cinderella story continues.
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Challenge Round of 4: Ty GIbbs takes out Tyler Reddick
This is much more the caliber of matchup people expected when the NASCAR In-Season Challenge seedings were revealed. Tyler Reddick and Ty Gibbs have both earned their way here, and they aren't just battling for the $1 million prize—there is also a playoff spot up for grabs. Gibbs is coming off consecutive top-10 finishes and has posted the second-best average finishing position (8.5) over the last six races. Notably, Gibbs also boasts a better average finishing position than Reddick (11.5 to 14.5) in the Cup Series at Dover Motor Speedway. Both drivers will finish inside the top 16, but Gibbs (13th) edges out Reddick (15th) to advance.
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Ross Chastain wins a stage
Ross Chastain didn't have the car to win at Sonoma Raceway, so his team played for the Stage 1 win and got a playoff point out of it. While he'll be more of a factor in the finish on Sunday at Dover, the No. 1 car will still fall well short of reaching victory lane. However, Chastain will deliver his second consecutive week with a stage win, giving him 10 stage points and the all-important playoff point.
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Shane van Gisbergen finishes outside the top 25
It now feels like there is a portion of NASCAR fans who are waiting for Shane van Gisbergen to fail on ovals. That's what winning three races in the last five weeks and blowing away the competition on road courses will do to the fan bases of your competitors. SVG has made real strides on ovals this season, more consistently working into the top 20 late in races. However, this is his first trip to Dover Motor Speedway in the Cup Series, and that will come with its own adjustments. He'll finish outside the top 25, which will be only the second time that's happened since Talladega.
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Kyle Larson rebounds from a tough stretch with a top-5 finish
It's been a pretty rough summer for Kyle Larson, at least by his standards, and he hasn't seemed quite right since his attempt at 'The Double' ended in a pair of wrecks. The turnaround is coming on Sunday. Larson is going to turn an outstanding starting position into a stage win, which he will then carry over into his first top-five finish since Michigan. When all is said and done, Larson will walk away with the highest points total from Sunday's race at Dover.
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Kyle Busch snags a top-10 finish, delivers strong points day
The winless streak for Kyle Busch is closing in on 80 starts. Unfortunately for the No. 8 team, we don't see him snapping it on Sunday. While that means he'll still be battling for a playoff spot based on points, Sunday's EchoPark Automotive 400 will get him a little closer. Coming off consecutive top-10 finishes with 76 total points, Busch will make it three consecutive weeks and add 30-plus points to his total, narrowing the gap between him and Bubba Wallace.
Denny Hamlin wins again at Dover Motor Speedway
There might not be a driver happier to be headed to Dover than Denny Hamlin. He won the Würth 400 last year, marking his second top-five finish in three races at the track in the Next Gen era. The No. 11 car has also been performing exceptionally well in qualifying on ovals lately, delivering three consecutive top-three starting positions from Nashville through Pocono. Hamlin has always said that a great qualifying effort is usually a strong sign that he has a higher-than-average shot at winning. He'll be near the top of the starting grid on Sunday, turning it into his fourth win of the season.
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Better EV Stock: Alphabet vs. Tesla (Hint: Robotaxis Are the Key)
Key Points The future of the auto industry lies in electric vehicles and ridesharing in autonomous vehicles. After many years in service, Waymo still can't point to a timeline of profitability. Tesla also faces challenges with its robotaxi offering, but it's well positioned, provided it can demonstrate safety and efficacy. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) isn't, strictly speaking, an electric vehicle (EV) company. However, its autonomous driving technology company, Waymo, is committed to only using EVs in its fleet. Funnily enough, it could be argued that Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) isn't really a pure EV company either. After all, most of its sky–high valuation is attributable to the potential of its robotaxis. However, the comparison of these two as EV companies is valid because the future of the auto industry is EVs, and ridesharing in autonomous vehicles will be a larger part of the industry in the future. But which company is better placed, and which is the better stock? Alphabet vs. Tesla It's entirely possible that Alphabet could decide to spin off Waymo, not least because it reportedly could be valued at more than $45 billion. Meanwhile, one of Tesla's biggest supporters, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest, ascribes 88% of Tesla's enterprise value (market cap plus net debt) to robotaxis in its investment case for the stock, producing an expected value of $2,600 for the stock in 2029. As I have previously discussed, the Ark targets should be taken with a pinch of salt, as its track record on Tesla hasn't been good. However, Ark's core argument is sound and points to Tesla being potentially a far more valuable stock than Waymo ever will be. Pathways to profitability The core argument is that Tesla's business model is scalable to profitability while Waymo's is far less so. The issue of Waymo's profitability arose in a recent CNBC interview with Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana, where she was asked whether Waymo is profitable. She replied, "We're proving out that it can be a profitable business." When asked when Waymo would be profitable, she replied, "not clear." It's also not clear if Alphabet/Waymo doesn't have an internal forecast for when it will hit profitability, or if Mawakana preferred not to divulge what the company considers an uncertain forecast. However, it's inconceivable that Alphabet is not internally crunching the numbers on this, and if it does decide to spin off Waymo, it's a question that needs to be answered. The point here is that a business that can't be profitable isn't worth anything, let alone $45 billion, so at some point, its management is going to have to set some timelines. Tesla and timelines Whereas investors need to hear more about timelines from Waymo, whose public self-driving ride-hailing service was launched in 2018, there's probably a need for fewer declared timelines from Tesla, or, rather, a need for more accurate ones. For example, in 2019, CEO Elon Musk famously told investors to expect a million self-driving vehicles on the road by mid-2020. In April 2022, he also stated that Tesla aspired to reach volume production of a dedicated robotaxi (Cybercab) in 2024 -- a timeline that has now been pushed back to 2026. These timeline estimates matter because plugging overly optimistic assumptions from them into valuation models can produce dramatically erroneous conclusions. Why Tesla is better positioned With all that said, Tesla has clear advantages over Waymo, provided it can demonstrate safety and reliability and achieve regulatory approvals. Its advantages include: Lower vehicle costs, with Musk aiming for a $30,000 price tag for a dedicated robotaxi, the Cybercab. Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts estimate Waymo's current vehicles cost more than $120,000. In addition, Tesla manufactures its own cars (Waymo does not), and existing Teslas can be converted into robotaxis using Tesla's as-yet-unreleased-to-the-public unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) software, giving Tesla a significant advantage in scaling the robotaxi business. Tesla's use of camera-centric technology is inherently less expensive than Waymo's combination of cameras, light detection and ranging (Lidar) lasers, and high-definition maps. Every Tesla car (robotaxi or not) on the road is effectively a data gatherer, with the data used to improve the AI that powers its AI models. As such, even though Waymo was first, Tesla has significantly more data than Waymo. Which is the better EV stock? 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Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $636,628!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,063,471!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,041% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 183% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 21, 2025 Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Better EV Stock: Alphabet vs. Tesla (Hint: Robotaxis Are the Key) was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio
