logo
Oil sanctions: What can India do without Russian crude?

Oil sanctions: What can India do without Russian crude?

Time of India6 days ago
After Western nations imposed sanctions on Russia and stopped buying its oil due to its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia's heavily discounted oil started flooding India, helping
India
keep inflation in check and economy stable amid all the global turbulence. India relies on imports to meet more than 85% of its crude oil needs. While the Middle East was historically the main supplier, Russia has taken the lead in the past three years. But now India's steady supply of cheap Russian oil is under serious threat.
Frustrated with Russian President
Vladimir Putin
's double game of unabated attacks on Ukraine while appearing to be ready for a peace deal, US President Donald
Trump
announced early this week sanctions on buyers of Russian oil unless Russia agrees to a peace deal. Trump's threat of sanctions came with a 50-day grace period. 'We're very, very unhappy with (Russia). And we're going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don't have a (Ukraine peace) deal in 50 days. Tariffs at about 100%, you'd call them secondary tariffs,' Trump said on Monday.
NATO
secretary general Mark Rutte also threatened India, China and Brazil with 100% secondary sanctions if they continue doing business with Russia, even as he urged the leaders of these countries to press Putin to take peace talks with Ukraine seriously. Meanwhile, Senator Lindsey Graham is pushing for the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, a bipartisan legislative proposal that threatens an unprecedented 500% tariff on all US imports from countries that buy Russian oil, gas, petrochemicals or uranium.
Explore courses from Top Institutes in
Select a Course Category
Artificial Intelligence
MCA
Data Science
Data Analytics
PGDM
Leadership
Management
Cybersecurity
healthcare
Healthcare
Public Policy
MBA
Finance
Digital Marketing
Design Thinking
Data Science
Degree
CXO
others
Product Management
Project Management
Operations Management
Others
Technology
Skills you'll gain:
Duration:
7 Months
S P Jain Institute of Management and Research
CERT-SPJIMR Exec Cert Prog in AI for Biz India
Starts on
undefined
Get Details
Secondary tariffs mean that countries engaged in trade with Russia would face a 100% tariff when exporting goods to the US. India and China are the top two buyers of Russian oil. Earlier, India had to yield to Trump's oil sanctions when it stopped buying oil from Iran in 2019 after Trump, during his previous term as president, threatened secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil.
Can India continue buying Russian oil?
Petroleum and Natural Gas of India Hardeep Singh Puri on Thursday said India is unfazed by US sanction threats as oil markets remain well supplied, adding that the prices will come down. Commenting on the threat of secondary sanctions, the minister said, "Russia is 10 per cent of global production. We have the analysis that if Russia were not included, the prices would have gone to 130 dollars a barrel. Even Turkey, China, Brazil and even the EU have bought oil and gas from Russia." Last week, the minister had said India's continued purchase of crude oil from Russia helped stabilise energy prices globally, and halting oil trade from Russia would have spiralled crude prices to over $120-130 per barrel. "I'm not worried at all. If something happens, we'll deal with it," Puri has said.
Live Events
You Might Also Like:
'Double standards': India claps back at NATO over sanctions warning on Russia oil deals
'There are two possibilities: one, the whole world consumes 10% less — which means some people won't get heating in winter; some won't get air conditioning in summer; some of the transport will stop flying,' Puri said. 'Or, you start buying more from the remaining 90% (suppliers). You know what that would do to prices? The prices would skyrocket,' he said.
Puri's comments indicate threats made by Trump and Nato of secondary sanctions may after all just be a negotiating tactic with Russia. As per a recent ET report, people familiar with the matter say that some NATO member states and European countries that have imposed sanctions against Russia continue to purchase Russian oil via third countries. The
European Union
plans to completely stop the import of Russian gas by 2027, but many nations still remain dependent on Russian gas and refined oil, they said, pointing out that in 2024, 18% of the EU's natural gas imports came from Russia.
Is Trump bluffing?
The oil market barely reacted to Trump's threats of secondary sanctions on Tuesday, with Brent trading around $69 per barrel, similar to levels seen over the past week. As per an ET report, refinery executives said if implemented, the proposed tariff could effectively shut Russia out of the global oil market, pushing prices to $120 per barrel or more, derailing Trump's own low-energy-price agenda and fuelling global inflation. Russia exports about 4.5–5.0 million barrels per day (mbd) of crude oil, roughly 5% of total global demand. In addition, it exports about 2 mbd of refined products.
Conversely, if India and China were targeted with 100% tariffs for continuing to buy Russian oil, the resulting spike in US import costs from these countries could burden American consumers and prove politically difficult for Trump to manage, executives said. 'This whole tariff game is about Trump trying to strike deals with countries, including Russia, not about disrupting energy trade or dealing with high inflation at home,' an executive told ET. Another executive said Trump's warning was just a ploy to induce seriousness in negotiations with Russia, whose leader Vladimir Putin has been following a dual-track strategy—engaging with Trump over the phone and talking of a peace deal, while simultaneously hammering Ukraine with an increasing barrage of missiles and drones.
You Might Also Like:
Oil executives brush aside Trump's tariff threat on Russian crude
How India can manage without Russian oil
If it really comes down to secondary sanctions, as threatened by Trump and Nato's Rutte, how will India manage without Russian oil which is now more than 33% of India's total oil imports? According to a Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) analysis, since the ban on Russian oil, China has bought 47% of Russia's crude exports, followed by India (38%), the EU (6%), and Turkiye (6%). In FY22, Russia made up just 2.1% of India's oil imports. Come financial year 2024-25, Russia's share in India's value of oil imports is a staggering 35.1%.
In FY22, India bought $2,256 million of Russian oil - three years later that number stands at a whopping $50,285 million. India's oil imports from Russia rose marginally in the first half of this year, with private refiners
Reliance Industries Ltd
and Nayara Energy making almost half of the overall purchases from Moscow, according to data provided by sources to Reuters. India, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, received about 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil in January-June this year, up 1% from a year ago, the data showed.
Indian refiners expect that any move by Trump is unlikely to disrupt oil supplies but could wipe out the thinning discount on Russian crude, as traditional and new suppliers ramp up output, refinery officials told Reuters.
Since secondary tariffs will apply to the whole country and affect all merchandise exports, unlike the scenario where only the entities doing business with sanctioned Russian entities are penalised, India will find it tough to continue buying Russian oil because sanctions will weigh heavier than the advantage India gets from buying Russian oil on which discount has now thinned.
Indian refiners will have no other way than pivot towards its traditional West Asian suppliers and new players such as Brazil to make up for lost Russian supplies. These new barrels will, however, come at a higher cost, ranging around $4-5/barrel. Arranging alternative supplies will not be difficult, as 'there is enough energy available in the world,' according to oil minister Puri. 'Oil prices are still between $65 and $70,' he said.
India is already diversifying its oil imports. Puri said that India has broadened its oil import network. India has diversified the sources of supplies from 27 to 40 countries now, he said. Data from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed India's crude imports from the US surged more than 50 per cent in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, a sign that Indian refiners are once again warming up to non-OPEC sources. Shipments from Brazil saw the sharpest rise, growing 80 per cent year-on-year to 73,000 bpd from 41,000 bpd.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Judge weighing disciplinary referral for DOJ lawyers in Venezuela deportations case
Judge weighing disciplinary referral for DOJ lawyers in Venezuela deportations case

Hindustan Times

time16 minutes ago

  • Hindustan Times

Judge weighing disciplinary referral for DOJ lawyers in Venezuela deportations case

By Jan Wolfe Judge weighing disciplinary referral for DOJ lawyers in Venezuela deportations case WASHINGTON, - U.S. District Judge James Boasberg said on Thursday he may initiate disciplinary proceedings against Justice Department lawyers for their conduct in a lawsuit brought by Venezuelans challenging their removal to a Salvadoran prison in March. Boasberg, a prominent Washington, D.C., judge who has drawn President Donald Trump's ire, said during a court hearing that a recent whistleblower complaint had strengthened the argument that Trump administration officials engaged in criminal contempt of court by failing to turn around deportation flights. Boasberg also raised the prospect of referring Justice Department lawyers to state bar associations, which have the authority to discipline unethical conduct by attorneys. "I will certainly be assessing whether government counsel's conduct and veracity to the court warrant a referral to state bars or our grievance committee, which determines lawyers' fitness to practice in our court," Boasberg said. A Justice Department spokesperson declined to comment. Boasberg has been hearing an American Civil Liberties Union lawsuit brought on behalf of alleged Venezuelan gang members removed from the U.S. under a rarely invoked 18th-century law. The detainees in the case were returned to Venezuela last week as part of a prisoner exchange, after spending four months in El Salvador's CECOT prison. The migrants' lawyers have disputed the gang membership claims and said their clients were not given a chance to contest the government's assertions. Boasberg said in April that the Trump administration appeared to have acted 'in bad faith' when it hurriedly assembled three deportation flights on March 15 at the same time that he was conducting emergency court proceedings to assess the legality of the effort. In court filings, Justice Department lawyers have disputed that they disobeyed a court order, saying remarks Boasberg made from the bench were not legally binding. In a 2-1 order, a federal appeals court in April temporarily paused Boasberg's effort to further investigate whether the Trump administration engaged in criminal contempt. Boasberg said during Thursday's hearing that the delay from the appeals court was frustrating for the plaintiffs, and that a whistleblower complaint from Erez Reuveni, a former Justice Department attorney who was fired in April, strengthened the case for contempt. Reuveni described three separate incidents when Justice Department leaders defied court orders related to the deportation of immigrants living in the country illegally. Attorney General Pam Bondi, in a post on X, called Reuveni a "disgruntled employee" and a "leaker." This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.

Iran says open to nuclear talks only if US rebuilds trust
Iran says open to nuclear talks only if US rebuilds trust

First Post

time16 minutes ago

  • First Post

Iran says open to nuclear talks only if US rebuilds trust

Iran is open to nuclear talks with the US if Washington takes steps to restore trust, a senior diplomat said. The statement comes before a crucial EU meeting following a ceasefire and US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities read more Iran is willing to negotiate its nuclear program with the United States, but only if Washington makes genuine efforts to re-establish trust, a top Iranian diplomat said Thursday, ahead of a major meeting with European officials. The conference will be the first since a truce was agreed upon during Israel's 12-day war against Iran in June, during which US B-52 bombers targeted nuclear-related sites in Iran. Iranian officials will participate in the talks alongside representatives from the E3 countries, which include Britain, France, and Germany, as well as Kaja Kallas, the head of the European Union's foreign policy. In May, a similar meeting had taken place in the Turkish city. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iran's conditions Iran's deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, stated on social media on Thursday that Tehran would ask that 'several key principles' be respected in talks with the United States. These include 'rebuilding Iran's trust — as Iran has absolutely no trust in the United States,' he said, adding that there was no place 'for hidden agendas such as military action, though Iran remains fully prepared for any scenario.' Washington would have to accept and recognise Iran's rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which include the freedom to enrich uranium 'in line with its legitimate needs' and the removal of severe economic sanctions against Iran. The talks in Istanbul will be held at the deputy ministerial level, with Iran sending Majid Takht-e Ravanchi, the other of Iran's two deputy foreign ministers. A show of strength Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a televised interview Thursday that Tehran would not back down from uranium enrichment. Before the war in June, Iran was enriching uranium up to 60% — a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels. 'Our enrichment will continue, and we will not give up this right of the Iranian people,' Araghchi said in a video posted on the state TV's Telegram channel. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iran's top diplomat said the Istanbul talks with the European parties are necessary, especially after the 12-day war, to make them aware that Iran's positions remain strong. 'The world must know that there has been no change in our stance,' he said. 'We will continue to firmly defend the rights of the Iranian people to peaceful nuclear energy, especially regarding enrichment.' Araghchi also said that Iran has always been ready to advance its peaceful program within a reasonable and logical framework. 'We have never hesitated to build trust with countries that may have concerns,' he said, 'but at the same time, Iran's demand is that its right to peaceful nuclear energy, including enrichment, be respected.' High stakes European leaders have threatened to trigger a 'snapback' mechanism included in a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which would reimpose sanctions that were lifted in exchange for Iran accepting restrictions and monitoring of its nuclear program. The United Kingdom, France and Germany were signatories to the 2015 deal. The US withdrew in 2018 during the first term of President Donald Trump, who insisted the agreement wasn't tough enough. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iranian officials have warned that a move to reimpose sanctions would have consequences. Gharibabadi said earlier this week that it could force Tehran to withdraw from key non-proliferation agreements. In a letter to U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, Araghchi accused the E3 of hypocrisy, saying they failed to uphold their obligations under the 2015 deal while supporting Israel's recent strikes on Iran. In last month's conflict, Iran responded to Israeli and US strikes with missile attacks, including a strike on a US base in Qatar, which Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian insisted was not directed at the Qatari state. In an interview with Al Jazeera that aired on Wednesday, Pezeshkian said Iran is prepared for another war and accused Israel of attempting to assassinate him during a June 15 meeting of Iran's national security council in Tehran. Pezeshkian reiterated that Iran's nuclear program will continue within the framework of international law and insisted the country has no intention of pursuing nuclear weapons. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'Our nuclear capabilities are in the minds of our scientists,' he said, emphasizing Iran's position that future negotiations must be rooted in mutual respect, not threats. The aftermath of war According to Iran's official judicial news agency Mizan, at least 13 Iranian nuclear scientists were killed during the June Israel-Iran war. The extent of the damage to Iran's nuclear sites from the war has not been publicly revealed but a spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said Thursday the country's nuclear industry would recover. 'Our nuclear industry is deeply rooted. What has roots cannot be harmed by attack or pressure — it will grow back and thrive again,' state TV quoted Behrouz Kamalvandi as saying. The U.N. nuclear watchdog — the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA — reported in May that Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% had grown to over 400 kilograms (882 pounds). That material, just below weapons-grade level, remains a central concern for the West. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD After the June war, Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA, following legislation signed by Pezeshkian. The road ahead remains uncertain. While European officials say they want to avoid further conflict and are open to a negotiated solution, they have warned that time is running out.

Iran says ready for nuclear talks with US, but on one condition
Iran says ready for nuclear talks with US, but on one condition

Hindustan Times

time18 minutes ago

  • Hindustan Times

Iran says ready for nuclear talks with US, but on one condition

Iran is ready to engage in talks on its nuclear program with the United States, but only if Washington takes meaningful steps to rebuild trust, a senior Iranian diplomat said Thursday, ahead of a key meeting with European officials. That meeting will be the first since a ceasefire was reached after a 12-day war waged by Israel against Iran in June, which also saw US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. (AFP) That meeting will be the first since a ceasefire was reached after a 12-day war waged by Israel against Iran in June, which also saw U.S. B-52 bombers strike nuclear-related facilities in the Islamic Republic. The discussions will bring Iranian officials together with officials from Britain, France and Germany — known as the E3 nations — and will include the European Union's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas. A similar meeting had been held in the Turkish city in May. Iran's conditions In a social media post, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Thursday that for talks with the Unites States, Tehran would seek that 'several key principles' be upheld. These include 'rebuilding Iran's trust — as Iran has absolutely no trust in the United States," he said, adding there could be no room 'for hidden agendas such as military action, though Iran remains fully prepared for any scenario.' Washington would have to respect and recognize Iran's rights under the international agreement known as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, including the right to enrich uranium 'in line with its legitimate needs' and the lifting of crippling economic sanctions on Iran. The talks in Istanbul will be held at the deputy ministerial level, with Iran sending Majid Takht-e Ravanchi, the other of Iran's two deputy foreign ministers. A show of strength Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a televised interview Thursday that Tehran would not back down from uranium enrichment. Before the war in June, Iran was enriching uranium up to 60% — a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels. 'Our enrichment will continue, and we will not give up this right of the Iranian people,' Araghchi said in a video posted on the state TV's Telegram channel. Iran's top diplomat said the Istanbul talks with the European parties are necessary, especially after the 12-day war, to make them aware that Iran's positions remain strong. 'The world must know that there has been no change in our stance,' he said. "We will continue to firmly defend the rights of the Iranian people to peaceful nuclear energy, especially regarding enrichment.' Araghchi also said that Iran has always been ready to advance its peaceful program within a reasonable and logical framework. 'We have never hesitated to build trust with countries that may have concerns,' he said, 'but at the same time, Iran's demand is that its right to peaceful nuclear energy, including enrichment, be respected.' High stakes European leaders have threatened to trigger a 'snapback' mechanism included in a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which would reimpose sanctions that were lifted in exchange for Iran accepting restrictions and monitoring of its nuclear program. The United Kingdom, France and Germany were signatories to the 2015 deal. The U.S. withdrew in 2018 during the first term of President Donald Trump, who insisted the agreement wasn't tough enough. Iranian officials have warned that a move to reimpose sanctions would have consequences. Gharibabadi said earlier this week that it could force Tehran to withdraw from key non-proliferation agreements. In a letter to U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, Araghchi accused the E3 of hypocrisy, saying they failed to uphold their obligations under the 2015 deal while supporting Israel's recent strikes on Iran. In last month's conflict, Iran responded to Israeli and U.S. strikes with missile attacks, including a strike on a U.S. base in Qatar, which Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian insisted was not directed at the Qatari state. In an interview with Al Jazeera that aired on Wednesday, Pezeshkian said Iran is prepared for another war and accused Israel of attempting to assassinate him during a June 15 meeting of Iran's national security council in Tehran. Pezeshkian reiterated that Iran's nuclear program will continue within the framework of international law and insisted the country has no intention of pursuing nuclear weapons. 'Our nuclear capabilities are in the minds of our scientists,' he said, emphasizing Iran's position that future negotiations must be rooted in mutual respect, not threats. The aftermath of war According to Iran's official judicial news agency Mizan, at least 13 Iranian nuclear scientists were killed during the June Israel-Iran war. The extent of the damage to Iran's nuclear sites from the war has not been publicly revealed but a spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said Thursday the country's nuclear industry would recover. 'Our nuclear industry is deeply rooted. What has roots cannot be harmed by attack or pressure — it will grow back and thrive again,' state TV quoted Behrouz Kamalvandi as saying. The U.N. nuclear watchdog — the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA — reported in May that Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% had grown to over 400 kilograms (882 pounds). That material, just below weapons-grade level, remains a central concern for the West. After the June war, Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA, following legislation signed by Pezeshkian. The road ahead remains uncertain. While European officials say they want to avoid further conflict and are open to a negotiated solution, they have warned that time is running out.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store