Eleven years: a data-based critique

Indian Express

7 days ago

This is a sequel to last week's column (Eleven Years: A Critique, Indian Express, June 15, 2025). I am fond of data that is accurate and verifiable but, alas, most readers are not. Even educated persons shy away when presented with numbers. I believe that numbers capture the picture (of an economy) more truthfully than words.
If the ultimate test of good governance is the well-being of the people, the question is, 'Does a person have enough income for necessities such as food, dwelling, education, healthcare, transport, family gatherings and recreation?' (I have left out other expenditure which, due to changing times, may be considered essential). The best official data available are in the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES). In my view, the metric of consumption, rather than income, measures the standard and quality of life of the average family. The last HCES was conducted in 2023-24, covered the whole country, and information was collected from 2,61,953 households (1,54,357 rural and 1,07,596 urban). Incidentally, Mr Narendra Modi's government completed ten years in 2023-24. HCES data is comprehensive.
The heart of the survey is the data on average Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE). What is a person's consumption expenditure in a month sums up the standard and quality of his/her life, whether rich or poor or middle class. Fortunately, the data is available by fractile classes of the population, i.e. by segmenting the population into each 10 per cent. Here is the data:
2011-12 2023-24
Fractile classes in Rupees in Rupees
of MPCE
Rural Urban Rural Urban
0 – 5 % 521 701 1,677 2,376
5 – 10 % 666 909 2,126 3,093
20 – 30% 905 1,363 2,833 4,353
40 – 50 % 1,136 1,888 3,498 5,622
70 – 80 % 1,645 3,063 4,885 8,353
90 – 95 % 2,556 5,350 6,929 12,817
95 – 100 % 4,481 10,282 10,137 20,310
Average
All India 1,430 2,630 4,122 6,996
It will be seen that—
🔴 Expenditure is a proxy for income and borrowing. The persons in the bottom 10 per cent have an expenditure of Rs 50-100 per day. Ask yourself, with Rs 50-100 a day, what kind of food can a person consume? What kind of dwelling can a person have? What kind of medical care or medicines can the person afford?
🔴 Ten percent of the population is not an insignificant number: it is 14 crore people. If they were a separate country, it will be ranked 10th in the world in terms of population. Yet, the NITI Aayog and the government claim that the 'poor' are only 5 per cent or less of the total population. The claim is cruel and dishonest.
🔴 The most relevant comparator is the ratio of the per capita expenditure of the top 5 per cent and the bottom 5 per cent. Twelve years ago it was approximately 12 times; in 2023-24 it is still approximately 7.5 times.
Government has claimed that agricultural growth is robust, but is the farmer's life robust? Data from NABARD (2021-22) showed that nearly 55 per cent of agricultural households are burdened with debt. The average outstanding loan per household is
Rs 91,231. According to a Lok Sabha reply on February 3, 2025, 13.08 crore farmers owed Rs 27,67,346 crore to commercial banks; 3.34 crore farmers owed Rs 2,65,419 crore to co-operative banks and 2.31 crore farmers owed Rs 3,19,881 crore to regional rural banks.
The PM Kisan scheme is riddled with holes. The peak enrollment was 10.47crore in April-July 2022. It declined to 8.1 crore in 2023 (15th installment) and government claimed it had risen to 9.8 crore in February 2025 (19th installment). The gyrations are inexplicable. Unjustifiably, tenant farmers are not eligible.
The crop insurance scheme was refined and re-introduced by the UPA government. Private insurers were allowed and the government directed the insurance companies to run the scheme on a 'no profit, no loss' basis. On the other hand, the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), implemented by the NDA, has become an extortionate scheme: the claims paid as a proportion of gross premiums collected has declined from 87 per cent in 2019-20 to 56 per cent in 2023-24.
The critical social security scheme — MGNREGS — has received a stagnant allocation in the last three years. Over 1.5 crore active job cards have been deleted. The average number of days of work is 51 as against the promised 100 days. Instead of being a demand-driven scheme, it has become a fund-starved scheme.
The 5 kg free grain per person to 80 crore persons leaves out 10 crore eligible citizens. Despite free rations and the mid-day meal scheme, stunting among children is 35.5 per cent and wasting among children is 19.3 per cent. In the Global Hunger Index, India ranks 105 out of 127 countries.
The share of manufacturing in GVA has fallen from 17.4 per cent in 2011-12 to 13.9 per cent in 2024-25. The vaunted Production-Linked Incentive scheme is a spectacular failure: 14 sectors were allocated Rs 1,96,409 crore but only Rs 14,020 crore has been disbursed.
Being the fastest growing large economy does not mean that the Indian economy is in good health or will eradicate poverty or make India a developed country. Every ten years, India needs another dose of structural reforms, decentralization of powers to States, massive de-regulation, more competition and the government 'getting out of the way'.