Putin stalls. Trump changes his mind. Ukraine targets Moscow. Latest on the war.
Russia's summer offensive in Ukraine has seen Moscow make its largest territorial gains in Ukraine since the start of the year, according to the Ukrainian open-source DeepState website and estimates by the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington, D.C., that specializes in military affairs and warfare.
In the past month, Russian military units concentrated in Ukraine's Sumy region, which borders Russia in the northeast, the eastern cities of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, and Zaporizhzhia in the south, have gained about 200 square miles, according to data from the war study institute. That's an area a little larger than the size of Atlanta.
Does that mean Russia is prevailing? Not really. It's not that simple. Here's the latest on Russia's war in Ukraine.
Why is Russia gaining ground in Ukraine?
Ukraine has liberated about 7% of the territory Russia occupied before and after Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to Ukrainian estimates and DeepState. That leaves about 19% still in Russian hands. Moscow still controls Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, and about two-thirds of Ukraine's Donetsk region, a vast and heavily industrialized region which remains the center of the ground war.
Russia has long had the upper hand in the war in terms of military manpower, but analysts say Moscow has suffered more casualties, and its loss of equipment − vehicles, artillery, tanks − also has been at a higher rate than Ukraine's. Though Russia has been advancing in recent months, those gains have been relatively slow and small, amounting to less than 0.1% of Ukraine's territory in July, according to a manual calculation.
Still, one reason Russia may have been able to make progress, according to the war study institute, is that Russia has substantially increased its use of drone attacks, and missiles and shells, on Ukraine. These grew at an average monthly rate of 31% in June and July. Russia has been using drones to pin down Ukrainian troops.
No, then yes, to more American weapons for Ukraine. Why?
President Donald Trump began his second term promising to end the war in Ukraine in his first 24 hours in office. He quickly halted the flow of military aid to Kyiv and temporarily stopped sharing some intelligence. He also cast blame on Ukraine for the war, giving President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a public dressing down in the Oval Office when he tried to push back on that assertion and counter Trump by saying Putin was not a reliable negotiator.
Since then, the leaders have revised their stances and welcomed more nuance in their discussions.
The war is still raging. Trump has appeared to change his tune on Ukraine and Putin as the Russian leader has pushed forward with drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and repeatedly rebuffed Trump's attempts to broker a ceasefire. In early July, Trump said he would resume shipping arms to Ukraine. He also announced a new arrangement with NATO that will see the military alliance transfer advanced U.S.-made air defense systems to Kyiv.
He also altered his attitude about the Russian leader.
"He's very nice to us all the time," Trump said July 9. "But it turns out to be meaningless."
What about the diplomacy?
Two rounds of Trump-brokered ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia have come to nothing. As the relationship between Putin and Trump has soured, a broad coalition of U.S. lawmakers has lined up ready to place new aggressive sanctions on Russia. Trump also has threatened "severe" economic penalties on Moscow if it does not commit to a ceasefire by early September. The Kremlin has dismissed this as "bluster."
The Russian government has suggested that Trump and Putin could meet in Beijing in September when Russia's leader is there for the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Moscow said it had not heard whether Trump plans to attend.
The White House has not commented.
But there's little doubt Moscow, for now, is on the back foot geopolitically, and perhaps even militarily.
Zelenskyy and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot announced in Kyiv a series of manufacturing deals with French companies on July 21 that will launch drone production in Ukraine. Overnight, Russia launched its latest barrage of drones and missiles at Kyiv. But Ukraine is also fighting back in ways increasingly difficult for Moscow to ignore. Videos published by Russian media showed people sleeping on the floor of Sheremetyevo, Russia's busiest airport, amid long lines and canceled flights after Ukraine bombarded it with drones.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ukraine-Russia war: Who's winning now and what could happen next
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