How I navigate uncertainty: A strategy for survival and sanity

Fast Company

2 days ago

In uncertain markets, survival is the first strategy. When I'm facing volatility—especially the kind we're seeing now—I look for something I can count on.
With the tariff situation and a general sense of instability in the market, the challenge is clear. But it's not only about tariffs. It's more about how to identify some level of certainty to serve the business purpose, whether for growth, cost reduction, or any particular focus you may have at a given time.
In our business, we sell to telcos, MSOs, and data centers. Many industries and market sectors are uncertain right now, but one thing I do see as certain is that the AI -driven data center market is growing, no matter what policy comes. That's a point of certainty. But to get there, I start by understanding the uncertainty.
What's the worst-case scenario?
This is the first question I ask during a time of uncertainty. Take the tariff situation, for example—the worst case is that you can't rely on the existing supply chain. From there, I ask: What's the highest tariff rate we can absorb? If the answer is none, then maybe we need to stop that part of the business. Every probable option should be on the table for consideration at this point, whether I am mentally prepared to accept it or not.
It's not easy—moving a supply chain is not going to happen overnight. Some of the questions worth asking include:
What certainty can be identified from the customer end?
What certainty can be identified within the supply chain?
Where's the flexibility?
That's the kind of thinking I follow. Can the supplier and the customer take some of the pain out of it together with us? If we can work together as a whole ecosystem, maybe we can still make the business sustainable.
After understanding the worst-case scenario, I try to work backwards to figure out the best thing I could do.
First of all, what can happen if tariffs skyrocket? Can we afford that situation? If not, then we may have to be ready to close that business, or at least try to pivot. Are we ready for this? If not, we'd better prepare ourselves for this worst-case scenario first.
Once you understand the worst-case scenario and are prepared for it, you may start working towards the best scenario by identifying the opportunities that may be hidden behind the challenges. For my company, that means focusing on the AI-driven data center infrastructure business for growth. We're not abandoning other business lines, but we're prioritizing what's most certain right now in terms of the market drive. That's on the business side—on the target customer segment perspective.
We may do this scenario planning from the worst towards the best by working within the entire ecosystem—the customer end, the supply end, and internally. How can we absorb that extra cost? That's how we try to maintain the business. One part is long-term. The other part is near-term mitigation. Of course, we can do other things like lobbying, but being a small or mid-sized business, you need to be able to survive first.
A MENTAL MODEL FOR DECISION-MAKING
To make sense of complexity, I rely on a simple framework I call the point-line theorem, where I take a pen and look at it first from the tip, then from the side. It helps me think through things from various perspectives to identify the best possible solution to a given problem at that given time. The first principle of this theorem is the incompleteness of perspectives. For instance, if you take n pictures of any object, I can always take a new one (or the n +1 one) to show you a different one.
That's why brainstorming is so important. If you're working by yourself, then fine—brainstorm by yourself. But if you can talk to your customer, your client, your supplier, then do it. The more people, the better, because everyone has a different experience and a different background, and can give new, fresh perspectives.
The second principle of the point-line theorem is what I call the symmetry of the perspectives: Who is right, the point or the line? I say they're symmetric, so you cannot objectively say which one is better. It depends on how you see it. That helps me welcome new ideas—even ones that seem contradictory or on the opposite side of what we already have.
The third principle is the breaking of symmetry. If there's a hole in the table and you want to keep the pen on the table, the line perspective works. But if you want the pen to drop into the hole, then the point perspective works. So, when a problem is presented or when a goal is identified, you can distinguish which perspective is most useful under this set of criteria you have.
After the brainstorming session, I try to put everything on the wall, even if it's messy. Then I pick the best that serves the purpose. Take into account the available perspectives and the goal you want to achieve—that's how I make a decision.
FIND SANITY BEFORE CERTAINTY
You cannot brainstorm forever. You cannot keep doing it unless you can afford it. So, when it's time to make a decision, sometimes you just have to make it.
In the tariff example, this isn't about how to deal with the tariffs specifically. It's about using that example to open up your mind. When you live in that uncertain world, what can you do to get some certainty, or sanity, back and to move forward?
The goal isn't to eliminate uncertainty—it's to find the clarity that lets you act anyway.