Unemployment to rise further, Chalmers says, as Trump 'volatility' weighs on employers
"When it comes to this tick up in unemployment, it is modest, it is unwelcome, but it's also unsurprising."
He said cost-of-living pressures, coupled with high interest rates, had resulted in a small lift, but overall, the economy "kept ticking over," unlike other countries. Asked whether Treasury anticipated unemployment would rise as high as 5 per cent, he said not quite. "We're not expecting unemployment to go that high. We think somewhere around the middle floors in our current forecast, but obviously there's a lot of uncertainty in that," Chalmers said. However, signs of a tougher jobs market could help set the scene for lower interest rates in the months ahead.
Ex-Reserve Bank of Australia economist Luke Hartigan said the June outcome met the central bank's year-end unemployment forecast.
"This just adds information to say that some modest reduction in interest rates is warranted," the University of Sydney economics lecturer told the Australian Associated Press. Trump tariffs weighing on employers' minds globally Asked if he believed the policy uncertainty was affecting decisions on whether to hire workers, Chalmers said: "That's certainly the feedback that we get around the place, speaking with CEOs and meeting with company boards. "There is a real sense that this volatility and unpredictability and uncertainty is really a defining and an ongoing feature of the global economy." Over the weekend, Trump announced a 30 per cent tariff on major trading partners Mexico and the European Union, set to kick in on 1 August. Chalmers said the "new normal" requires a "shift" in thinking, with "more collaboration, more secure supply chains and more reliable markets" the best pathway forward. With additional reporting by the Australian Associated Press.
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News.com.au
an hour ago
- News.com.au
The Geelong suburbs where home prices soared since Covid
Time is on the side of people who bought homes in Geelong in the first year of the Covid pandemic, new data reveals. New PropTrack research reveals people who bought homes in the 12 months to July 2020 are sitting pretty on potential five-year value gains of between 10 and 100 per cent. Only one Geelong suburb shows a price fall over that time, a 3.3 per cent decline for Geelong West units. The growth figures underline how dramatic the restrictions on the movement of people in Melbourne were on regional property prices during the pandemic, as thousands sought to leave the lockdown capital. Mid-century home designed by AFL great up for sale Dan Andrews' ring of steel locked in the unprecedented boom in home prices as waves of Melbourne people – many buying sight-unseen – accelerated demand for property. It wasn't to last though, with Geelong now coming out of a two-year downturn as the market absorbed the abnormal growth. The data reveals Rippleside as the standout suburb, with a 104 per cent median price gain over five years (worth $850,000) skewed by the waterfront Balmoral Quay development. A renovation boom made its mark at inner-west Manifold Heights, where the median house price has jumped nearly 60 per cent to $1.175m. But next-ring suburbs stood up best during the downturn. Whittington, St Albans Park, Bell Post Hill, Herne Hill and Corio houses banked median price growth between 30 and 40 per cent over five years, with inner-city South Geelong and outer suburban Lovely Banks and Marshall rounding out the city's 10 best-performing suburbs. Geelong buyers advocate Tony Slack said the strength of the growth over five years demonstrated the owning property for value gain was still a long-term proposition. 'You always should be looking at least five to seven years because of that cycle. That's just natural growth – plateau – growth – plateau. You need time in the market,' he said. Mr Slack said the pandemic boom was unique as it was driven predominantly by owner occupiers, with the negative result for Geelong West units put down to an oversupply and fewer investment buyers. Gartland Geelong agent Will Ainsworth said new development and renovations contributed significantly to the growth, especially in smaller suburbs such as Rippleside and Manifold Heights, but rising prices for inner suburbs also pushed demand further from the CBD. 'Eight to 10 years ago it would have been the suburbs closer to the CBD than those (that had the best growth),' he said. 'You've got East Geelong or Newcomb, and now you've got Whittington and St Albans Park. 'It's that next or third suburb from the CBD that became the affordable one, because that second one had taken off and become a bit less affordable,' he said. 'There's equity in two ways – improving the value in a renovation or waiting for the market to increase, or doing both. 'One of them is probably going to work, two of them are going to work better.' Geelong's best growth in five years: houses Suburb Median price 5 year change Rippleside $1,665,000 104.3% Manifold Heights $1,175,000 59.3% Whittington $540,000 40.3% Lovely Banks $805,000 40.0% St Albans Park $600,000 36.2% Bell Post Hill $655,000 35.1% Corio $490,000 34.2% Herne Hill $700,000 30.8% South Geelong $890,000 29.4% Marshall $630,000 28.8% Mr Ainsworth said buyers had become more sensible again, but there were still tricky conversations with vendors who bought at the height of the boom. 'If they bought for $1m, now it might be worth $950,000. The owners might want $1.05m to get their money back. You've got a $100,000 or 10 per cent differential that you can't bring that together – that's too big a price gap.' Hayeswinckle, East Geelong director Tiffany Simpson said returning confidence and interstate investors were improving values in areas like St Albans Park, where bigger properties offer better bang for buck. 'In almost the first six months of 2025 in St Albans Park we are up 10 per cent up on where we were last year – that's due to investors coming back in to the market,' she said. 'A lot of first-time buyers are able to stretch past $600,000, given a couple of interest rate cuts. 'The confidence has definitely returned and they feel more relaxed to able be able to fully use their borrowing potential.' Geelong's best growth in five years: units Suburb Median price 5 year change Newtown $603,000 36.4% Norlane $392,500 32.2% Bell Park $524,000 29.4% Newcomb $480,000 28.0% Corio $385,000 24.2% Whittington $375,000 22.5% Belmont $530,000 22.4% Herne Hill $355,000 22.1% Highton $502,000 21.0% Grovedale $500,000 20.1% McGrath, Geelong agent Jasmin Jurkovic said values in suburbs such as Bell Post Hill had responded as neighbouring areas heated up. 'The demographics are changing – it was a very ageing population with 80-plus year old migrants that came here 55 years ago and the built their dream home,' Ms Jurkovic said. 'The younger generation has gravitated here and appreciated the value they've got for families with land size, affordability for a good, solid brick home and all the conveniences.' Corio is the most-popular suburb in the top 10, where 291 houses sold in 12 months. The median house price has jumped from $365,000 in 2020 to $490,000. 'I became all about the bigger blocks and affordability and people were landbanking and going, 'well, it's an hour to Melbourne, first-time buyers will gravitate here if we build units',' she said. 'There's a lot of construction and building taking place and the yield was good because when you were buying something for $350,000, and the rent was about $300 to $280.'
The Advertiser
an hour ago
- The Advertiser
Australia, UK to ink 50-year deal to underpin AUKUS
Australia and the UK will ink a 50-year deal to underpin delivery of the AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement, amid concerns about a US review of the trilateral pact. AUKUS, formed in 2021 between Australia, the UK and US to address shared concerns about China's rising military ambition, is designed to enable Australia to acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines in the 2040s. But doubts have been raised about the future of the $368 billion program after the Trump administration this year initiated a review of the deal to examine if it met its "American First" criteria. Defence Minister Richard Marles said he remained confident about the future of US involvement on the eve of Australia and the UK signing a multi-decade bilateral deal cementing their commitment. "It is a profoundly important treaty that we will sign," Mr Marles said on Friday alongside Foreign Minister Penny Wong and their British counterparts John Healey and David Lammy. "It forms part of a trilateral agreement that we have and we are really confident about the progress of all three countries in bringing that to fruition." The treaty, to be signed in Geelong on Saturday, would allow "comprehensive co-operation" on the design, build, operation, sustainment, and disposal of AUKUS submarines, the ministers said in a joint statement. It will also support development of personnel, workforce, infrastructure and regulatory systems for Australia's nuclear-powered submarine program, the statement said. Mr Lammy said the treaty showed the strength of Australia and the UK's commitment to AUKUS. "It's clear that the UK-Australia relationship is an anchor in what is a very volatile world, providing stability in troubled waters and a relationship that holds steady whichever way the geopolitical winds are blowing," he said. Mr Healey said the UK was confident it could meet its obligations under the deal on industrial capacity to deliver SSN-AUKUS submarines. "We have the technology and the designs to be able to deliver our commitments to the SSN-AUKUS and we will," he said. Australia will pay $5 billion to support British industry to design and produce nuclear reactors to power the future AUKUS-class submarines. Australia will acquire at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US in the early 2030s. On Sunday, the ministers will visit Darwin to observe joint military exercises known as Talisman Sabre, which comprise more than 30,000 personnel from 19 militaries. This year, the war games involve the UK's Carrier Strike Group, led by the Royal Navy flagship HMS Prince of Wales - the first UK carrier strike group to visit Australia since 1997. Australia and the UK will ink a 50-year deal to underpin delivery of the AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement, amid concerns about a US review of the trilateral pact. AUKUS, formed in 2021 between Australia, the UK and US to address shared concerns about China's rising military ambition, is designed to enable Australia to acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines in the 2040s. But doubts have been raised about the future of the $368 billion program after the Trump administration this year initiated a review of the deal to examine if it met its "American First" criteria. Defence Minister Richard Marles said he remained confident about the future of US involvement on the eve of Australia and the UK signing a multi-decade bilateral deal cementing their commitment. "It is a profoundly important treaty that we will sign," Mr Marles said on Friday alongside Foreign Minister Penny Wong and their British counterparts John Healey and David Lammy. "It forms part of a trilateral agreement that we have and we are really confident about the progress of all three countries in bringing that to fruition." The treaty, to be signed in Geelong on Saturday, would allow "comprehensive co-operation" on the design, build, operation, sustainment, and disposal of AUKUS submarines, the ministers said in a joint statement. It will also support development of personnel, workforce, infrastructure and regulatory systems for Australia's nuclear-powered submarine program, the statement said. Mr Lammy said the treaty showed the strength of Australia and the UK's commitment to AUKUS. "It's clear that the UK-Australia relationship is an anchor in what is a very volatile world, providing stability in troubled waters and a relationship that holds steady whichever way the geopolitical winds are blowing," he said. Mr Healey said the UK was confident it could meet its obligations under the deal on industrial capacity to deliver SSN-AUKUS submarines. "We have the technology and the designs to be able to deliver our commitments to the SSN-AUKUS and we will," he said. Australia will pay $5 billion to support British industry to design and produce nuclear reactors to power the future AUKUS-class submarines. Australia will acquire at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US in the early 2030s. On Sunday, the ministers will visit Darwin to observe joint military exercises known as Talisman Sabre, which comprise more than 30,000 personnel from 19 militaries. This year, the war games involve the UK's Carrier Strike Group, led by the Royal Navy flagship HMS Prince of Wales - the first UK carrier strike group to visit Australia since 1997. Australia and the UK will ink a 50-year deal to underpin delivery of the AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement, amid concerns about a US review of the trilateral pact. AUKUS, formed in 2021 between Australia, the UK and US to address shared concerns about China's rising military ambition, is designed to enable Australia to acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines in the 2040s. But doubts have been raised about the future of the $368 billion program after the Trump administration this year initiated a review of the deal to examine if it met its "American First" criteria. Defence Minister Richard Marles said he remained confident about the future of US involvement on the eve of Australia and the UK signing a multi-decade bilateral deal cementing their commitment. "It is a profoundly important treaty that we will sign," Mr Marles said on Friday alongside Foreign Minister Penny Wong and their British counterparts John Healey and David Lammy. "It forms part of a trilateral agreement that we have and we are really confident about the progress of all three countries in bringing that to fruition." The treaty, to be signed in Geelong on Saturday, would allow "comprehensive co-operation" on the design, build, operation, sustainment, and disposal of AUKUS submarines, the ministers said in a joint statement. It will also support development of personnel, workforce, infrastructure and regulatory systems for Australia's nuclear-powered submarine program, the statement said. Mr Lammy said the treaty showed the strength of Australia and the UK's commitment to AUKUS. "It's clear that the UK-Australia relationship is an anchor in what is a very volatile world, providing stability in troubled waters and a relationship that holds steady whichever way the geopolitical winds are blowing," he said. Mr Healey said the UK was confident it could meet its obligations under the deal on industrial capacity to deliver SSN-AUKUS submarines. "We have the technology and the designs to be able to deliver our commitments to the SSN-AUKUS and we will," he said. Australia will pay $5 billion to support British industry to design and produce nuclear reactors to power the future AUKUS-class submarines. Australia will acquire at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US in the early 2030s. On Sunday, the ministers will visit Darwin to observe joint military exercises known as Talisman Sabre, which comprise more than 30,000 personnel from 19 militaries. This year, the war games involve the UK's Carrier Strike Group, led by the Royal Navy flagship HMS Prince of Wales - the first UK carrier strike group to visit Australia since 1997. Australia and the UK will ink a 50-year deal to underpin delivery of the AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement, amid concerns about a US review of the trilateral pact. AUKUS, formed in 2021 between Australia, the UK and US to address shared concerns about China's rising military ambition, is designed to enable Australia to acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines in the 2040s. But doubts have been raised about the future of the $368 billion program after the Trump administration this year initiated a review of the deal to examine if it met its "American First" criteria. Defence Minister Richard Marles said he remained confident about the future of US involvement on the eve of Australia and the UK signing a multi-decade bilateral deal cementing their commitment. "It is a profoundly important treaty that we will sign," Mr Marles said on Friday alongside Foreign Minister Penny Wong and their British counterparts John Healey and David Lammy. "It forms part of a trilateral agreement that we have and we are really confident about the progress of all three countries in bringing that to fruition." The treaty, to be signed in Geelong on Saturday, would allow "comprehensive co-operation" on the design, build, operation, sustainment, and disposal of AUKUS submarines, the ministers said in a joint statement. It will also support development of personnel, workforce, infrastructure and regulatory systems for Australia's nuclear-powered submarine program, the statement said. Mr Lammy said the treaty showed the strength of Australia and the UK's commitment to AUKUS. "It's clear that the UK-Australia relationship is an anchor in what is a very volatile world, providing stability in troubled waters and a relationship that holds steady whichever way the geopolitical winds are blowing," he said. Mr Healey said the UK was confident it could meet its obligations under the deal on industrial capacity to deliver SSN-AUKUS submarines. "We have the technology and the designs to be able to deliver our commitments to the SSN-AUKUS and we will," he said. Australia will pay $5 billion to support British industry to design and produce nuclear reactors to power the future AUKUS-class submarines. Australia will acquire at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US in the early 2030s. On Sunday, the ministers will visit Darwin to observe joint military exercises known as Talisman Sabre, which comprise more than 30,000 personnel from 19 militaries. This year, the war games involve the UK's Carrier Strike Group, led by the Royal Navy flagship HMS Prince of Wales - the first UK carrier strike group to visit Australia since 1997.
News.com.au
an hour ago
- News.com.au
Gen-Y dad flips $270k shack for luxe waterfront home
Millennial dad Jordan Strudwick has pulled off the ultimate Covid upgrade, swapping his first home in Ipswich for a $4.2m waterfront property on the Gold Coast. Mr Strudwick recalls 'feeling like King Kong' in 2020 after pocketing $40,000 from selling the shack he bought two years earlier. Now, buoyed by the pandemic boom, the 32-year-old and his wife, Jana, have a property portfolio valued at more than $10m, including a luxury home with a pool in one of Queensland's most coveted locations. The couple's investment journey began in 2018 with the purchase of a three-bedroom post-war house in Raceview for $270,000. They have since acquired ten properties and sold six, leveraging equity and profits to expand their portfolio. 'It all just starts with one,' said Mr Strudwick, a business owner and father of two children aged 2 and 5 months. The founder of Strud Property Group has capitalised on huge growth in the Ipswich region, where his business is also based. 'We were fortunate that we owned three properties when we went into the boom, and everyone who sold then made $200-300,000 so that gave us a start to go into some bigger properties,' Mr Strudwick said. 'Everyone says, 'you got lucky with Covid' – but we also had the courage to buy before Covid when Ipswich prices weren't moving much at all.' Pool builder's insane pay day from empty block flip Massive penthouse sale as beachfront tower unveiled 'Tense' auction at riverfront mansion Now, as head of a company with 70 team members, Mr Strudwick encourages other young people to make the market work for them. 'We push our young team members to purchase their first home because that dream of ownership may nearly be impossible in 20 years' time unless you are from a family with money, or an ultra-high paying job,' he said. 'In Ipswich, you can still purchase a home sub-$600,000 with the government's 5 per cent deposit scheme so you'll need $30,000. 'It is hard to do this while paying rent, but that's also an excuse because that coffee a day, the cigarettes, drinking on the weekend all adds up.' Starting out with a $50,000 personal loan to kickstart his career in real estate, Mr Strudwick decided to use $15,000 of that as 5 per cent deposit on a first house. 'I just remembered being so poor — I only had a mattress on the ground,' he said. 'I lived in its original 1960s condition — pink walls and no water pressure — and sold in just under two years. I made $40,000 and thought I was King Kong because back then, nothing was happening in the Ipswich market.' Staying humble has been key to his success, along with recognising the work and risk it takes to build wealth. 'I've been fortunate that I've never lost money, but I'm grateful to have a great team around me advising me on debt,' Mr Strudwick said. 'Always be planning forward for your next move. Find out what your home is worth and how you can leverage your debt. Make your money work for you.' A key lesson – 'stick to what you know', he said, admitting commercial property hasn't been the windfall he was expecting. 'Just because you can doesn't always mean you should. 'If you want shorter term capital growth, residential is where it is at.' The Strudwicks are now planning to rebuild their portfolio by selling most of their assets to pay down the family home, then aim to put funds towards flipping older canalfront homes, eventually moving into larger scale development. With Queensland home prices still rising, Mr Strudwick said buyers could expect an uplift of 15 to 20 per cent by the end of 2026. 'With the Olympic Games coming to Queensland, we're entering a once-in-a-generation window of opportunity. 'Infrastructure, population, and investment are set to surge and that means real estate in SEQ is set for massive growth,' he said. For first-home buyers, Mr Strudwick advised keeping emotions at play when deciding what to offer. 'Figure out your three prices – your bargain price, your middle, 'okay, I'd pay that price', and most importantly, your walk-away price.'
