Allan has time to abandon Melbourne's gargantuan folly. But it's about to run out
This means that if the government quit the SRL now, it could break the main works contracts it has already signed for a fraction of their nominal, $5.3 billion value. There are no hidden nasties like there were in the East West Link contract the former Coalition government booby-trapped for Labor on the eve of the 2014 state election.
Once the tunnel boring machine is loaded onto freight transport in Guangzhou, the costs incurred by the main works consortia – this first to get its hands dirty is the Suburban Connect consortia comprising of Acciona, CPB Contractors and Ghella – will escalate quickly.
By Christmas, the Victorian government will be standing deep in a hole at Clarinda with a choice only to keep digging.
This calculus should be front-of-mind for anyone reading revelations by my colleagues Patrick Hatch and Kieran Rooney about the North West Strategic Assessment, a wafty title given to a secret government document detailing urgent rail projects needed in parts of Melbourne far removed from the proposed route of SRL East.
In the eight years since a room full of PwC consultants started dreaming up plans for an orbital rail loop around Melbourne, the public transport needs of the city's fast-growing western and northern suburbs has gone from pressing to dire.
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Former premier Daniel Andrews promised to electrify the Melton and Wyndham lines within weeks of unveiling his plans for SRL. While nothing has been done on the former, the latter is ploughing ahead despite Infrastructure Australia warning about the business case and funding model and the federal government privately urging the state to change tracks.
Premier Jacinta Allan and many of her ministers remain convinced of the electoral popularity of the SRL. Two days after the federal election wiped out the last two Liberal-held seats in Melbourne's eastern suburbs and silenced murmurings around her leadership, Allan went so far as to suggest it's the SRL wot won it.
Yet how can a Labor government, in good conscience, prioritise another rail line for a part of Melbourne already well serviced by public transport above the provision of basic transport services for communities living in neglected parts of the city?
As one Labor MP who represents a Melbourne growth area explained, access to reliable public transport isn't just about moving people around or enabling townhouse and high-rise developments. Fundamentally, it is about opportunity to study, to work and to prosper.
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That opportunity should not be equal only for people living east of the Maribyrnong River or inside Melbourne's ring road.
The state and federal government's combined $4 billion investment to rebuild Sunshine station and untangle the knot of metro, regional and freight lines that run past its existing platforms is the first significant step towards modern rail transport for people living in Caroline Springs, Melton, Tarneit and Wyndham Vale.
It should be the start of a more substantial pivot away from giving Melbourne's east what it wants and providing the west and north what they need.
SRL East is a project which, in the unlikely event it is completed on time, will run its first service in 2035. Its opportunity cost is being counted now, on a daily basis, across health, mental health, education and other essential services, where jobs are being cut and agencies defunded.
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In the new currency of Victoria's public sector, every metre of SRL tunnel equates to $130 million that could otherwise be spent on teachers or nurses or preventive healthcare or government schools.
Before the last state election, when then opposition leader Matthew Guy promised to axe the SRL and redirect the money into hospitals, Daniel Andrews delivered a pithy retort. 'Not rail or hospitals,' he tweeted. 'Both.'
It was a brilliant line and, as it turns out, complete bollocks.
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