FIRST READING: Poilievre now further from electoral victory than at any point since winning leadership

National Post

18-06-2025

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With Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre facing a leadership review as early as January, his party is now further from electoral victory than at any point since he first became leader in 2022.
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A new Nanos poll released this week found that public support for the Carney government has surged since election day, to the point where the Liberals would now be poised to win a comfortable majority if the vote was held again.
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The Liberals now hold a 12-point lead over the Conservatives (44.2 per cent to 32.2 per cent), far higher than the two-point lead they posted on election day (43.76 per cent to 41.31 per cent).
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According to Liu, the Liberals could expect 190 seats against a Conservative caucus of just 117 seats.
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This would actually be the best electoral outcome for the Liberals since 1980, when Pierre Trudeau secured his final term with a commanding victory over the Progressive Conservatives under Joe Clark.
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The Nanos poll also found Prime Minister Mark Carney dominating in rankings of 'preferred prime minister.' Among Nanos respondents, 49.7 per cent favoured keeping Carney in the top job, against just 24.2 per cent who wanted to see a Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre.
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The shift is particularly dramatic when considering that Nanos had Poilievre as a prime minister-in-waiting as recently as January. When the year 2025 began, the Tories were polling at 45 per cent to the Liberals' 23 per cent, with Poilievre posting an all-time high of 40.5 per cent as preferred prime minister.
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Against all this, both Conservative MPs and Conservative supporters appear to remain supportive of keeping Poilievre as leader.
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In the immediate wake of Poilievre's loss of the general election — and the loss of his own Ottawa-area seat of Carleton — dozens of Conservative MPs came out in support of keeping Poilievre at the helm.
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Even Kory Teneycke, an organizer with Ontario Premier Doug Ford and a vocal critic of Poilievre during the electoral campaign, said he didn't suspect the federal Conservatives would be opting for a new leader.
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'I think the caucus that was elected this election is chock-full of Poilievre loyalists and people who owe their seat to his leadership, and I think they'll very much want to see him stay,' Teneycke told The Canadian Press in May.