Trump Is Stringing Ukraine Along

The Atlantic

5 days ago

Every so often, Donald Trump sends an encouraging signal to Ukraine, despite his long pattern of deference toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. Last week, the president of the United States allowed the transfer of a number of American Patriot anti-missile systems through Germany—a move that will strengthen Ukraine's air defense at a dangerous time. The Ukrainians are so pleased with this offer that President Volodymyr Zelensky has floated an expanded military relationship, wherein Ukraine would share its drone expertise with Americans in exchange for further arms sales.
Then again, Ukrainian air defenses are overstretched in part because of another recent decision Trump made: As he was agreeing last week to allow the transfer of more Patriots to Ukraine—at Europe's expense—he also gave Putin about 50 days to come to the negotiating table before the White House will consider new sanctions against Russia. In essence, Trump gave the Russian dictator the rest of the summer to continue his bombing campaign against Ukrainian cities.
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Recognizing that supporting a democratic Ukraine against Putin's invasion is in America's interest, the Biden administration had donated weapons to Ukraine, rather than expecting to be paid for them. Ukraine, which needs supplies to continue its fight, has no real choice but to keep seeking the White House's favor. But Trump seems to be stringing the Ukrainians along. The equipment he plans to furnish will not be enough to enable the Ukrainians to win. Whatever help he provides appears less decisive than the obstacles he puts in their way.
For months now, the Russians have spurned any real negotiations with Ukraine and ramped up their bombardment of Ukrainian cities—killing and maiming civilians on almost a nightly basis. In response to this, Trump has regularly decried Putin's actions, but resolutely refused to take any concrete steps himself to rein the Russian dictator in.
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As Russia launched an ever-larger number of missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities, many in Congress were eager to approve crippling secondary sanctions that would have all but prevented outside powers from doing business with Russia. These measures were included in a bipartisan bill sponsored by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal—and co-sponsored by more than 80 other members of the senior chamber. It was also a bill that stood to gain quick passage in the House—if Trump would allow House Speaker Mike Johnson bring it to a vote. Trump even indicated that his wife, Melania, was appalled at the destruction that Ukrainians keep suffering. 'I go home. I tell the first lady, 'You know, I spoke to Vladimir today. We had a wonderful conversation.' She said, 'Oh, really? Another city was just hit,'' Trump said last week.
But instead of moving firmly against Putin, Trump gave his 50-day ultimatum—which may not even be an ultimatum if, in the end, Trump backs off his threat to impose 'very severe tariffs' on Russia. As nationalist commentators in Russia quickly understood, Trump was offering Putin a great strategic gift. In part because Trump has refused to add new sanctions after his inauguration in January, and suppliers have found ways around existing ones, Russia can now manufacture more missiles. After dark, Russian forces are bombarding Ukrainian cities with a growing number of missiles and drones—the record for one night, set earlier this month, is more than 700, a quantity that would have been inconceivable in 2022, at the start of the full-scale invasion. And German General Christian Freuding, head of the Ukraine Situational Center at the German Ministry of Defense, recently said that Russia wants to be able to launch 2,000 drones in a single attack.
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Even if Ukraine gains access to greater defensive firepower, the country almost certainly won't be able to shoot down all of the incoming munitions in attacks of that size, and the toll in Ukrainian lives seems sure to mount.
On the ground, Russia can step up its efforts to take one tiny parcel of Ukrainian land after the next—even at the cost of sending tens of thousands more of its own soldiers to their doom. If Trump genuinely has plans to increase pressure on Russia after his 50-day grace period expires, he's essentially giving Putin reason to set a goal of conquering as much territory as possible before coming to any peace talks.
At the end of a 50-day rampage, the Russians could even decide to take up the terrible 'peace' deal that the Trump administration floated a few months ago. This included letting the Russians keep almost every piece of Ukrainian land they have seized, granting U.S. recognition of Russian control over Crimea, depriving Ukraine of any hope of NATO membership, and withholding any meaningful security guarantees whatsoever.
Having done everything Trump has asked, having negotiated in good faith, having kissed up to the president, having avoided attacking Russian civilian targets partially out of deference to the U.S., the Ukrainians now see the White House basically guaranteeing the Russians a sanctions-free summer to commit any atrocities they want.
Under these circumstances, Zelensky's offer to share drone expertise is a gamble, given Trump's apparent sympathy for Putin. Hoping to entice his American counterpart into providing reliable support, the Ukrainian leader previously offered the United States an interest in his country's mineral wealth. The deal is in effect, but Trump's support remains fickle at best, because supporting a free people in their struggle against a foreign dictatorship is no longer a priority for the United States.