'Abundance' is all around us - just look at all our empty buildings

Irish Examiner

4 days ago

A recent best-selling book, Abundance, written by US columnists Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, respectively, has captivated policymakers worldwide.
The treatise for enabling 21st-century infrastructure argues that there are societal and bureaucratic regulations stultifying growth that must be tackled head-on if cities and municipalities are to achieve their targets whether it be in housing, energy or other fields. In order, 'to have the future we want', the authors argue, 'we need to build and invent more of what we need'.
To combat the twin threats of scarcity and supply bottlenecks the duo mention that 'we need a new theory of supply' and 'a new way of thinking about politics, economics and growth'.
The authors spotlight California as a prime example of regulatory gridlock, where, they say, environmental mandates and bureaucratic hurdles impede vital infrastructure projects. They highlight the stalled high-speed rail of the kind mastered by China in the mid-2000s, delayed by extensive environmental reports, stakeholder conflicts, and cost overruns.
Readers here in Ireland can sympathise with this situation given our own experience of the infamous Children's Hospital which was due to be completed by 2020 but is now delayed to 2026 at a cost of over €2bn, having initially had a modest price tag of €650mn. Ditto MetroLink, which is expected to be constructed by 2028 if we're lucky.
Speeding up the planning process as fast as those high-speed rails sounds appealing to those who wish to see our cities and towns scale up. However, behind the veneer of a noble initiative to kickstart desperately needed infrastructure lies a well-funded industry of interests that seek to re-imagine neoliberalism with progressive aesthetics.
Far from being a mere book title, the 'Abundance' movement has been pioneered by various think-tanks propped up by oligarchic vested interests. Having managed to branch out beyond policy papers into the very halls of power, these movers and shakers are making headlines day in and day out.
From Tesla CEO and former White House staffer Elon Musk's efforts to slash red tape via the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE to Stripe CEO and Limerick native Patrick Collison's push for deregulated 'charter cities', several public figures are associated either directly or peripherally within the wider movement.
One example of a think-tank tied to this movement is the Mercatus Centre. Based in George Mason University (GMU) in the US State of Virginia, it was funded by Charles and David Koch known collectively as the Koch Brothers.
These US-Libertarian oil mogul siblings spearheaded attempts across the US to roll back hard-won rights for workers by backing union-busting candidates and legislation via think-tanks such as the Cato and Manhattan Institutes, respectively. The Mercatus Centre is headed by the Libertarian columnist, author and former GMU Professor Tyler Cowen who has advocated for free markets but greater state involvement in so-called mega projects.
'Abundance' in Ireland
While some may think this Libertarian ideology is confined to tech bros in the US, the Abundance movement has reached Ireland via the think-tank Progress Ireland. Stripe's Patrick Collison and Cowen have shared platforms, co-written articles and co-ordinated in funding projects.
Progress Ireland, funded by Collison and whose executive director is Sean Keyes, formerly of the online business publication The Currency, has influenced policymakers intending to 'connect Ireland to the best of international policymaking in three areas: housing, infrastructure, and innovation.'
The recent amendment to the planning bill to allow exemptions for detached cabins or modular-style structures at the back of properties, described colloquially as beds in sheds, is the brainchild of this Abundance-adjacent think-tank following a meeting between Progress Ireland and Taoiseach Micheál Martin's policy adviser Alan Ahearne in government buildings.
The planned Ashton Court residential development on a five-acre site overlooking the River Blackwater Estuary in Youghal, Co Cork remains derelict, at the former Loreto Convent and residential services. File picture: Larry Cummins
According to the group's housing policy director Seán O'Neill McPartlin, over 300,000 of these garden sheds could be built which will 'allow for a younger person to live independently of the family home" and provide parents with the option to "right-size within their own community while maintaining the support of their family in close proximity".
While some were quick to point out the unfortunate situation of people being forced to move out of cabins built without planning permission, the failure to provide adequate long-term, affordable housing solutions has undeniably left us wide open to this sort of unorthodox proposal. But where did the beds in sheds idea come from?
What were originally coined as Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) or granny flats built in parts of America and New Zealand, saw homeowners apply for a permit to construct small, inconspicuous homes in gardens that families could rent out. In 2021, ADUs accounted for over a fifth of Los Angeles's new rental homes.
The first call to implement this scheme in Ireland came from a group named the Better Planning Alliance, where O'Neill McPartlin had previously worked, which was funded by Emergent Ventures via Mercatus's Tyler Cowen. For its part, Emergent Ventures provides grants to entrepreneurs, and was initially backed by the Libertarian CEO of Palantir Technologies, Peter Thiel.
But while Irish ADUs may allow for 'intergenerational movement', the law of unintended consequences may see house prices increase even further. According to Architect Mel Reynolds, if ADUs are rented out house prices could rise between €150,000-€200,000. This will only make it harder for young people to explore the second-hand market, thus benefiting existing homeowners - the very opposite of its stated intention.
Another study from Australia titled We Zoned for Density and Got Higher House Prices: Supply and Price Effects of Upzoning Over 20 Years, found that the relaxation of planning rules to allow for higher density development not only failed to increase supply but also led to higher prices. Other empirical evidence suggests that modular housing can also face cost overrun difficulties with such homes for Ukrainians rising from €200,000 when first floated to over €400,000 per unit - a rise of 120%.
The attempts to relax planning regulations within properties comes off the back of a more recent announcement around kickstarting the building of apartments by deregulating standards. Under the Planning Design Standards for Apartments, Guidelines for Planning Authorities (2025), new guidelines:
will permit the minimum size of a studio apartment to be reduced from the current 37sqm to 32sqm;
the requirement of no more than 10% of small two-bedroom apartments permitted in a development will be jettisoned;
and the minimum amount of apartments that must have dual aspect windows has also been reduced.
In a move that all but eliminates the pretence of ensuring community formation within developments, the government has also removed mandatory 'communal, community and cultural facilities' for individual apartment schemes. What emerges is an image of a vast array of brutalist structures filled with shoe boxes with little to no neighbourly bonds between its occupants.
Decrying the attempt by central government to override local development plans, Green Party Councillor Claire Byrne stated that the plan was 'a vicious attack on local government and our city development plan processes'. This announcement follows several pleas from lobbying groups such as Irish Institutional Property (IIP) whose head Pat Farrell has long argued for lower standards for apartments.
But while the government is more than happy to meet with well-funded think-tanks and property lobbyists, the refusal to meet with any tenant groups or even consult the public beforehand was denounced as "disquieting" by the Irish Planning Institute (IPI).
Describing themselves as 'the very professionals that will have to interpret and implement the changed guidelines', President of the IPI Gavin Lawlor mentioned that far from improving the housing situation, this 'market-led approach' risks exacerbating legal issues. 'This, and allowing changes to already permitted developments, also risks introducing more legal unpredictability,' he said.
Ireland's dereliction
The truth is that Ireland already has an abundant number of homes. The idea that the State needs to embrace the foreign concept of "abundance" is ludicrous when examining what we already have.
As I have written previously in this publication, county councils in Ireland are currently sitting on around 4,400 vacant homes. Indeed, data from An Post shows that in Dublin alone there are well over 14,000 empty residential and commercial properties with 4,000 located in the city centre.
The rush to increase supply - any supply, whether it be garden sheds or small apartments - bears all the hallmarks of the supply rush Ireland experienced during the boom in which supply exceeded immediate needs.
Instead of rushing to repeat old mistakes, the State should take an active role in revitalising empty units, allowing homeless families and young people to move in.
Choosing between a bed in the shed or a shoe box is a dilemma I don't ever want to experience - but it seems like those are the only options being sold to my generation by a government devoid of imagination.
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