Anil Ambani's comeback playbook: The bold sectoral pivot turning heads on D-Street

Time of India

07-07-2025

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The collapse: Insolvency of two major businesses
The turnaround: Eyeing the future again
For Ambani, Atmanirbharta in defence leads the show
October 2024: Dhirubhai Ambani Defence City, Ratnagiri, to become India's largest private-sector greenfield defence manufacturing facility.
Dhirubhai Ambani Defence City, Ratnagiri, to become India's largest private-sector greenfield defence manufacturing facility. June 8, 2025: ₹5,000 cr opportunity from HAL contract to upgrade 55 Dornier-228 aircraft over 7–10 years.
₹5,000 cr opportunity from HAL contract to upgrade 55 Dornier-228 aircraft over 7–10 years. Part of the Rafale PBL program, supporting long-term maintenance and logistics.
June 10, 2025: ₹10,000 cr potential via Diehl Defence (Germany) JV to locally produce Vulcano 155 mm precision-guided munitions in Maharashtra.
₹10,000 cr potential via Diehl Defence (Germany) JV to locally produce Vulcano 155 mm precision-guided munitions in Maharashtra. June 19, 2025: Dassault Aviation (France) to manufacture Falcon 2000 business jets in India with Reliance—first-ever production outside France.
Dassault Aviation (France) to manufacture Falcon 2000 business jets in India with Reliance—first-ever production outside France. June 25, 2025: Rs 600 cr export order from Rheinmetall (Germany) for explosives and propellants.
Rs 600 cr export order from Rheinmetall (Germany) for explosives and propellants. June 30, 2025: ₹20,000 cr domestic MRO opportunity through new pact with Coastal Mechanics Inc. (USA) for defence maintenance and upgrades.
Anil Ambani's full-stack green push
2.5 GWp solar + 2.5 GWh BESS total development pipeline — India's largest private integrated solar+storage capacity.
December 2024: 930 MW solar + 1,860 MWh BESS SECI project secured by Reliance NU Suntech — Asia's largest solar-plus-storage project.
May 28, 2025: 350 MW solar + 700 MWh BESS awarded in SJVN auction to Reliance NU Energies.
May 19, 2025: 500 MW solar + 770 MW hydro JV with Bhutan's DHI — largest Indian private FDI in Bhutan's renewable energy sector.
June 29, 2025: 1,500 MW gas-based project bids submitted in Kuwait, UAE, and Malaysia — using redeployed GE modules from India.
June 29, 2025: Rs 2,000 crore asset monetisation potential from deploying two 750 MW gas modules abroad, as per PTI.
Is it truly a grand return yet?
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For a decade, Anil Ambani , 66, was a case study in decline. Almost everyone in the market had written him off. Almost all his ventures had failed. But it seems fortune has started smiling on him again. He's fast becoming a compelling case study in corporate revival. And the resurgence is not going unnoticed. Dalal Street is responding in kind.In the past six months, two of his group companies, Reliance Power and Reliance Infrastructure , have seen market cap gains of 1.5x and 1.9x, respectively. Also, foreign institutional holdings have increased, and so has the group's project pipeline, which includes solar-plus-storage megaprojects and Rs 10,000 crore smart munitions contracts. More importantly, the companies are debt-free. Additionally, a Rs 17,600-crore capital raise is underway.This time, the junior Ambani scion is not returning with flashy statements; instead, he is making a structured pivot into sectors that India is actively betting on: green energy, defence production, and strategic infrastructure. In short, the rebranded group—Reliance Group India—is orchestrating one of the closely tracked turnaround stories of Dalal Street.However, the momentum, the rally, and everything in between also come against the backdrop of some of India's biggest corporate collapses, with which Dhirubhai's youngest son is associated—Reliance Communications (RCom) and Reliance Capital, both of which are legacy companies of the original Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group.So, the question remains: Will the turnaround endure?Reliance Communications was valued at over Rs 1.68 lakh crore in January 2008 and was a key component of the benchmark BSE Sensex, representing the telecom ambitions of the early 2000s. It was India's first CDMA operator and had over 120 million subscribers during its heyday.But by 2017, the company found itself overwhelmed by more than Rs 45,000 crore in debt. Regulatory dues, spectrum costs, and aggressive competition from new entrants, particularly Jio, forced RCom to shut its wireless operations.The downfall continued. In 2019, RCom filed for insolvency. Its assets were subsequently auctioned under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). Jio acquired key spectrum assets from RCom, while Brookfield picked up its tower infrastructure. As of mid-2025, the insolvency process remains under review in the Supreme Court over adjusted gross revenue (AGR) liabilities.As for Reliance Capital, the financial services arm of the group, it saw a similar fate. Following defaults on bond repayments, it was placed under RBI-led resolution in 2021. Although the Hinduja Group was declared the winning bidder in 2023 for Rs 9,661 crore, legal disputes have delayed the handover.These twin collapses had drastically altered public perception of the group—from a future-looking one to one laden with risk.However, the recent performance of the group companies Reliance Power and Reliance Infrastructure signals that the group's challenging phase may truly be behind it.Anil Ambani is daring to face the future again, this time focusing on D-Street's favourites: defence and renewables. The pivot began in 2024, as the group quietly moved to ringfence operational companies, Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Power, from legacy financial and telecom liabilities. By October 2024, both companies had declared themselves debt-free.'In September 2024, few could have anticipated the remarkable financial turnaround that would soon unfold,' the company said in a written response to ET Online. A clear and disciplined strategic vision is driving this resurgence. 'Reliance Group's strategic roadmap is centred on adopting asset-light, capital-efficient models designed to deliver superior returns on invested capital (ROIC) while maintaining financial flexibility. With a debt-free balance sheet and strong equity backing, Reliance Group is now fully focused on execution and value creation,' the company said.Behind the scenes, the next generation of the Ambani family, Jai Anmol and Jai Anshul, have reportedly assumed operational and strategic roles. They joined the board of Reliance Infrastructure in October 2019 but stepped down within a year. Since then, they have been involved in debt-reduction initiatives and in securing new deals in defence and renewable energy. However, there's no public record yet confirming their direct involvement in the rebranding decision or earlier strategic planning.With the orderbook surging (see chart), the group has charted a Rs 17,600-crore fundraising plan over the next few years.As part of this reset, the group has already raised Rs 4,500 crore through preferential allotments in Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Power. It also secured Rs 7,100 crore in Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) through a partnership with the global alternative investment firm Värde Partners.In addition, a Rs 6,000-crore Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) programme is being prepared to further strengthen the balance sheet. 'This diversified capital strategy, spanning preferential equity, FCCBs, and QIPs, reflects a disciplined approach to value creation, balancing short-term liquidity needs with long-term equity value enhancement,' stated the Anil Ambani-led group.Complementing these fundraising initiatives, group firm Reliance Infrastructure is planning to monetise its portfolio of nine toll road assets.These efforts have had a visible impact on the group's financial ratios. As of May 2025, Reliance Infrastructure's debt-to-equity ratio dropped sharply to 0.28x from 0.78x a year earlier. Similarly, Reliance Power brought its ratio down from 1.62 to 0.93 in the same period. As a result, Reliance Infrastructure's net worth increased to Rs 14,287 crore as of March 31, 2025, from Rs 8,428 crore a year earlier, while Reliance Power's net worth rose to Rs 16,337 crore as of March 31, 2025 from Rs 11,614 in FY24.Additionally, a legal reprieve in June 2025 from the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT), which stayed insolvency proceedings against Reliance Infra, further boosted market sentiment and provided the group with additional headroom to execute its sectoral realignment.'Renewed investor interest in ADAG stocks in 2025 is being driven by a combination of strategic sectoral focus, debt reduction and legal relief,' said Vipin Singhal, Director, Anand Rathi Investment Banking.Let's break it down further.Reliance Group India is betting big on defence manufacturing, positioning it as a key growth driver and a central pillar of its transformation story. According to the company, group firm Reliance Defence is targeting a Rs 50,000-crore export-addressable market.In its response to ET, the company said that it is now aiming for Rs 3,000 crore in defence exports over the next two years, primarily through the export of 155 mm ammunition. In FY26 itself, it aims to generate Rs 1,500 crore from large-calibre ammunition.So far, Reliance Defence has recorded exports totalling Rs 100 crore from artillery ammunition and related aggregates in FY26. Additionally, a broader export pipeline of Rs 15,000 crore is also under development for the next three years, suggesting brighter prospects.The group's chairman has said that the renewed focus on defence aligns closely with national priorities. 'Guided by the vision of 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' and 'Make in India' as championed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, our ambition is clear—to position Reliance Defence among India's top three defence exporters,' said Anil Ambani, Chairman of the Reliance Group.He added, 'Through this, we aim to enable India not only to meet its domestic defence needs with confidence but also to establish itself as a trusted force in the global defence supply chain.'Although the contract pipeline is expanding, experts suggest that execution timelines and regulatory bottlenecks would be key factors to watch out for. 'Having secured long-term contracts in renewables and defence, the group has improved its financial performance. But execution will be key,' Anand Rathi's Singhal said.In 2025, clean energy has emerged as one of the most sought-after themes, receiving substantial support on Dalal Street and within India's broader development agenda. Taking advantage of this shift, Reliance Group is expanding its role from a project developer to a full-spectrum participant, encompassing solar generation, battery storage, hydro, gas-based clean power, and now renewable equipment manufacturing.'In terms of renewable interest, asset managers are prioritising long-term clean energy plays. FII stake in Reliance Power has increased to ~13% in FY25 from ~7% in FY23, with market cap increasing to ~Rs 28,537 crore from ~Rs 17,273 crore (~1.65x in the past six months),' Singhal noted.The growing confidence among investors is supported by the group's proactive expansion into green energy infrastructure. Reliance Power has started working on a 2.5 GWp pipeline of utility-scale solar projects along with over 2.5 GWh of battery energy storage systems (BESS), which, the group says, will be completed over the next couple of years, positioning itself as India's largest private player in the integrated solar-plus-storage segment.This strategic capacity addition comes as India races to meet its 500 GW non-fossil fuel target by 2030, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimating that battery storage demand could exceed 175 GWh in the next five years.Reliance Infrastructure is also expected to spearhead the push into solar module and renewable hardware manufacturing. 'With Reliance Infrastructure's entry into solar equipment and battery manufacturing business, the Reliance Group will now cover the entire spectrum of renewable energy value chain, enabling the group to offer end-to-end solutions—from renewable energy equipment manufacturing to solar power generation,' the company had said in February.This effort also comes as clean energy becomes a multi-player race. While peers like Adani Green, JSW Energy, and Reliance Industries are ramping up solar and wind assets, the Reliance Group says, 'It is betting on integrated execution, storage scalability, and regional partnerships,' expressing confidence in its differentiated approach.'India's vast renewable energy potential presents significant opportunities for multiple large-scale players. In the coming years, the sector is expected to be driven by at least five to six major participants working to achieve the country's ambitious renewable energy targets. Reliance Group is well-positioned to emerge as one of the leading players in the green energy space,' the group said.Singhal noted Institutional investors, who have historically remained cautious about the group, are beginning to take note of its recent strides in the clean energy space. 'While retail enthusiasm continues to drive short-term momentum, the scale and credibility of Reliance Group India's renewable wins are gradually attracting institutional interest, provided execution remains consistent and governance improves.'As cliché as it sounds, only time will tell whether this marks Anil Ambani's redemption arc and pays tribute to Dhirubhai's legacy. For now, the markets seem to be in favour. Shares of Reliance Infrastructure have surged more than 42% in just the past month.As per Singhal, the rally demonstrates growing institutional confidence. The FII stake in Reliance Infrastructure has increased from 8% to 11% in recent quarters, while the market cap has grown from Rs 12,042 crore to Rs 16,360 crore, reflecting a 1.36x growth.'Market participants are viewing the Reliance Group India's strategic shift toward defence and renewable energy with cautious optimism, viewing it as a credible shift backed by tangible progress… A multi‑contract roadmap involving additional western OEMs could unlock re‑rating potential for Reliance Infra,' the Anand Rathi executive said.Analysts, however, caution that the path ahead will test project execution, governance, and policy consistency. 'Defence and renewable projects are complex; investors do understand and appreciate the long gestation periods in such capital‑intensive stocks… execution plays a key role and is expected to be closely monitored by investors,' said Singhal, while noting that financial metrics reflect steady recovery.Singhal said, 'Having secured multiple long‑term contracts in the renewable and defence sectors, Reliance Group India companies have improved its financial performance… However, the medium‑term outlook hinges on successful execution of defence and renewable projects, continued debt reduction, and transparent governance.'Does the recent resurgence of Anil Ambani mark the beginning of a lasting comeback story—a phoenix rise from the ashes? It's too early to say.